Pre-tourney Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#15
Expected Predictive Rating+17.6#8
Pace70.9#91
Improvement-4.9#325

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#7
Improvement-4.0#326

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#70
Improvement-1.0#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 14.8% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 73.8% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 2.1 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round83.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen51.6% n/a n/a
Elite Eight27.1% n/a n/a
Final Four11.3% n/a n/a
Championship Game4.6% n/a n/a
National Champion1.6% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2011 24   Belmont W 77-76 70%     1 - 0 +9.6 -0.9 +10.4
  Nov 12, 2011 253   Presbyterian W 96-55 97%     2 - 0 +32.2 +16.3 +15.9
  Nov 15, 2011 3   Michigan St. W 74-69 30%     3 - 0 +24.4 +7.5 +16.6
  Nov 18, 2011 74   Davidson W 82-69 84%     4 - 0 +16.3 +4.6 +11.1
  Nov 21, 2011 51   Tennessee W 77-67 70%     5 - 0 +18.3 +7.6 +10.5
  Nov 22, 2011 23   Michigan W 82-75 56%     6 - 0 +19.5 +19.7 +0.3
  Nov 23, 2011 5   Kansas W 68-61 33%     7 - 0 +25.4 +8.6 +17.2
  Nov 29, 2011 2   @ Ohio St. L 63-85 19%     7 - 1 +1.4 +3.4 -2.7
  Dec 07, 2011 72   Colorado St. W 87-64 84%     8 - 1 +26.4 +12.3 +14.3
  Dec 10, 2011 67   Washington W 86-80 74%     9 - 1 +13.2 +4.3 +8.0
  Dec 19, 2011 284   UNC Greensboro W 90-63 98%     10 - 1 +16.5 +7.5 +7.5
  Dec 30, 2011 175   Western Michigan W 110-70 94%     11 - 1 +36.1 +21.5 +10.3
  Jan 01, 2012 141   Penn W 85-55 91%     12 - 1 +28.7 +11.2 +17.4
  Jan 04, 2012 35   Temple L 73-78 63%     12 - 2 +5.6 +3.7 +1.9
  Jan 07, 2012 170   @ Georgia Tech W 81-74 84%     13 - 2 1 - 0 +10.2 +15.6 -5.1
  Jan 12, 2012 31   Virginia W 61-58 73%     14 - 2 2 - 0 +10.5 +5.4 +5.6
  Jan 15, 2012 82   @ Clemson W 73-66 67%     15 - 2 3 - 0 +16.4 +4.5 +11.8
  Jan 19, 2012 195   Wake Forest W 91-73 95%     16 - 2 4 - 0 +12.8 +12.1 +0.1
  Jan 21, 2012 22   Florida St. L 73-76 67%     16 - 3 4 - 1 +6.3 +9.2 -3.1
  Jan 25, 2012 125   @ Maryland W 74-61 77%     17 - 3 5 - 1 +19.3 +10.3 +10.3
  Jan 28, 2012 146   St. John's W 83-76 92%     18 - 3 +5.1 +6.2 -1.4
  Feb 02, 2012 80   @ Virginia Tech W 75-60 66%     19 - 3 6 - 1 +24.5 +16.9 +9.5
  Feb 05, 2012 41   Miami (FL) L 74-78 OT 77%     19 - 4 6 - 2 +2.0 -0.4 +2.6
  Feb 08, 2012 4   @ North Carolina W 85-84 22%     20 - 4 7 - 2 +23.0 +18.9 +4.1
  Feb 11, 2012 125   Maryland W 73-55 90%     21 - 4 8 - 2 +17.5 +2.8 +15.7
  Feb 16, 2012 43   North Carolina St. W 78-73 79%     22 - 4 9 - 2 +10.6 -0.1 +10.3
  Feb 19, 2012 252   @ Boston College W 75-50 92%     23 - 4 10 - 2 +23.0 +4.0 +19.3
  Feb 23, 2012 22   @ Florida St. W 74-66 42%     24 - 4 11 - 2 +24.1 +14.7 +9.7
  Feb 25, 2012 80   Virginia Tech W 70-65 OT 85%     25 - 4 12 - 2 +7.7 -0.4 +8.2
  Feb 28, 2012 195   @ Wake Forest W 79-71 87%     26 - 4 13 - 2 +9.6 +4.5 +4.9
  Mar 03, 2012 4   North Carolina L 70-88 45%     26 - 5 13 - 3 -2.8 +2.3 -4.6
  Mar 09, 2012 80   Virginia Tech W 60-56 77%     27 - 5 +10.1 +0.7 +10.1
  Mar 10, 2012 22   Florida St. L 59-62 55%     27 - 6 +9.7 +0.5 +8.8
Projected Record 27.0 - 6.0 13.0 - 3.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0%
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2.1 14.8 59.1 25.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.1 14.8 59.1 25.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%