Pre-tourney Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#21
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#35
Pace58.4#359
Improvement+5.8#17

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#45
First Shot+1.5#142
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#7
Layup/Dunks+7.1#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#177
Freethrows-1.0#248
Improvement+6.0#2

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#18
First Shot+8.4#6
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#268
Layups/Dunks+3.5#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#19
Freethrows-0.1#201
Improvement-0.2#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 1.8% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 58.1% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 6.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round63.4% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen24.6% n/a n/a
Elite Eight9.4% n/a n/a
Final Four3.2% n/a n/a
Championship Game1.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.3% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 15 - 3
Quad 23 - 28 - 5
Quad 35 - 213 - 7
Quad 412 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 24   New Mexico W 72-58 61%     1 - 0 +24.5 +7.6 +17.6
  Nov 12, 2023 162   Weber St. L 57-61 92%     1 - 1 -6.4 -14.0 +7.3
  Nov 17, 2023 28   San Diego St. L 54-79 52%     1 - 2 -12.1 -3.7 -11.5
  Nov 19, 2023 57   Xavier L 49-66 65%     1 - 3 -7.5 -16.3 +7.8
  Nov 24, 2023 126   Davidson W 89-55 89%     2 - 3 +34.0 +28.6 +9.4
  Nov 27, 2023 47   Utah L 71-78 70%     2 - 4 +1.1 +4.2 -3.2
  Dec 01, 2023 45   Boise St. L 60-63 60%     2 - 5 +7.8 -0.3 +7.8
  Dec 05, 2023 197   Cleveland St. W 70-57 94%     3 - 5 +8.4 -6.4 +14.9
  Dec 09, 2023 48   @ Colorado St. W 64-61 51%     4 - 5 +16.2 +6.1 +10.5
  Dec 16, 2023 73   UNLV W 69-67 2OT 72%     5 - 5 +9.5 -6.4 +15.7
  Dec 19, 2023 265   Middle Tennessee W 71-34 97%     6 - 5 +29.0 +7.6 +27.0
  Dec 21, 2023 194   Northern Kentucky W 92-56 94%     7 - 5 +31.7 +26.8 +8.2
  Dec 23, 2023 149   Missouri St. L 64-69 91%     7 - 6 -6.5 -0.1 -7.0
  Dec 29, 2023 173   Kent St. W 66-46 93%     8 - 6 +16.8 -3.6 +22.0
  Jan 04, 2024 257   @ San Diego W 81-70 92%     9 - 6 1 - 0 +8.6 +8.2 +0.4
  Jan 06, 2024 180   @ Loyola Marymount W 68-64 86%     10 - 6 2 - 0 +5.7 +4.0 +2.2
  Jan 11, 2024 286   Portland W 95-52 97%     11 - 6 3 - 0 +33.9 +27.6 +11.7
  Jan 13, 2024 107   @ Santa Clara W 73-49 73%     12 - 6 4 - 0 +31.2 +18.4 +17.7
  Jan 20, 2024 72   @ San Francisco W 77-60 63%     13 - 6 5 - 0 +27.1 +14.4 +13.7
  Jan 25, 2024 353   Pacific W 76-28 99%     14 - 6 6 - 0 +30.4 +6.1 +31.8
  Jan 27, 2024 180   Loyola Marymount W 70-65 93%     15 - 6 7 - 0 +1.5 +5.2 -2.9
  Jan 31, 2024 107   Santa Clara W 82-77 86%     16 - 6 8 - 0 +7.0 +15.7 -8.3
  Feb 03, 2024 15   @ Gonzaga W 64-62 34%     17 - 6 9 - 0 +19.9 +9.7 +10.5
  Feb 06, 2024 353   @ Pacific W 84-43 98%     18 - 6 10 - 0 +28.6 +17.2 +17.4
  Feb 10, 2024 286   @ Portland W 76-51 94%     19 - 6 11 - 0 +21.1 +6.2 +17.1
  Feb 15, 2024 196   Pepperdine W 103-59 94%     20 - 6 12 - 0 +39.4 +28.9 +11.6
  Feb 20, 2024 72   San Francisco W 70-66 79%     21 - 6 13 - 0 +8.9 +13.6 -3.9
  Feb 24, 2024 257   San Diego W 88-62 96%     22 - 6 14 - 0 +18.4 +17.2 +2.5
  Feb 29, 2024 196   @ Pepperdine W 83-57 88%     23 - 6 15 - 0 +26.6 +16.3 +12.5
  Mar 02, 2024 15   Gonzaga L 57-70 53%     23 - 7 15 - 1 -0.3 -1.7 -1.0
  Mar 11, 2024 107   Santa Clara W 79-65 80%     24 - 7 +18.6 +18.3 +2.1
  Mar 12, 2024 15   Gonzaga W 69-60 43%     25 - 7 +24.3 +9.2 +16.1
  Mar 22, 2024 59   Grand Canyon W 69-65 65%    
Projected Record 26 - 7 15 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 6.4 0.0 1.7 22.2 34.1 25.3 11.5 4.3 0.8 0.0
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6.4 0.0 1.7 22.2 34.1 25.3 11.5 4.3 0.8 0.0