Carmel
Boys - Girls
2024 - 2025 - 2026
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State Rank #2
Brownsburg Regional Rank #1
North Central (Indpls) Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 78.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 99.8%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff John Cleland Early Bird (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Flashrock Invitational XC Town Twilight HSE JV Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional State Finals
Date 8/17 8/23 8/30 9/6 9/13 9/20 10/4 10/6 10/18 10/25 11/1
Team Rating 92 118 162 90 103 66 132 88 400 87 123 98
Team Adjusted Rating 72 111 90 103 66 86 88 92 87 123 98
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Valley Kickoff John Cleland Early Bird (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Flashrock Invitational XC Town Twilight HSE JV Invitational North Central (Indpls) Sectional Brownsburg Regional State Finals
5  Sadie Foley 12 17:58 18:05 18:08 18:23 17:47 18:08 17:42 18:17 17:50
8  Larkin Taylor 11 18:08 18:22 17:40 18:01 18:05 18:11 17:55 18:00 18:11 18:02 18:56 18:14
10  Annabel Pollert 11 18:10 18:07 17:32 17:47 18:26 18:01 17:47 17:45 18:04 18:25 18:29 18:39
48  Margo Halle 10 19:09 18:59 19:12 19:50 19:15 19:18 18:57 19:20 19:16 18:51 18:59 19:08
91  Kaitlyn Oshimura 12 19:44 19:30 19:27 19:53 19:28 19:47 19:45 19:35 19:32 19:51 20:03 19:42
116  Elise Maurer 10 19:53 21:14 19:53 19:50 20:03 19:52 19:43 19:52 21:06 21:57
117  Anna Yoon 11 19:54 19:42 19:42 19:48 19:49 19:27 19:43 20:06 19:59 20:11
138  Noelle Avila 12 20:03 20:26 19:44 20:14
157  Ashley Kent 9 20:08 20:00 20:03 19:57 19:59 19:49 20:13 20:27 20:49
186  Maddie Cox 12 20:18 21:22 20:04 20:02 20:10 20:49 20:04 20:05 20:52
189  Lilliana Cate 12 20:20 20:15 20:29 20:12 20:09 20:48 20:51 20:04 20:14 20:16 20:09 20:25
239  Arden Finley 12 20:28 20:46 20:01 20:13 20:08 20:31 20:33 20:33 20:23 20:26 20:49
256  Maija Gilhooly 11 20:31 20:32 20:32 20:28 20:08 20:19 20:10 20:52 20:47 20:34
262  Ellie Smith 12 20:32 20:41 21:15 20:39 20:33 20:37 20:43 20:14 20:35 20:09
334  Kalinda Lee 10 20:54 20:23 20:21 20:31 21:18 21:02
426  Izzie Shin 10 21:15 21:21 21:07 21:30 21:14 21:29 21:11 21:00 21:06
448  Katie Zhuravlev 10 21:19 21:06 22:07 21:45 21:37 21:11 21:24 21:18 20:58 20:48
485  Molly Foley 9 21:25 21:23 21:06 21:36 20:59 21:34 21:38 21:27
508  Emma Kistler 12 21:29 21:53 20:54 21:16 21:15 21:28 21:19 21:07 21:55 22:06
544  Annabelle Inman 11 21:36 22:15 21:52 22:06 21:32 21:20 21:52 21:14 21:29 21:36
561  Caroline Maurer 9 21:39 21:34 21:48 21:23 22:01 20:58 21:34 21:58
594  Angela Li 9 21:42 21:54 21:41 21:54 21:38 21:39 21:30
660  Lily Kamstra 9 21:55 21:59 22:01 22:12 21:30 22:44 21:15
664  Emma Meisner 11 21:55 21:41 21:54 21:41 21:47 21:37 22:06 21:52 21:58 22:08
769  Saraphina Frey 22:11 22:20 22:04
855  Scarlett Gackowski 9 22:23 22:25 22:07 22:25 22:21 22:13 22:18 22:39
865  Sophie Frey 10 22:25 22:05 22:38 22:06 22:03 21:56 23:13 22:37
997  Caroline Schmidt 12 22:44 21:31 22:47 22:23 22:01 22:16 23:06 23:05 23:05
1,002  Lauren Mathews 9 22:45 21:23 23:40
1,032  Jade Gackowski 9 22:50 22:54 23:29 23:44 23:19 21:29 22:20
1,074  Brittney Zhang 10 22:58 22:59 22:48 22:57 23:17 23:09 22:45 22:53 22:52
1,112  Sarina Patel 11 23:03 23:07 23:20 22:58 22:56 22:55 23:25 22:47
1,114  Abigail Schilt 9 23:03 23:38 23:27 23:30 23:10 23:20 22:51 22:31 22:36
1,119  Frannie Anderson 10 23:04 22:54 22:57 22:44 22:46 22:42 22:41 23:33 23:39
