Pre-tourney Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2013-14
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.8#8
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#15
Pace67.5#184
Improvement-2.1#270

Offense
Total Offense+13.5#2
Improvement-0.5#205

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#89
Improvement-1.7#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 6.3% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 36.9% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 99.5% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 2.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round90.7% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen61.3% n/a n/a
Elite Eight34.7% n/a n/a
Final Four17.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game8.7% n/a n/a
National Champion4.3% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 3 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2013 129   Davidson W 111-77 93%     1 - 0 +33.8 +32.6 +0.9
  Nov 12, 2013 4   Kansas L 83-94 47%     1 - 1 +6.5 +10.4 -3.0
  Nov 15, 2013 239   Florida Atlantic W 97-64 98%     2 - 1 +25.9 +16.9 +7.5
  Nov 18, 2013 244   UNC Asheville W 91-55 98%     3 - 1 +28.7 +11.0 +17.6
  Nov 19, 2013 217   East Carolina W 83-74 97%     4 - 1 +3.0 +0.7 +1.9
  Nov 24, 2013 89   Vermont W 91-90 89%     5 - 1 +4.2 +27.6 -23.3
  Nov 27, 2013 86   Alabama W 74-64 84%     6 - 1 +16.2 -1.6 +16.8
  Nov 29, 2013 2   Arizona L 66-72 37%     6 - 2 +14.1 +6.8 +7.4
  Dec 03, 2013 13   Michigan W 79-69 66%     7 - 2 +22.5 +11.1 +11.9
  Dec 16, 2013 261   Gardner-Webb W 85-66 98%     8 - 2 +10.7 +18.0 -5.5
  Dec 19, 2013 11   UCLA W 80-63 53%     9 - 2 +33.0 +9.6 +22.5
  Dec 28, 2013 126   Eastern Michigan W 82-59 93%     10 - 2 +23.0 +14.3 +8.4
  Dec 31, 2013 214   Elon W 86-48 96%     11 - 2 +35.1 +7.1 +26.3
  Jan 04, 2014 88   @ Notre Dame L 77-79 78%     11 - 3 0 - 1 +6.8 +9.4 -2.7
  Jan 07, 2014 101   Georgia Tech W 79-57 91%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +23.6 +19.0 +7.5
  Jan 11, 2014 54   @ Clemson L 59-72 67%     12 - 4 1 - 2 -0.9 +0.0 -1.9
  Jan 13, 2014 6   Virginia W 69-65 60%     13 - 4 2 - 2 +18.2 +15.7 +3.1
  Jan 18, 2014 66   North Carolina St. W 95-60 86%     14 - 4 3 - 2 +40.0 +20.5 +18.7
  Jan 22, 2014 73   @ Miami (FL) W 67-46 74%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +30.9 +12.9 +22.2
  Jan 25, 2014 43   Florida St. W 78-56 80%     16 - 4 5 - 2 +29.7 +16.0 +15.6
  Jan 27, 2014 17   @ Pittsburgh W 80-65 48%     17 - 4 6 - 2 +32.2 +25.1 +9.0
  Feb 01, 2014 21   @ Syracuse L 89-91 OT 49%     17 - 5 6 - 3 +15.0 +25.7 -10.7
  Feb 04, 2014 104   Wake Forest W 83-63 92%     18 - 5 7 - 3 +21.3 +20.3 +3.1
  Feb 08, 2014 130   @ Boston College W 89-68 86%     19 - 5 8 - 3 +26.4 +21.5 +6.9
  Feb 15, 2014 48   Maryland W 69-67 82%     20 - 5 9 - 3 +9.1 +1.4 +7.7
  Feb 18, 2014 101   @ Georgia Tech W 68-51 82%     21 - 5 10 - 3 +24.2 +11.7 +15.3
  Feb 20, 2014 28   @ North Carolina L 66-74 53%     21 - 6 10 - 4 +8.0 +3.7 +4.2
  Feb 22, 2014 21   Syracuse W 66-60 70%     22 - 6 11 - 4 +17.4 +7.7 +10.5
  Feb 25, 2014 157   Virginia Tech W 66-48 95%     23 - 6 12 - 4 +15.8 +3.7 +14.4
  Mar 05, 2014 104   @ Wake Forest L 72-82 82%     23 - 7 12 - 5 -3.2 +4.0 -7.2
  Mar 08, 2014 28   North Carolina W 93-81 73%     24 - 7 13 - 5 +22.4 +28.2 -5.5
  Mar 14, 2014 54   Clemson W 63-62 76%     25 - 7 +10.3 +11.8 -1.2
  Mar 15, 2014 66   North Carolina St. W 75-67 80%     26 - 7 +15.8 +22.5 -4.7
  Mar 16, 2014 6   Virginia L 63-72 49%     26 - 8 +8.0 +8.3 -1.2
Projected Record 26.0 - 8.0 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2.8 6.3 30.6 45.1 17.4 0.5 100.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.8 6.3 30.6 45.1 17.4 0.5 100.0%