Pre-tourney Rankings
Southeastern
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Kentucky 100.0%   1   32 - 2 16 - 0 32 - 2 16 - 0 +20.9      +11.6 5 +9.3 4 67.9 156 +24.1 1 +27.6 1
13 Vanderbilt 100.0%   5   24 - 10 10 - 6 24 - 10 10 - 6 +14.0      +8.7 16 +5.4 30 67.0 181 +12.4 23 +11.5 4
16 Florida 99.8%   6   23 - 10 10 - 6 23 - 10 10 - 6 +13.8      +11.9 3 +2.0 116 67.2 178 +12.2 26 +11.5 3
32 Alabama 98.0%   9   21 - 11 9 - 7 21 - 11 9 - 7 +10.8      +2.1 116 +8.7 11 61.7 297 +9.9 41 +8.1 5
51 Tennessee 20.2%   17 - 14 10 - 6 17 - 14 10 - 6 +8.3      +3.2 91 +5.2 36 64.3 257 +7.0 73 +12.6 2
70 Mississippi St. 36.5%   12   21 - 11 8 - 8 21 - 11 8 - 8 +6.9      +6.6 30 +0.4 162 65.7 218 +8.3 61 +7.1 7
84 Mississippi 16.2%   20 - 13 8 - 8 20 - 13 8 - 8 +5.9      +1.0 145 +5.0 40 69.1 126 +8.4 60 +7.3 6
85 LSU 0.7%   18 - 14 7 - 9 18 - 14 7 - 9 +5.8      -1.1 205 +7.0 17 67.6 166 +6.3 82 +5.6 8
105 Georgia 0.0%   15 - 17 5 - 11 15 - 17 5 - 11 +4.5      +1.3 134 +3.1 83 60.4 310 +5.2 96 +3.9 10
118 Arkansas 0.0%   18 - 14 6 - 10 18 - 14 6 - 10 +3.4      +3.0 95 +0.4 158 77.5 20 +4.9 102 +4.4 9
140 Auburn 0.0%   15 - 16 5 - 11 15 - 16 5 - 11 +2.2      -2.3 235 +4.5 54 66.1 207 +3.2 131 +2.7 11
157 South Carolina 0.0%   10 - 21 2 - 14 10 - 21 2 - 14 +0.8      +0.4 158 +0.4 161 60.7 307 -1.5 190 -2.3 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Kentucky 1.0 100.0
Vanderbilt 2.0 100.0
Florida 2.0 100.0
Alabama 5.0 100.0
Tennessee 2.0 100.0
Mississippi St. 6.0 100.0
Mississippi 6.0 100.0
LSU 8.0 100.0
Georgia 10.0 100.0
Arkansas 9.0 100.0
Auburn 10.0 100.0
South Carolina 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Kentucky 16 - 0 100.0
Vanderbilt 10 - 6 100.0
Florida 10 - 6 100.0
Alabama 9 - 7 100.0
Tennessee 10 - 6 100.0
Mississippi St. 8 - 8 100.0
Mississippi 8 - 8 100.0
LSU 7 - 9 100.0
Georgia 5 - 11 100.0
Arkansas 6 - 10 100.0
Auburn 5 - 11 100.0
South Carolina 2 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kentucky 100.0% 100.0
Vanderbilt
Florida
Alabama
Tennessee
Mississippi St.
Mississippi
LSU
Georgia
Arkansas
Auburn
South Carolina


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kentucky 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   90.1 9.9 0.0 100.0%
Vanderbilt 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5   0.0 0.3 13.3 37.9 41.8 6.6 0.1
Florida 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 6   0.2 1.4 16.4 35.1 30.3 13.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.8%
Alabama 98.0% 0.0% 98.0% 9   0.0 0.2 1.5 14.2 40.7 35.1 6.2 0.1 2.0 98.0%
Tennessee 20.2% 0.0% 20.2% 0.0 0.1 1.6 8.5 8.9 1.1 0.0 79.8 20.2%
Mississippi St. 36.5% 0.0% 36.5% 12   0.0 1.0 11.0 21.2 3.2 0.0 63.5 36.5%
Mississippi 16.2% 0.0% 16.2% 0.1 1.2 8.4 6.3 0.4 83.8 16.2%
LSU 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2 0.5 0.1 99.3 0.7%
Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arkansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Auburn 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kentucky 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.2% 81.1% 63.4% 44.2% 29.5% 18.8%
Vanderbilt 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 72.2% 41.6% 16.5% 7.7% 2.8% 1.2%
Florida 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 66.8% 31.5% 15.0% 6.3% 2.2% 0.8%
Alabama 98.0% 0.1% 97.9% 47.2% 12.7% 5.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2%
Tennessee 20.2% 10.8% 14.7% 4.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi St. 36.5% 25.2% 22.7% 6.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi 16.2% 15.2% 7.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LSU 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Auburn 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.7 0.7 40.6 46.0 12.0 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 4.4 1.1 59.4 35.0 4.4 0.1
2nd Round 99.9% 3.0 0.1 4.7 23.9 43.6 25.0 2.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 94.2% 1.7 5.8 36.0 41.3 15.2 1.6 0.0
Elite Eight 77.8% 1.0 22.2 56.8 18.9 2.0 0.1
Final Four 54.4% 0.6 45.6 48.9 5.4 0.1
Final Game 34.2% 0.4 65.8 33.3 0.9
Champion 21.0% 0.2 79.0 21.0