Harvard
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
34  Courtney Smith SO 19:40
333  Elianna Shwayder SO 20:39
410  Paige Kouba SR 20:46
468  Kathryn Gillespie FR 20:51
509  Emma Payne SR 20:56
781  Rachel Hampton JR 21:18
893  Madeleine Ankhelyi JR 21:27
1,521  Malia Ellington FR 22:11
1,577  Fiona Davis SO 22:14
1,808  Emily Aiken FR 22:29
National Rank #45 of 339
Northeast Region Rank #7 of 43
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 6.3%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.5%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 35.8%
Top 10 in Regional 94.1%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Courtney Smith Elianna Shwayder Paige Kouba Kathryn Gillespie Emma Payne Rachel Hampton Madeleine Ankhelyi Malia Ellington Fiona Davis Emily Aiken
Coast to Coast Battle in Beantown 09/25 715 19:42 20:39 20:17 20:34 21:07 21:02 21:11 22:14 21:57
NEICAAA Championship 10/10 1293 21:22 22:21
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 826 19:34 20:41 20:47 21:09 20:55 21:25 22:39
Brown - Rothenberg Collegiate Meet 10/16 21:31 22:14 22:58
Ivy League Championships 10/30 842 19:38 20:44 21:35 20:46 20:50 21:19 21:43 22:22
Northeast Region Championships 11/13 821 19:43 20:34 20:44 21:05 20:58 21:33 21:17
NCAA Championship 11/21 19:51





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 6.3% 25.9 617 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2
Region Championship 100% 6.6 204 0.0 2.3 9.4 11.4 12.7 14.3 13.6 12.4 10.7 7.4 3.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Courtney Smith 87.3% 37.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3
Elianna Shwayder 6.3% 168.3
Paige Kouba 6.3% 184.9
Kathryn Gillespie 6.3% 196.6
Emma Payne 6.3% 204.6
Rachel Hampton 6.3% 236.0
Madeleine Ankhelyi 6.3% 243.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Courtney Smith 4.3 12.6 12.1 12.0 10.6 9.7 8.7 7.1 6.5 4.7 3.9 2.9 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elianna Shwayder 36.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.6
Paige Kouba 44.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.3
Kathryn Gillespie 51.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
Emma Payne 57.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
Rachel Hampton 91.3 0.0
Madeleine Ankhelyi 103.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 1
2 2.3% 100.0% 2.3 2.3 2
3 9.4% 24.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 7.1 2.3 3
4 11.4% 8.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.4 1.0 4
5 12.7% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.2 0.4 5
6 14.3% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.2 0.1 6
7 13.6% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.1 7
8 12.4% 0.3% 0.0 12.4 0.0 8
9 10.7% 10.7 9
10 7.4% 7.4 10
11 3.7% 3.7 11
12 1.4% 1.4 12
13 0.5% 0.5 13
14 0.1% 0.1 14
15 0.1% 0.1 15
16 0.0% 0.0 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
Total 100% 6.3% 0.0 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 93.7 2.3 4.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
SMU 21.4% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 11.7% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.3% 1.0 0.1
Brown 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 2.9% 2.0 0.1
Boston College 1.4% 2.0 0.0
New Hampshire 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.6
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 5.0