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2024 - 2025 - 2026
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State Rank #33
Shelbyville Regional Rank #9
Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 10th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.1%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff Mt. Vernon Invite/County Hancock County Rick Weinheimer Classic Wildcat/Jackson Classic Invitational Flashrock Invitational Hoosier Heritage Conference XC Town Twilight Delta Eagle Invitational
Date 8/17 8/30 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11
Team Rating 463 496 569 583 649 613 760 763 691 884
Team Adjusted Rating 406 444 455 470 443 541 466 557 579
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff Mt. Vernon Invite/County Hancock County Rick Weinheimer Classic Wildcat/Jackson Classic Invitational Flashrock Invitational Hoosier Heritage Conference XC Town Twilight Delta Eagle Invitational
79  Bryce Cotterman 11 16:28 16:33 16:25 16:28 16:30 16:41 16:17 17:40
186  John Wait 10 16:52 16:55 16:52 17:54
262  Braylon Mumaugh 11 17:09 17:03 17:05 17:07 17:08 17:15 16:59 17:09 17:13 17:32
374  David Wasson 12 17:25 17:42 17:07 17:17 17:19 17:22 17:13 17:35 17:27 17:28 17:56
554  Henry Rahe 11 17:48 16:56 17:26 17:47 17:49 18:36
980  Otto Sickels 10 18:27 17:58 19:18 18:31 19:13 18:11 17:59 18:20
1,037  Adam Shields 11 18:31 19:02 18:16 18:29 18:32 18:27 18:25 18:33 18:26 18:54
1,067  Maeson Robinson 9 18:34 18:57 18:28 18:30 18:29 18:24 18:58 18:24 18:23 18:43
1,147  Michael Peterson 11 18:41 18:32 18:43 18:46 18:56 18:36 18:35 18:26 18:31 18:56
1,335  Jaxon Conaway 11 18:56 18:30 18:42 18:45 18:53 18:59 18:55 19:13 19:11 19:30
Parker Lawson 9 19:35 19:45 19:48 19:58 19:24 19:54 19:16 19:13 19:09




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 0.1% 14.6 396 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 9.9 286 0.1 0.4 2.4 9.8 24.7 30.2 22.4 7.8 1.6 0.3 0.1
Sectionals 100% 3.1 75 0.0 2.2 83.0 14.8



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bryce Cotterman 89.8% 80.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 89.8% 89.8%
John Wait 17.8% 129.3 17.7% 17.8%
Braylon Mumaugh 0.7% 157.3 0.6% 0.7%
David Wasson 0.1% 164.5 0.0% 0.0%
Henry Rahe 0.1% 216.5 0.0% 0.0%
Otto Sickels 0.1% 236.3 0.0% 0.0%
Adam Shields 0.1% 237.5 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bryce Cotterman 100% 20.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.7 2.5 3.3 3.0 4.0 3.6 4.0 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.4 3.6 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.3 2.8 100.0%
John Wait 100% 46.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 100.0%
Braylon Mumaugh 100% 67.8 0.0 100.0%
David Wasson 100% 86.6 100.0%
Henry Rahe 100% 110.5 100.0%
Otto Sickels 100% 152.1 100.0%
Adam Shields 100% 156.5 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bryce Cotterman 3.9 4.2 17.6 13.3 17.4 13.1 12.4 9.0 6.8 3.9 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
John Wait 9.6 0.7 1.2 3.2 4.4 7.3 9.4 14.5 15.2 12.5 9.2 6.7 5.7 4.1 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Braylon Mumaugh 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 3.1 5.8 8.4 8.2 10.4 11.2 11.3 13.1 10.6 6.9 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
David Wasson 19.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.4 4.9 7.0 11.8 15.2 13.4 13.1 10.6 8.0 4.7 2.2
Henry Rahe 24.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.9 6.5 8.9 15.8 16.5
Otto Sickels 33.4 0.0
Adam Shields 34.8 0.0