Preseason Rankings
Summit League
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
149 St. Thomas 26.8%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 5 +0.5      +1.9 115 -1.4 215 69.2 142 0.0 1 0.0 1
155 South Dakota St. 25.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 5 +0.1      +1.2 130 -1.0 202 71.6 79 0.0 1 0.0 1
177 Nebraska Omaha 18.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 9 - 6 -1.2      +1.3 125 -2.5 259 68.5 170 0.0 1 0.0 1
215 North Dakota St. 13.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 7 -3.1      +0.1 162 -3.2 280 63.6 299 0.0 1 0.0 1
294 South Dakota 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 9 -7.4      -0.4 176 -7.0 352 83.8 3 0.0 1 0.0 1
300 UMKC 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 9 -7.7      -5.9 330 -1.8 230 62.4 330 0.0 1 0.0 1
315 North Dakota 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 10 -8.8      -3.0 260 -5.8 342 71.6 81 0.0 1 0.0 1
318 Oral Roberts 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 19 6 - 9 -9.0      -3.0 261 -6.0 345 68.1 181 0.0 1 0.0 1
322 Denver 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 10 -9.6      -4.8 309 -4.8 321 66.4 222 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
St. Thomas 2.6 37.9 22.6 14.6 10.2 6.5 4.0 2.4 1.2 0.6
South Dakota St. 2.7 34.7 23.0 15.5 10.4 6.9 4.4 2.7 1.6 0.8
Nebraska Omaha 3.6 16.4 19.1 18.4 15.7 11.4 7.9 5.7 3.5 1.8
North Dakota St. 3.8 17.0 17.7 16.8 15.0 11.4 8.9 6.5 4.3 2.5
South Dakota 5.5 4.4 7.7 9.6 12.2 14.1 14.7 13.6 12.9 10.7
UMKC 5.6 3.9 6.8 9.6 12.0 13.4 14.6 14.7 14.1 10.9
North Dakota 6.1 2.6 4.9 7.3 10.0 12.8 14.2 15.5 16.6 15.9
Oral Roberts 6.3 1.9 4.1 6.6 9.3 11.6 14.8 16.8 17.7 17.3
Denver 6.4 2.1 4.2 5.8 8.5 11.4 14.4 15.7 18.2 19.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
St. Thomas 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.1 4.9 7.2 9.7 11.9 13.7 14.5 13.0 10.3 6.2 2.6
South Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.6 7.4 10.2 12.4 13.6 13.9 12.6 9.5 5.5 2.0
Nebraska Omaha 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.9 4.3 6.5 9.5 11.8 13.8 13.2 13.1 10.4 7.4 3.8 1.1
North Dakota St. 9 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.1 7.2 9.9 11.6 12.9 13.1 11.1 9.7 6.5 4.3 2.0 0.6
South Dakota 7 - 9 0.6 2.0 4.3 6.8 9.7 11.0 13.1 13.0 11.8 9.4 7.1 5.3 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1
UMKC 7 - 9 0.6 2.1 4.7 7.5 10.1 12.1 13.1 12.4 11.5 9.0 7.2 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
North Dakota 6 - 10 1.1 3.2 6.3 9.7 12.3 13.1 13.0 11.9 10.1 7.6 5.0 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oral Roberts 6 - 10 1.2 3.8 6.7 10.4 13.2 14.1 13.3 11.8 9.2 7.0 4.3 2.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Denver 6 - 10 1.5 4.7 7.6 11.4 12.5 13.8 12.9 11.3 8.9 5.9 4.5 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Thomas 37.9% 27.8 8.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 34.7% 25.1 7.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 16.4% 10.1 5.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 17.0% 11.1 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Dakota 4.4% 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UMKC 3.9% 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 2.6% 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Denver 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Thomas 26.8% 26.8% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.3 6.6 6.7 5.4 3.3 73.2 0.0%
South Dakota St. 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.2 6.2 6.2 4.9 3.2 74.8 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.0 4.8 4.4 3.7 81.1 0.0%
North Dakota St. 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.3 3.5 3.4 86.8 0.0%
South Dakota 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 95.7 0.0%
UMKC 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.9 96.0 0.0%
North Dakota 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 97.2 0.0%
Oral Roberts 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 97.2 0.0%
Denver 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 97.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Thomas 26.8% 1.6% 26.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 25.2% 1.7% 25.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 18.9% 2.1% 18.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 13.2% 2.1% 13.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 4.3% 1.5% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 4.0% 1.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 2.8% 1.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 2.8% 1.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 2.1% 0.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 94.9% 1.0 5.1 91.4 3.5
2nd Round 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0