All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Hamilton County |
Harrison Invite |
Eagle Classic |
Ben Davis Invitational |
Flashrock Invitational |
Hoosier Crossroads Conference |
XC Town Twilight |
Brownsburg JV Invitational |
Noblesville Sectional |
Shelbyville Regional |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/30 |
9/6 |
9/13 |
9/13 |
9/20 |
9/27 |
10/4 |
10/11 |
10/18 |
10/25 |
| Team Rating |
306 | |
329 |
305 |
312 |
728 |
356 |
313 |
292 |
529 |
360 |
298 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
322 |
303 |
298 |
306 |
313 |
313 |
292 |
317 |
360 |
298 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Hamilton County |
Harrison Invite |
Eagle Classic |
Ben Davis Invitational |
Flashrock Invitational |
Hoosier Crossroads Conference |
XC Town Twilight |
Brownsburg JV Invitational |
Noblesville Sectional |
Shelbyville Regional |
|---|
| 87 |
Bryce Pittman |
11 |
16:28 |
17:05 |
16:16 |
16:29 |
16:29 |
|
16:34 |
16:23 |
16:06 |
|
16:43 |
16:25 |
| 117 |
Luke Moulder |
11 |
16:36 |
16:36 |
16:56 |
16:33 |
16:32 |
|
16:34 |
16:35 |
16:19 |
|
18:09 |
16:50 |
| 128 |
Nathan McKeever |
11 |
16:39 |
17:04 |
16:37 |
16:31 |
16:21 |
|
|
16:58 |
16:45 |
|
16:30 |
16:37 |
| 202 |
Carson Ackley |
11 |
16:53 |
17:25 |
17:01 |
17:00 |
17:03 |
|
16:56 |
16:57 |
16:58 |
|
17:17 |
16:44 |
| 227 |
Caleb Haney |
12 |
16:58 |
16:57 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
17:20 |
17:06 |
16:41 |
16:49 |
| 305 |
Deagan Imel |
11 |
17:13 |
18:05 |
17:09 |
16:59 |
17:18 |
|
17:08 |
17:14 |
17:25 |
|
17:07 |
17:09 |
| 314 |
Chase Niccum |
11 |
17:14 |
17:59 |
17:18 |
17:15 |
17:21 |
|
17:06 |
16:49 |
17:08 |
|
17:20 |
17:21 |
| 379 |
Donovan Ledford |
11 |
17:23 |
18:08 |
17:03 |
17:09 |
17:19 |
|
17:19 |
17:28 |
17:37 |
17:27 |
|
|
| 396 |
Graham Hoffman |
12 |
17:25 |
18:14 |
17:17 |
|
17:08 |
|
17:31 |
17:31 |
17:31 |
17:18 |
|
|
| 413 |
Jp Mikels |
11 |
17:28 |
17:48 |
17:18 |
17:40 |
17:10 |
|
17:34 |
17:26 |
17:38 |
17:20 |
|
|
| 458 |
Dexter Hoffman |
10 |
17:32 |
17:47 |
17:33 |
18:36 |
17:23 |
|
17:18 |
17:22 |
17:50 |
18:00 |
|
|
| 533 |
Luke Stevens |
10 |
17:40 |
18:29 |
17:38 |
17:57 |
|
17:35 |
17:34 |
17:32 |
17:49 |
17:30 |
|
|
| 611 |
Owen Dilley |
12 |
17:48 |
17:05 |
18:07 |
18:41 |
|
17:38 |
17:33 |
17:52 |
17:45 |
17:42 |
|
|
| 687 |
Max Lynaugh |
9 |
17:56 |
|
17:44 |
18:13 |
|
17:55 |
17:43 |
18:00 |
17:46 |
18:15 |
|
|
| 710 |
Jace Lee |
12 |
17:58 |
18:35 |
18:09 |
17:56 |
|
17:57 |
17:51 |
17:53 |
17:56 |
17:47 |
|
|
| 857 |
Corbin Hasler |
11 |
18:10 |
|
18:41 |
18:20 |
|
18:05 |
18:02 |
18:02 |
18:04 |
18:03 |
|
|
| 983 |
Tyler O'Rourke |
10 |
18:21 |
18:24 |
18:16 |
18:10 |
|
18:09 |
18:15 |
18:32 |
18:44 |
18:21 |
|
|
| 1,034 |
Brecken Snyder |
9 |
18:25 |
|
18:30 |
17:59 |
|
18:31 |
17:56 |
18:49 |
18:35 |
18:24 |
|
|
| 1,066 |
Brayden Cring |
10 |
18:28 |
|
18:48 |
18:21 |
|
18:09 |
18:34 |
18:17 |
18:25 |
18:44 |
|
|
| 1,089 |
Taye Gutwein |
12 |
18:30 |
18:28 |
18:01 |
17:59 |
|
19:09 |
18:15 |
18:44 |
18:59 |
18:33 |
|
|
| 1,221 |
Elan Zamora |
9 |
18:41 |
|
18:37 |
18:37 |
|
18:40 |
18:52 |
18:41 |
18:42 |
18:34 |
|
|
| 1,224 |
John Obusek |
11 |
18:41 |
18:28 |
18:26 |
|
|
18:30 |
19:07 |
19:03 |
|
20:23 |
|
|
| 1,312 |
Brandon Encinia |
9 |
18:48 |
|
18:38 |
18:34 |
|
18:49 |
19:45 |
19:32 |
18:03 |
18:44 |
|
|
| 1,358 |
