All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Valley Kickoff |
Larry James Invitational |
Rudy Skorupa Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
New Prairie Kickoff Classic |
Eagle Classic |
New Prairie Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Duneland Athletic Conference |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/17 |
8/23 |
8/30 |
9/6 |
9/9 |
9/13 |
9/20 |
9/27 |
10/4 |
| Team Rating |
407 | |
404 |
353 |
416 |
425 |
|
415 |
459 |
479 |
338 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
360 |
353 |
416 |
425 |
407 |
381 |
393 |
416 |
338 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Valley Kickoff |
Larry James Invitational |
Rudy Skorupa Invitational |
Marion Invitational |
New Prairie Kickoff Classic |
Eagle Classic |
New Prairie Invitational |
Culver Academies Invitational |
Duneland Athletic Conference |
|---|
| 51 |
Ryan Nix |
11 |
16:16 |
16:41 |
16:17 |
16:08 |
16:16 |
16:46 |
|
16:07 |
16:17 |
16:13 |
16:02 |
| 111 |
Spencer Martin |
11 |
16:37 |
16:08 |
|
16:45 |
16:38 |
16:32 |
|
16:37 |
|
|
16:37 |
| 311 |
William Roberson |
12 |
17:17 |
18:17 |
16:57 |
16:58 |
17:23 |
17:27 |
|
|
17:17 |
17:18 |
17:14 |
| 324 |
Nick Jakel |
11 |
17:18 |
18:01 |
17:12 |
17:05 |
17:19 |
17:09 |
|
17:08 |
17:15 |
17:29 |
17:28 |
| 386 |
Nolen Harrington |
11 |
17:27 |
17:46 |
17:15 |
17:28 |
17:37 |
17:18 |
|
17:23 |
17:18 |
17:29 |
17:31 |
| 401 |
William Morgan |
12 |
17:29 |
17:40 |
17:57 |
17:17 |
17:25 |
17:38 |
|
|
17:32 |
17:23 |
17:03 |
| 551 |
Aaron Pieters |
10 |
17:47 |
18:32 |
17:15 |
17:39 |
17:37 |
19:40 |
|
17:42 |
17:39 |
18:30 |
18:02 |
| 567 |
Xander Sierazy |
10 |
17:49 |
19:15 |
17:45 |
17:43 |
17:44 |
17:30 |
|
17:56 |
18:00 |
17:41 |
17:52 |
| 599 |
Ray Hundt |
12 |
17:52 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
18:27 |
18:21 |
17:33 |
17:03 |
| 918 |
Elijah Fletcher |
10 |
18:22 |
|
17:50 |
18:14 |
18:13 |
18:14 |
|
18:29 |
19:39 |
18:51 |
18:39 |
| 1,109 |
Logan Booth |
12 |
18:37 |
19:07 |
18:39 |
18:24 |
19:07 |
18:38 |
|
18:21 |
18:29 |
18:34 |
18:41 |
| 1,112 |
Max Redman |
10 |
18:38 |
|
18:23 |
18:22 |
18:48 |
18:39 |
18:44 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,202 |
Nathan Fernandez |
10 |
18:45 |
|
19:17 |
18:40 |
18:32 |
18:19 |
|
18:26 |
18:51 |
19:23 |
18:50 |
|
Colton Beckwith |
10 |
19:02 |
18:50 |
20:34 |
19:15 |
19:10 |
19:45 |
20:50 |
|
18:53 |
18:48 |
18:39 |
|
Jeffrey DiCesare |
12 |
19:04 |
|
19:21 |
18:47 |
19:03 |
18:56 |
18:55 |
|
|
20:25 |
19:15 |
|
Wyatt Lambersie |
11 |
19:04 |
|
19:22 |
18:52 |
18:43 |
18:58 |
19:06 |
|
19:20 |
18:57 |
19:11 |
|
Ben Hiestand |
9 |
19:33 |
|
20:24 |
20:14 |
19:40 |
19:23 |
19:43 |
|
19:12 |
19:08 |
18:59 |
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
80.6% |
20.6 |
501 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
5.0 |
6.7 |
8.3 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
10.8 |
10.0 |
8.4 |
5.2 |
| Regionals |
100% |
4.3 |
164 |
0.3 |
6.6 |
24.0 |
26.6 |
23.0 |
12.6 |
4.8 |
1.5 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.0 |
25 |
96.0 |
4.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ryan Nix |
99.9% |
53.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
99.7% |
99.9% |
| Spencer Martin |
93.0% |
109.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
64.2% |
87.7% |
| William Roberson |
80.6% |
207.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
1.1% |
| Nick Jakel |
80.6% |
208.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.7% |
| Nolen Harrington |
80.6% |
219.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| William Morgan |
80.6% |
220.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Aaron Pieters |
80.6% |
232.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ryan Nix |
100% |
5.9 |
|
2.0 |
8.2 |
15.3 |
13.1 |
12.3 |
9.7 |
7.8 |
6.2 |
5.2 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Spencer Martin |
100% |
17.9 |
|
|
|
0.2 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
|
100.0% |
| William Roberson |
100% |
50.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Nick Jakel |
100% |
51.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Nolen Harrington |
100% |
62.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| William Morgan |
100% |
64.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Aaron Pieters |
100% |
86.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ryan Nix |
1.0 |
96.8 |
3.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Spencer Martin |
1.7 |
1.3 |
73.4 |
21.4 |
3.7 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| William Roberson |
5.7 |
|
|
1.9 |
9.0 |
23.1 |
22.0 |
16.3 |
11.9 |
8.0 |
4.3 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nick Jakel |
6.1 |
|
|
1.3 |
7.2 |
19.8 |
20.7 |
17.7 |
13.3 |
9.3 |
5.5 |
3.0 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nolen Harrington |
8.5 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.7 |
3.2 |
7.4 |
14.5 |
16.1 |
15.9 |
15.6 |
12.4 |
6.4 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| William Morgan |
9.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
5.6 |
10.0 |
15.3 |
16.6 |
17.6 |
13.9 |
8.0 |
4.9 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
|
|
| Aaron Pieters |
13.6 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.6 |
4.2 |
8.0 |
14.4 |
13.6 |
13.3 |
11.7 |
9.9 |
7.2 |
5.3 |
4.0 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
