Pre-tourney Rankings
Conference USA
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Memphis 100.0%   5   26 - 8 13 - 3 26 - 8 13 - 3 +15.1      +8.5 18 +6.6 20 72.6 58 +11.9 29 +12.0 1
69 Southern Miss 93.0%   10   23 - 8 11 - 5 23 - 8 11 - 5 +7.0      +5.6 45 +1.4 131 64.5 253 +10.3 39 +9.2 2
76 Marshall 34.7%   20 - 13 9 - 7 20 - 13 9 - 7 +6.7      +4.5 61 +2.2 110 67.1 179 +7.7 69 +6.1 5
93 Central Florida 8.4%   20 - 10 10 - 6 20 - 10 10 - 6 +5.4      +2.7 101 +2.7 96 63.5 267 +7.8 68 +7.8 3
94 Tulsa 0.0%   17 - 14 10 - 6 17 - 14 10 - 6 +5.2      +2.2 113 +3.0 85 65.3 228 +3.8 114 +5.6 6
124 UAB 0.0%   15 - 16 9 - 7 15 - 16 9 - 7 +3.0      -0.9 197 +3.8 69 59.8 319 +3.4 125 +6.2 4
131 UTEP 0.0%   15 - 17 7 - 9 15 - 17 7 - 9 +2.5      -0.1 171 +2.5 102 59.8 318 +1.6 146 +1.0 9
138 East Carolina 0.0%   11 - 16 5 - 11 11 - 16 5 - 11 +2.3      +1.9 121 +0.4 160 67.6 165 -0.2 171 0.0 10
145 Rice 0.0%   14 - 15 8 - 8 14 - 15 8 - 8 +1.6      -1.0 202 +2.6 98 72.7 57 +1.3 150 +2.7 7
181 SMU 0.0%   11 - 19 4 - 12 11 - 19 4 - 12 -0.9      -2.4 238 +1.6 128 55.7 341 -2.0 197 -3.5 11
182 Houston 0.0%   14 - 15 7 - 9 14 - 15 7 - 9 -0.9      +2.2 110 -3.1 264 70.2 107 -0.1 170 +1.8 8
186 Tulane 0.0%   13 - 16 3 - 13 13 - 16 3 - 13 -1.3      -2.6 242 +1.3 135 65.7 216 -2.4 204 -5.4 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Memphis 1.0 100.0
Southern Miss 2.0 100.0
Marshall 5.0 100.0
Central Florida 3.0 100.0
Tulsa 3.0 100.0
UAB 5.0 100.0
UTEP 8.0 100.0
East Carolina 10.0 100.0
Rice 7.0 100.0
SMU 11.0 100.0
Houston 8.0 100.0
Tulane 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Memphis 13 - 3 100.0
Southern Miss 11 - 5 100.0
Marshall 9 - 7 100.0
Central Florida 10 - 6 100.0
Tulsa 10 - 6 100.0
UAB 9 - 7 100.0
UTEP 7 - 9 100.0
East Carolina 5 - 11 100.0
Rice 8 - 8 100.0
SMU 4 - 12 100.0
Houston 7 - 9 100.0
Tulane 3 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 100.0% 100.0
Southern Miss
Marshall
Central Florida
Tulsa
UAB
UTEP
East Carolina
Rice
SMU
Houston
Tulane


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5   0.1 3.9 18.9 48.3 23.8 4.7 0.3 0.0
Southern Miss 93.0% 0.0% 93.0% 10   0.1 0.4 6.5 31.0 40.9 13.2 0.9 0.0 7.0 93.0%
Marshall 34.7% 0.0% 34.7% 0.0 1.3 10.4 19.9 3.1 0.0 65.3 34.7%
Central Florida 8.4% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.6 0.2 91.6 8.4%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UAB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 74.9% 45.0% 20.0% 9.4% 4.1% 1.8%
Southern Miss 93.0% 0.9% 92.5% 32.3% 6.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Marshall 34.7% 24.0% 21.4% 6.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 8.4% 7.7% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.4 3.6 59.1 35.1 2.3
1st Round 100.0% 2.2 5.0 72.8 21.6 0.6
2nd Round 84.7% 1.1 15.3 56.6 26.4 1.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 49.6% 0.5 50.4 46.3 3.4 0.0
Elite Eight 21.8% 0.2 78.2 21.4 0.4
Final Four 9.9% 0.1 90.1 9.8 0.0
Final Game 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2 0.0
Champion 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8