Preseason Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
120 UNC Wilmington 21.2%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +2.6      +2.3 106 +0.3 154 64.5 282 0.0 1 0.0 1
123 College of Charleston 19.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +2.4      +2.0 112 +0.4 150 74.2 48 0.0 1 0.0 1
136 Towson 17.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 12 - 6 +1.6      +0.7 146 +1.0 136 60.9 348 0.0 1 0.0 1
182 Hofstra 7.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -1.6      -3.6 277 +1.9 118 60.8 350 0.0 1 0.0 1
200 Campbell 6.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -2.4      -1.8 226 -0.5 186 65.2 262 0.0 1 0.0 1
210 Monmouth 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 9 -2.9      -1.0 203 -1.9 235 67.8 186 0.0 1 0.0 1
218 Northeastern 4.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 8 -3.2      -2.0 229 -1.2 207 68.5 169 0.0 1 0.0 1
224 Elon 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.5      -1.1 209 -2.4 254 63.5 301 0.0 1 0.0 1
225 Drexel 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -3.6      -3.8 281 +0.1 161 59.9 356 0.0 1 0.0 1
226 William & Mary 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -3.6      -0.1 166 -3.6 292 77.4 13 0.0 1 0.0 1
235 Hampton 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -4.1      -2.8 250 -1.2 209 64.5 283 0.0 1 0.0 1
298 Stony Brook 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -7.7      -3.0 259 -4.7 317 62.5 327 0.0 1 0.0 1
349 N.C. A&T 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 21 4 - 14 -12.3      -6.7 350 -5.5 335 72.4 66 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 3.5 29.4 18.5 13.7 9.8 8.0 5.9 4.6 3.6 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3
College of Charleston 3.6 27.0 18.2 14.4 10.7 7.9 6.1 4.9 3.6 2.8 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.3
Towson 3.9 25.2 18.1 13.3 10.5 8.2 6.4 5.0 4.2 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.3
Hofstra 5.9 8.7 10.1 10.1 10.2 9.8 9.2 9.0 7.9 7.7 6.7 5.4 3.6 1.5
Campbell 6.3 7.0 8.5 9.4 9.5 9.8 9.6 9.3 8.9 8.2 7.1 6.2 4.3 2.1
Monmouth 7.2 3.5 5.5 6.7 8.1 9.5 9.3 9.2 10.1 9.8 9.8 9.0 6.5 2.9
Northeastern 6.9 4.5 6.2 7.7 9.2 8.7 9.4 9.7 9.4 9.2 8.6 7.9 6.4 3.3
Elon 7.0 4.7 6.6 7.3 7.7 8.5 9.2 9.8 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.2 6.2 3.6
Drexel 7.0 4.6 6.4 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.3 8.6 8.3 6.3 3.1
William & Mary 6.8 5.1 6.7 8.1 8.6 9.4 9.3 9.6 9.0 9.1 8.9 7.4 5.6 3.3
Hampton 7.1 4.5 5.9 6.8 7.9 8.4 9.7 10.0 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.4 6.3 3.5
Stony Brook 9.4 1.0 1.7 2.7 3.6 4.6 5.5 6.7 7.7 9.2 11.9 13.9 19.1 12.3
N.C. A&T 11.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.2 4.5 7.2 11.8 21.6 44.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.8 8.4 10.5 11.9 13.0 12.1 11.4 8.2 4.6 1.6
College of Charleston 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.3 5.0 6.6 9.0 11.3 12.4 13.4 12.0 9.7 7.6 4.2 1.4
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.2 9.2 11.0 12.5 11.7 11.3 9.4 7.1 4.2 1.6
Hofstra 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.8 7.0 8.8 10.7 11.4 11.1 10.7 9.9 7.8 5.6 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.2
Campbell 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.7 7.5 9.9 10.7 11.7 11.7 10.4 9.0 7.0 4.7 3.0 1.3 0.6 0.1
Monmouth 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.4 5.2 8.0 10.0 11.6 12.4 11.7 10.6 8.9 7.1 4.7 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1
Northeastern 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.0 5.0 7.3 8.8 11.0 11.5 11.8 10.8 9.5 7.3 5.4 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.1
Elon 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.1 7.6 9.4 10.9 12.4 11.3 10.1 8.9 6.9 5.4 3.2 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1
Drexel 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 5.2 7.5 9.1 10.7 12.4 11.3 10.9 8.8 7.2 5.2 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
William & Mary 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.8 4.5 7.2 9.1 10.9 10.9 11.9 10.7 9.5 7.5 5.8 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Hampton 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 5.4 7.5 9.7 11.1 12.2 12.0 10.2 8.9 6.5 5.0 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1
Stony Brook 6 - 12 1.2 4.0 7.0 9.9 11.8 11.9 12.6 10.6 9.3 7.5 5.4 3.9 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 4 - 14 7.9 14.7 16.3 16.4 13.2 10.8 7.4 5.0 3.5 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 29.4% 20.4 7.0 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
College of Charleston 27.0% 18.4 6.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Towson 25.2% 16.8 6.4 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 8.7% 5.1 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Campbell 7.0% 3.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 3.5% 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 4.5% 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.1
Elon 4.7% 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 4.6% 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 5.1% 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hampton 4.5% 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 1.0% 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 21.2% 21.1% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.7 6.7 5.6 3.7 1.5 0.5 78.8 0.2%
College of Charleston 19.6% 19.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.7 5.9 5.2 3.6 1.4 0.4 80.4 0.1%
Towson 17.6% 17.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 5.2 5.3 3.2 1.4 0.4 82.4 0.1%
Hofstra 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.6 92.8 0.0%
Campbell 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.7 93.8 0.0%
Monmouth 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.4 94.8 0.0%
Northeastern 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 95.2 0.0%
Elon 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.6 95.3 0.0%
Drexel 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.7 95.4 0.0%
William & Mary 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 95.7 0.0%
Hampton 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 96.2 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 98.9 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 21.2% 0.3% 21.2% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 19.6% 0.2% 19.6% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 17.6% 0.2% 17.6% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 7.2% 0.4% 7.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 6.2% 0.4% 6.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 5.2% 0.2% 5.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 4.8% 0.3% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 4.7% 0.3% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 4.6% 0.3% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 4.3% 0.3% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 3.8% 0.2% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 97.6 1.3 0.0
2nd Round 10.4% 0.1 89.6 10.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0