Pre-tourney Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#44
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#29
Pace61.6#340
Improvement-2.2#282

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#24
First Shot+8.8#13
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#239
Layup/Dunks-1.2#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.5#9
Freethrows+1.4#76
Improvement-1.9#278

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#94
First Shot+3.7#56
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#262
Layups/Dunks+6.9#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#184
Freethrows+2.6#30
Improvement-0.4#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 17.3% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.8% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.8% n/a n/a
Average Seed 7.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% n/a n/a
First Round81.9% n/a n/a
Second Round39.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen9.4% n/a n/a
Elite Eight3.1% n/a n/a
Final Four0.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 33 - 4
Quad 25 - 38 - 7
Quad 310 - 018 - 7
Quad 46 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 292   SIU Edwardsville W 63-47 96%     1 - 0 +6.3 -6.1 +14.5
  Nov 10, 2023 40   @ Northwestern L 66-71 38%     1 - 1 +8.9 +12.4 -4.5
  Nov 16, 2023 87   LSU W 70-67 66%     2 - 1 +9.6 +6.8 +3.1
  Nov 17, 2023 25   St. John's W 88-81 41%     3 - 1 +20.1 +16.6 +3.3
  Nov 19, 2023 2   Houston L 55-69 17%     3 - 2 +7.0 +7.3 -3.6
  Nov 24, 2023 141   Youngstown St. W 77-69 86%     4 - 2 +7.1 +8.2 -0.6
  Nov 29, 2023 71   @ SMU W 65-63 52%     5 - 2 +12.2 +6.2 +6.3
  Dec 02, 2023 282   Grambling St. W 76-46 96%     6 - 2 +21.2 +11.1 +14.2
  Dec 09, 2023 131   Troy W 82-70 85%     7 - 2 +11.9 +14.5 -1.9
  Dec 16, 2023 34   Cincinnati W 82-68 46%     8 - 2 +25.8 +22.2 +4.6
  Dec 20, 2023 142   Oakland W 91-67 87%     9 - 2 +22.9 +28.7 -2.7
  Dec 30, 2023 163   Longwood W 78-69 89%     10 - 2 +6.5 +14.1 -6.5
  Jan 03, 2024 126   @ Davidson W 72-59 71%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +18.2 +7.1 +11.7
  Jan 07, 2024 97   Massachusetts W 64-60 77%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +7.2 +0.2 +7.5
  Jan 12, 2024 91   @ Duquesne W 72-62 58%     13 - 2 3 - 0 +18.9 +10.6 +8.9
  Jan 16, 2024 191   Saint Louis W 70-65 91%     14 - 2 4 - 0 +0.9 -4.3 +5.6
  Jan 20, 2024 210   Rhode Island W 96-62 92%     15 - 2 5 - 0 +28.8 +28.8 +3.4
  Jan 23, 2024 192   @ La Salle W 66-54 82%     16 - 2 6 - 0 +13.0 +0.8 +13.6
  Jan 27, 2024 88   @ Richmond L 64-69 57%     16 - 3 6 - 1 +4.1 -0.2 +4.2
  Jan 30, 2024 203   George Washington W 83-61 92%     17 - 3 7 - 1 +17.2 +6.3 +11.0
  Feb 02, 2024 102   St. Bonaventure W 76-71 79%     18 - 3 8 - 1 +7.5 +12.6 -4.5
  Feb 06, 2024 105   @ Saint Joseph's W 94-79 63%     19 - 3 9 - 1 +22.4 +20.1 +1.6
  Feb 09, 2024 81   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 47-49 56%     19 - 4 9 - 2 +7.4 -12.7 +19.8
  Feb 13, 2024 91   Duquesne W 75-59 75%     20 - 4 10 - 2 +19.7 +18.4 +3.8
  Feb 17, 2024 185   Fordham W 78-70 91%     21 - 4 11 - 2 +4.3 +15.8 -10.4
  Feb 21, 2024 101   @ George Mason L 67-71 62%     21 - 5 11 - 3 +3.7 +10.9 -8.0
  Feb 27, 2024 126   Davidson W 80-66 85%     22 - 5 12 - 3 +14.0 +12.5 +2.1
  Mar 01, 2024 92   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-77 58%     22 - 6 12 - 4 +3.9 +3.5 +0.6
  Mar 05, 2024 191   @ Saint Louis W 100-83 82%     23 - 6 13 - 4 +18.1 +22.1 -4.1
  Mar 08, 2024 81   Virginia Commonwealth W 91-86 OT 74%     24 - 6 14 - 4 +9.2 +13.9 -5.1
  Mar 14, 2024 91   Duquesne L 57-65 67%     24 - 7 -1.7 -2.5 -0.2
  Mar 21, 2024 41   Nevada L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 24 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 82.8% 82.8% 7.7 0.0 2.2 15.0 18.4 21.6 17.8 7.3 0.5 17.2 82.8%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 82.8% 0.0% 82.8% 7.7 0.0 2.2 15.0 18.4 21.6 17.8 7.3 0.5 17.2 82.8%