Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Michigan St. 100.0%   2   29 - 5 13 - 5 29 - 5 13 - 5 +20.3      +12.5 2 +7.8 19 67.5 242 +19.3 3 +14.8 4
9 Purdue 100.0%   4   26 - 8 12 - 6 26 - 8 12 - 6 +17.0      +8.7 21 +8.3 14 70.4 161 +15.6 14 +14.3 6
13 Indiana 100.0%   4   25 - 7 15 - 3 25 - 7 15 - 3 +16.1      +11.5 5 +4.6 60 70.3 166 +14.8 21 +19.3 1
21 Iowa 99.9%   6   21 - 10 12 - 6 21 - 10 12 - 6 +14.9      +8.1 26 +6.8 28 72.1 124 +13.3 27 +15.4 3
22 Maryland 100.0%   4   24 - 8 12 - 6 24 - 8 12 - 6 +14.8      +7.9 29 +6.9 26 68.2 224 +15.7 13 +14.7 5
33 Wisconsin 99.3%   7   20 - 12 12 - 6 20 - 12 12 - 6 +11.9      +4.8 63 +7.1 25 61.2 341 +11.5 39 +16.0 2
42 Michigan 48.7%   11   21 - 12 10 - 8 21 - 12 10 - 8 +10.8      +8.0 27 +2.8 100 64.3 308 +12.4 31 +11.4 8
65 Northwestern 0.0%   20 - 12 8 - 10 20 - 12 8 - 10 +8.2      +4.6 68 +3.6 80 61.5 337 +8.6 70 +7.0 10
69 Ohio St. 14.4%   20 - 13 11 - 7 20 - 13 11 - 7 +8.1      +2.2 119 +5.9 38 69.6 186 +10.0 53 +13.1 7
79 Nebraska 0.0%   16 - 18 6 - 12 16 - 18 6 - 12 +7.0      +4.3 72 +2.6 107 68.0 228 +4.6 107 +3.6 11
109 Illinois 0.0%   15 - 19 5 - 13 15 - 19 5 - 13 +3.9      +2.3 112 +1.6 127 69.0 197 +4.2 112 +1.5 12
120 Penn St. 0.0%   16 - 16 7 - 11 16 - 16 7 - 11 +3.0      -0.4 182 +3.4 86 66.5 268 +5.5 98 +7.6 9
176 Minnesota 0.0%   8 - 23 2 - 16 8 - 23 2 - 16 -0.8      -2.2 221 +1.4 136 71.2 144 -2.6 203 -5.6 13
271 Rutgers 0.0%   6 - 25 1 - 17 6 - 25 1 - 17 -7.0      -5.3 307 -1.7 216 75.9 59 -7.0 272 -8.8 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan St. 2.0 100.0
Purdue 3.0 100.0
Indiana 1.0 100.0
Iowa 3.0 100.0
Maryland 3.0 100.0
Wisconsin 3.0 100.0
Michigan 8.0 100.0
Northwestern 9.0 100.0
Ohio St. 7.0 100.0
Nebraska 11.0 100.0
Illinois 12.0 100.0
Penn St. 10.0 100.0
Minnesota 13.0 100.0
Rutgers 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Michigan St. 13 - 5 100.0
Purdue 12 - 6 100.0
Indiana 15 - 3 100.0
Iowa 12 - 6 100.0
Maryland 12 - 6 100.0
Wisconsin 12 - 6 100.0
Michigan 10 - 8 100.0
Northwestern 8 - 10 100.0
Ohio St. 11 - 7 100.0
Nebraska 6 - 12 100.0
Illinois 5 - 13 100.0
Penn St. 7 - 11 100.0
Minnesota 2 - 16 100.0
Rutgers 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan St.
Purdue
Indiana 100.0% 100.0
Iowa
Maryland
Wisconsin
Michigan
Northwestern
Ohio St.
Nebraska
Illinois
Penn St.
Minnesota
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   23.5 55.6 20.6 0.3
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.2 1.6 34.7 52.7 10.2 0.7 0.0 100.0%
Indiana 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.0 0.1 7.8 41.2 35.7 14.4 0.7 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 6   0.3 5.3 21.0 52.0 21.0 0.2 0.1 99.9%
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.1 6.1 39.1 37.8 16.3 0.7 0.0 100.0%
Wisconsin 99.3% 0.0% 99.3% 7   0.0 0.1 2.2 24.3 66.7 5.8 0.1 0.7 99.3%
Michigan 48.7% 0.0% 48.7% 11   0.0 0.4 1.6 7.1 36.4 3.1 0.0 51.4 48.7%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Ohio St. 14.4% 0.0% 14.4% 0.0 0.1 1.1 11.6 1.6 0.0 85.6 14.4%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.6% 77.0% 53.3% 33.0% 19.7% 11.5%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 85.2% 54.2% 26.3% 13.2% 6.2% 2.8%
Indiana 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 80.7% 47.9% 21.1% 10.2% 4.6% 1.8%
Iowa 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 69.8% 32.8% 14.1% 6.0% 2.2% 0.9%
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 77.3% 41.2% 16.2% 7.1% 2.8% 1.1%
Wisconsin 99.3% 0.0% 99.3% 52.9% 16.7% 5.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Michigan 48.7% 37.2% 30.7% 12.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio St. 14.4% 12.8% 7.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.6 0.0 0.4 43.4 49.9 6.3
1st Round 100.0% 6.4 0.0 0.5 63.6 34.2 1.7
2nd Round 100.0% 4.8 0.1 1.5 8.9 26.7 38.8 21.8 2.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.9% 2.7 1.1 10.0 30.0 36.5 18.1 4.0 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 84.5% 1.4 15.5 42.4 31.7 9.2 1.2 0.0
Final Four 58.0% 0.7 42.0 45.4 11.7 0.9 0.0
Final Game 33.8% 0.4 66.2 31.6 2.2
Champion 18.1% 0.2 81.9 18.1