Pre-tourney Rankings
Southern
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
106 Chattanooga 100.0%   12   27 - 5 15 - 3 27 - 5 15 - 3 +4.6      +1.3 142 +3.2 90 66.5 267 +9.4 58 +6.0 1
155 East Tennessee St. 0.0%   21 - 11 14 - 4 21 - 11 14 - 4 +0.7      +2.4 110 -1.7 214 71.2 143 +3.2 121 +4.4 2
168 Furman 0.0%   16 - 15 11 - 7 16 - 15 11 - 7 -0.5      +0.3 164 -0.9 192 64.2 310 -1.9 192 -0.1 4
187 Wofford 0.0%   13 - 17 11 - 7 13 - 17 11 - 7 -1.5      +1.5 139 -2.9 255 63.7 319 -2.6 205 0.0 3
190 Mercer 0.0%   17 - 14 8 - 10 17 - 14 8 - 10 -1.8      +0.6 161 -2.4 232 61.2 340 -1.2 179 -4.3 7
194 Western Carolina 0.0%   13 - 17 10 - 8 13 - 17 10 - 8 -2.1      -2.0 215 -0.1 181 71.5 137 -1.4 184 -1.4 6
210 UNC Greensboro 0.0%   11 - 18 10 - 8 11 - 18 10 - 8 -3.2      -0.5 184 -2.6 241 67.9 233 -4.5 231 -1.0 5
224 Samford 0.0%   12 - 19 4 - 14 12 - 19 4 - 14 -3.7      -1.5 206 -2.2 228 70.1 173 -5.9 251 -10.6 9
304 VMI 0.0%   6 - 21 4 - 14 6 - 21 4 - 14 -9.3      -5.1 299 -4.3 286 70.2 169 -9.5 299 -9.7 8
323 The Citadel 0.0%   7 - 22 3 - 15 7 - 22 3 - 15 -11.4      -2.5 231 -9.0 347 105.3 1 -9.4 297 -11.4 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Chattanooga 1.0 100.0
East Tennessee St. 2.0 100.0
Furman 3.0 100.0
Wofford 3.0 100.0
Mercer 7.0 100.0
Western Carolina 5.0 100.0
UNC Greensboro 5.0 100.0
Samford 8.0 100.0
VMI 8.0 100.0
The Citadel 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Chattanooga 15 - 3 100.0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 100.0
Furman 11 - 7 100.0
Wofford 11 - 7 100.0
Mercer 8 - 10 100.0
Western Carolina 10 - 8 100.0
UNC Greensboro 10 - 8 100.0
Samford 4 - 14 100.0
VMI 4 - 14 100.0
The Citadel 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Chattanooga 100.0% 100.0
East Tennessee St.
Furman
Wofford
Mercer
Western Carolina
UNC Greensboro
Samford
VMI
The Citadel


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Chattanooga 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.3 25.9 64.2 9.6 0.1
East Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Furman 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wofford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Samford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Chattanooga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 15.7% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 100.0
2nd Round 15.7% 0.2 84.3 15.7
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0