IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Elon
Colonial Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.5	#224
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.5	#301
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.1	#209

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.4	#254

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.7%	6.7%	3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	13.6	14.2

.500 or above	39.6%	55.9%	28.5%
.500 or above in Conference	48.8%	59.9%	41.2%
Conference Champion	4.7%	7.0%	3.2%
Last Place in Conference	6.3%	3.7%	8.0%

First Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
First Round	4.7%	6.7%	3.3%
Second Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 7	4 - 12
Quad 4	10 - 5	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	232	@ UNC Greensboro	L	63-66	40%
Nov 12, 2025	185	@ Marshall	L	67-72	33%
Nov 15, 2025	307	Gardner-Webb	W	74-66	75%
Nov 20, 2025	55	@ Miami (FL)	L	63-79	7%
Nov 24, 2025	204	@ Appalachian St.	L	60-64	36%
Nov 29, 2025	246	Mercer	W	73-69	64%
Dec 03, 2025	142	Furman	L	67-69	43%
Dec 06, 2025	205	@ Wofford	L	64-68	37%
Dec 13, 2025	314	Northern Illinois	W	75-67	76%
Dec 17, 2025	131	Richmond	L	64-67	41%
Dec 20, 2025	76	@ Virginia Tech	L	60-74	12%
Dec 29, 2025	218	Northeastern	W	70-67	59%
Dec 31, 2025	123	College of Charleston	L	71-74	40%
Jan 08, 2026	349	@ N.C. A&T	W	73-67	69%
Jan 10, 2026	200	Campbell	W	68-66	56%
Jan 15, 2026	218	@ Northeastern	L	67-70	39%
Jan 17, 2026	182	@ Hofstra	L	60-65	35%
Jan 22, 2026	136	Towson	L	64-66	43%
Jan 24, 2026	123	@ College of Charleston	L	68-77	23%
Jan 29, 2026	226	William & Mary	W	76-73	61%
Jan 31, 2026	298	Stony Brook	W	70-63	72%
Feb 05, 2026	235	@ Hampton	L	65-67	42%
Feb 07, 2026	225	Drexel	W	64-61	60%
Feb 12, 2026	120	@ UNC Wilmington	L	64-73	23%
Feb 14, 2026	226	@ William & Mary	L	73-76	41%
Feb 21, 2026	349	N.C. A&T	W	76-64	84%
Feb 26, 2026	136	@ Towson	L	61-69	25%
Feb 28, 2026	210	@ Monmouth	L	67-71	38%
Mar 03, 2026	120	UNC Wilmington	L	67-70	40%
Projected Record						13 - 16	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.2	0.8	1.4	1.2	0.9	0.2	0.1		4.7	1st
2nd												0.2	1.6	2.8	1.5	0.5	0.1				6.6	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.0	3.1	1.6	0.3	0.0					7.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	1.8	3.7	1.8	0.3	0.0						7.7	4th
5th									0.1	1.6	4.1	2.5	0.3	0.0							8.5	5th
6th								0.1	1.2	4.2	3.2	0.6									9.2	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	4.3	4.1	0.8	0.0									9.8	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	3.3	4.7	1.2	0.0										9.8	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	2.5	4.5	1.9	0.1											9.4	9th
10th					0.4	2.3	4.2	2.1	0.2												9.1	10th
11th			0.1	0.4	1.9	3.6	1.9	0.3	0.0												8.2	11th
12th		0.1	0.6	1.7	2.3	1.2	0.3	0.0													6.2	12th
13th	0.2	0.7	0.9	1.2	0.5	0.1															3.6	13th

Total	0.2	0.7	1.6	3.2	5.1	7.6	9.4	10.9	12.4	11.3	10.1	8.9	6.9	5.4	3.2	1.6	0.9	0.2	0.1			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
16-2	94.1%	0.9		0.8	0.1
15-3	71.5%	1.2		0.7	0.4	0.0
14-4	43.2%	1.4		0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0
13-5	14.3%	0.8		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.5%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.7%	4.7		2.6	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		54.5%	54.5%		10.5							0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0
17-1	0.2%		37.7%	37.7%		11.8												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1
16-2	0.9%		27.4%	27.4%		12.2												0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.7
15-3	1.6%		23.3%	23.3%		12.8												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.3
14-4	3.2%		18.1%	18.1%		13.2												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.1		2.6
13-5	5.4%		14.3%	14.3%		13.7												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1		4.7
12-6	6.9%		12.4%	12.4%		14.0													0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	6.1
11-7	8.9%		7.4%	7.4%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	8.3
10-8	10.1%		4.6%	4.6%		15.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	9.6
9-9	11.3%		2.8%	2.8%		17.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	10.9
8-10	12.4%		1.5%	1.5%		16.8																0.1	0.1	12.2
7-11	10.9%		0.5%	0.5%		20.2																0.0	0.0	10.9
6-12	9.4%		0.2%	0.2%		15.7																0.0	0.0	9.4
5-13	7.6%																							7.6
4-14	5.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.1
3-15	3.2%																							3.2
2-16	1.6%																							1.6
1-17	0.7%																							0.7
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		4.7%	4.7%	0.0%	14.3							0.0				0.0	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.3	1.0	0.6	95.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%