Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
100 Liberty 23.0%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 13 - 7 +5.2      +2.2 110 +3.0 93 64.4 285 0.0 1 0.0 1
114 Missouri St. 15.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 8 +3.4      +0.4 155 +3.0 94 61.3 344 0.0 1 0.0 1
139 New Mexico St. 10.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 9 +1.5      -0.7 187 +2.2 111 63.2 310 0.0 1 0.0 1
144 Louisiana Tech 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 +0.8      -0.8 191 +1.6 120 62.5 325 0.0 1 0.0 1
146 Kennesaw St. 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 +0.8      +1.3 126 -0.5 181 74.2 47 0.0 1 0.0 1
151 Middle Tennessee 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 10 +0.4      -0.3 170 +0.7 140 70.0 121 0.0 1 0.0 1
154 Jacksonville St. 7.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 +0.1      -1.0 204 +1.1 130 63.1 312 0.0 1 0.0 1
160 UTEP 6.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 10 -0.3      -1.7 224 +1.3 124 70.4 112 0.0 1 0.0 1
161 Western Kentucky 6.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 11 -0.5      -0.4 175 -0.1 169 77.8 11 0.0 1 0.0 1
199 Sam Houston St. 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 12 -2.3      -0.7 189 -1.5 219 68.7 158 0.0 1 0.0 1
209 Florida International 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 12 -2.8      -2.4 243 -0.3 178 70.5 111 0.0 1 0.0 1
236 Delaware 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 13 -4.2      -0.5 180 -3.7 297 74.7 35 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 3.4 32.0 18.4 12.9 9.4 6.8 5.7 4.7 3.5 2.5 2.0 1.4 0.7
Missouri St. 4.3 20.4 16.5 12.8 10.8 8.8 7.7 6.3 5.6 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.5
New Mexico St. 5.4 12.3 11.4 11.2 10.4 9.6 9.2 8.3 7.7 6.8 5.5 4.6 3.1
Louisiana Tech 5.7 9.9 10.3 11.1 9.8 9.5 9.0 9.0 8.0 7.5 6.7 5.5 3.8
Kennesaw St. 5.8 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.1 9.3 8.7 8.4 7.5 7.1 5.5 4.0
Middle Tennessee 5.8 9.8 9.9 10.0 9.8 10.0 8.7 8.8 8.2 7.8 6.6 5.8 4.5
Jacksonville St. 6.1 8.2 8.9 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.2 9.3 8.5 8.0 7.1 6.5 5.3
UTEP 6.5 6.7 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.0 8.1 8.0 5.8
Western Kentucky 6.7 6.0 7.2 8.4 8.2 8.9 9.4 9.1 8.9 9.3 9.1 8.3 7.2
Sam Houston St. 7.5 3.4 4.6 5.9 6.9 7.7 9.0 9.2 9.6 10.1 11.3 11.2 11.2
Florida International 7.9 2.9 3.7 4.9 6.0 6.9 7.4 8.7 10.1 11.0 11.7 13.0 13.7
Delaware 8.7 1.8 2.2 3.5 4.1 5.4 5.9 7.4 8.8 11.2 13.2 16.7 19.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.4 5.0 6.0 7.7 8.7 10.6 10.9 11.3 10.2 8.5 6.7 3.9 1.5
Missouri St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.8 5.5 7.1 8.1 9.5 10.2 10.7 10.0 9.4 7.8 5.7 3.8 1.8 0.5
New Mexico St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.1 3.2 4.7 6.5 7.6 9.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 9.0 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2
Louisiana Tech 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.4 4.0 5.7 7.0 8.5 9.4 9.7 10.0 9.5 9.3 7.6 5.2 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1
Kennesaw St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.6 4.2 5.8 7.6 8.5 9.2 10.3 10.1 9.8 8.3 7.5 5.0 4.1 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1
Middle Tennessee 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.3 6.0 7.1 8.5 9.5 9.8 10.2 9.2 8.5 6.8 5.6 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
Jacksonville St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.5 4.6 5.9 7.7 9.3 9.6 10.5 10.0 8.9 7.5 6.5 4.9 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
UTEP 10 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.0 5.7 7.0 8.5 9.6 10.0 10.0 10.1 8.5 7.1 5.4 4.0 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
Western Kentucky 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 4.5 5.8 7.5 9.0 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.5 8.4 6.5 5.3 3.9 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Sam Houston St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 2.9 4.5 6.1 8.4 9.0 10.0 10.8 9.6 9.3 8.2 6.4 5.1 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida International 8 - 12 0.6 1.7 3.5 5.6 7.6 9.0 9.7 10.7 10.4 9.5 8.5 7.2 5.5 3.9 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Delaware 7 - 13 0.9 2.9 5.3 7.5 9.8 11.1 10.7 11.0 9.9 8.2 6.8 5.1 4.1 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 32.0% 23.3 7.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 20.4% 14.0 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St. 12.3% 7.7 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 9.9% 6.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 9.4% 6.0 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 9.8% 5.9 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 8.2% 5.0 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 6.7% 4.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 6.0% 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 3.4% 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida International 2.9% 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 1.8% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 23.0% 22.4% 0.7% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 6.7 7.8 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 77.0 0.8%
Missouri St. 15.5% 15.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 3.9 5.6 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.2 84.5 0.5%
New Mexico St. 10.2% 10.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 3.6 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 89.8 0.2%
Louisiana Tech 8.8% 8.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 91.2 0.1%
Kennesaw St. 8.4% 8.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 91.6 0.1%
Middle Tennessee 7.7% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 92.3 0.1%
Jacksonville St. 7.3% 7.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.5 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 92.7 0.1%
UTEP 6.4% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 93.6 0.1%
Western Kentucky 6.1% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 93.9 0.1%
Sam Houston St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 96.6 0.0%
Florida International 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 97.1 0.0%
Delaware 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 98.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 23.0% 0.4% 22.9% 5.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 15.5% 0.4% 15.4% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 10.2% 0.3% 10.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 8.8% 0.2% 8.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.4% 0.2% 8.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 7.7% 0.3% 7.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 7.3% 0.2% 7.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 6.4% 0.3% 6.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 6.1% 0.2% 6.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 3.4% 0.2% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.9% 0.2% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 1.9% 0.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.2 1.8
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 97.8 1.7 0.0
2nd Round 16.2% 0.2 83.8 16.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0