1,128  Sophia Snow 9 23:04 23:12 22:25 22:39 22:57 24:35 24:03
1,170  Eimaan Ahmad 23:10 23:07
1,172  Demi Zhang 10 23:10 23:40 24:56 23:10 23:16 23:28 23:45 23:08 22:55 22:41
1,191  Malia Larger 11 23:13 21:17 22:55 23:32 22:41 22:55 23:16 23:20 23:20 23:18
1,213  Norah Oconnell 10 23:16 22:37 23:39 23:33 23:35 22:27 23:57 22:49
1,275  Eleanor Snopek 10 23:25 22:13 23:46 23:33 23:02 23:07 23:46 23:59 22:50
1,292  Ella Cantafio 23:26 23:24
1,307  Olivia Hall 9 23:29 25:35 23:02 23:58 23:32 23:53 22:51 23:32
Maddie Meyer 10 23:39 23:35 23:45 23:33
Mia Watson 11 23:44 22:54 23:53 23:07 23:20 23:01 24:07 24:23 23:30 24:05
Reagan Ellery 9 23:47 23:52 23:37 23:33 24:04 23:55 23:36 23:48
Emma Awe 10 23:56 24:06 23:33 23:36 23:31 23:37 23:50 24:53 24:20
Ansley Lyons 10 23:57 23:16 26:07 23:39 24:01 23:56 23:35 24:29 24:25 23:31
Hanna Schaller 11 24:04 22:52 24:20 23:00 23:47 23:50 25:44 24:27 24:02 24:18
Madison Bowser 10 24:13 24:08 23:59 24:35 23:45 24:10 23:52 25:03




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 1.3 104 78.0 14.7 4.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.0 45 100.0 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 31 99.8 0.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sadie Foley 100% 4.4 6.0 11.8 13.4 13.6 12.2 9.8 7.6 5.4 4.9 3.7 2.7 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Larkin Taylor 100% 7.9 0.7 2.9 4.6 7.0 8.7 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.4 6.3 6.0 5.0 4.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 100.0%
Annabel Pollert 100% 8.6 0.6 2.4 3.8 5.4 7.2 7.6 9.2 9.4 7.7 7.4 6.3 5.6 4.5 3.8 3.0 2.5 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 100.0%
Margo Halle 100% 48.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 100.0%
Kaitlyn Oshimura 100% 94.9 94.0%
Anna Yoon 100% 113.2 82.5%
Maddie Cox 100% 163.2 28.3%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sadie Foley 100% 1.1 48.2 30.9 13.6 5.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Larkin Taylor 100% 2.4 11.6 25.3 30.6 22.3 6.2 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Annabel Pollert 100% 2.7 7.8 20.9 30.4 27.6 7.6 3.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Margo Halle 100% 13.5 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.9 4.7 6.4 7.3 8.8 10.0 11.2 10.3 9.4 7.7 5.3 4.4 2.7 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 100.0%
Kaitlyn Oshimura 100% 23.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.1 5.6 7.1 9.2 8.4 7.9 7.9 6.2 100.0%
Anna Yoon 100% 26.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.1 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.8 6.7 7.0 100.0%
Maddie Cox 100% 40.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sadie Foley 1.0 48.8 31.6 13.3 5.6 0.5 0.1
Larkin Taylor 2.4 11.0 26.2 33.4 25.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.1
Annabel Pollert 2.6 8.3 21.0 33.4 31.6 4.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
Margo Halle 8.4 0.1 4.8 9.1 12.5 15.9 17.7 16.5 11.8 6.8 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
Kaitlyn Oshimura 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 6.0 10.8 14.9 16.4 13.7 10.3 7.7 5.4 3.6 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
Anna Yoon 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 4.1 7.6 11.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 9.2 7.5 6.0 5.2 3.2 2.3 1.5 0.8
Maddie Cox 22.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.7 5.6 6.9 7.6 9.1 9.7 9.7 10.5 9.8