Preseason Rankings
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#151
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.0#121
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#170
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#140
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 9.9% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.2 13.1
.500 or above 43.7% 55.9% 28.9%
.500 or above in Conference 58.8% 67.1% 48.7%
Conference Champion 9.8% 13.0% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 4.9% 10.4%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round7.7% 9.9% 5.1%
Second Round1.1% 1.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 78 - 14
Quad 46 - 214 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2025 231   @ Evansville W 69-68 55%    
  Nov 19, 2025 6   @ Michigan L 63-85 2%    
  Nov 23, 2025 129   Murray St. L 67-69 44%    
  Nov 24, 2025 85   George Washington L 69-75 29%    
  Nov 25, 2025 93   McNeese St. L 66-71 32%    
  Dec 01, 2025 103   UAB L 74-76 45%    
  Dec 07, 2025 111   Belmont L 76-77 49%    
  Dec 17, 2025 146   Kennesaw St. W 77-74 59%    
  Dec 29, 2025 1   @ Houston L 51-78 1%    
  Jan 02, 2026 144   Louisiana Tech W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 04, 2026 199   Sam Houston St. W 75-69 69%    
  Jan 08, 2026 160   @ UTEP L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 10, 2026 139   @ New Mexico St. L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 14, 2026 144   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 17, 2026 114   Missouri St. W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 24, 2026 154   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-69 42%    
  Jan 28, 2026 100   Liberty L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 31, 2026 161   Western Kentucky W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 04, 2026 209   Florida International W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 07, 2026 236   @ Delaware W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 12, 2026 146   @ Kennesaw St. L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 14, 2026 161   @ Western Kentucky L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 18, 2026 199   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 21, 2026 236   Delaware W 80-72 74%    
  Feb 26, 2026 160   UTEP W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 28, 2026 139   New Mexico St. W 68-66 56%    
  Mar 05, 2026 209   @ Florida International W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 07, 2026 114   @ Missouri St. L 63-69 32%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.6 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.0 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.7 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.1 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 4.0 2.6 0.3 8.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 3.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.3 1.5 3.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 1.8 0.6 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.3 6.0 7.1 8.5 9.5 9.8 10.2 9.2 8.5 6.8 5.6 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 94.4% 1.3    1.2 0.1 0.0
17-3 80.8% 2.1    1.5 0.5 0.0
16-4 63.0% 2.6    1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.4% 2.0    0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 12.3% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.9 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 66.8% 56.9% 9.8% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.8%
19-1 0.5% 52.6% 51.3% 1.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2.7%
18-2 1.4% 43.1% 40.6% 2.5% 11.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 4.2%
17-3 2.5% 31.0% 30.5% 0.6% 11.6 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.8%
16-4 4.2% 27.3% 27.3% 11.9 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.1
15-5 5.6% 21.0% 21.0% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.4
14-6 6.8% 15.2% 15.2% 12.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.8
13-7 8.5% 11.8% 11.8% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.5
12-8 9.2% 6.8% 6.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.5
11-9 10.2% 3.4% 3.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8
10-10 9.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.5
9-11 9.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.4
8-12 8.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 8.4
7-13 7.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.1
6-14 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.0
5-15 4.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-16 2.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 92.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%