Conner Phillips |
10 |
18:52 |
|
18:58 |
18:38 |
|
19:02 |
19:11 |
19:09 |
18:33 |
18:32 |
|
|
| 1,419 |
Evan Hocker |
11 |
18:57 |
|
19:21 |
19:00 |
|
19:18 |
18:50 |
18:33 |
|
18:42 |
|
|
| 1,452 |
Parker Johnson |
10 |
18:59 |
19:18 |
18:36 |
18:46 |
|
19:24 |
18:48 |
|
19:48 |
18:52 |
|
|
|
Owen Sawa |
11 |
19:03 |
|
19:37 |
19:00 |
|
19:25 |
18:48 |
18:50 |
19:10 |
18:46 |
|
|
|
Noah Niccum |
9 |
19:23 |
|
19:23 |
19:15 |
|
19:49 |
19:11 |
18:26 |
20:21 |
19:26 |
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
26.9% |
11.7 |
325 |
|
|
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
2.6 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
6.3 |
181 |
0.2 |
3.1 |
3.8 |
7.4 |
12.5 |
22.6 |
30.6 |
14.7 |
4.0 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
3.8 |
102 |
0.4 |
3.1 |
13.3 |
83.2 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Bryce Pittman |
85.9% |
83.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
80.6% |
85.6% |
| Luke Moulder |
60.0% |
101.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
45.2% |
57.5% |
| Nathan McKeever |
53.7% |
107.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
36.7% |
49.8% |
| Carson Ackley |
28.2% |
143.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.7% |
8.6% |
| Caleb Haney |
27.3% |
153.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.5% |
4.1% |
| Deagan Imel |
26.9% |
192.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.2% |
| Chase Niccum |
26.9% |
194.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Bryce Pittman |
100% |
22.4 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
4.8 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Luke Moulder |
100% |
31.7 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
|
100.0% |
| Nathan McKeever |
100% |
34.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
3.2 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
|
100.0% |
| Carson Ackley |
100% |
51.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Caleb Haney |
100% |
57.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
|
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Deagan Imel |
100% |
74.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Chase Niccum |
100% |
76.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Bryce Pittman |
13.2 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
3.5 |
4.7 |
5.9 |
8.3 |
10.1 |
9.8 |
10.1 |
9.4 |
7.6 |
6.9 |
5.4 |
3.8 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
| Luke Moulder |
17.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
3.7 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
7.6 |
8.5 |
9.3 |
9.0 |
9.9 |
6.4 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
3.4 |
2.3 |
| Nathan McKeever |
18.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
3.5 |
5.5 |
7.0 |
7.8 |
8.5 |
9.7 |
7.1 |
9.2 |
6.4 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
| Carson Ackley |
25.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
3.1 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
5.9 |
8.2 |
7.6 |
9.5 |
| Caleb Haney |
27.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
3.9 |
5.8 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
| Deagan Imel |
32.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
| Chase Niccum |
32.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
|
