Pre-tourney Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.4#10
Expected Predictive Rating+19.7#7
Pace68.1#166
Improvement-2.7#291

Offense
Total Offense+12.3#6
First Shot+11.7#5
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#125
Layup/Dunks+2.6#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#82
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#75
Freethrows+4.2#4
Improvement+1.5#99

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#44
First Shot+4.5#54
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#34
Layups/Dunks-4.3#320
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#2
Freethrows+2.1#59
Improvement-4.1#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 10.6% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 68.7% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 2.2 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round95.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen65.4% n/a n/a
Elite Eight35.8% n/a n/a
Final Four16.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game7.8% n/a n/a
National Champion3.2% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 308   Marist W 94-49 99%     1 - 0 +32.8 +4.0 +24.2
  Nov 12, 2016 161   Grand Canyon W 96-61 96%     2 - 0 +32.7 +16.0 +13.5
  Nov 15, 2016 6   Kansas L 75-77 46%     2 - 1 +17.4 +8.8 +8.6
  Nov 19, 2016 79   Penn St. W 78-68 87%     3 - 1 +16.3 +10.4 +5.8
  Nov 20, 2016 49   Rhode Island W 75-65 76%     4 - 1 +20.9 +14.2 +7.4
  Nov 23, 2016 142   William & Mary W 88-67 96%     5 - 1 +19.7 +10.1 +9.8
  Nov 26, 2016 272   Appalachian St. W 93-58 99%     6 - 1 +25.7 +13.8 +11.5
  Nov 29, 2016 44   Michigan St. W 78-69 82%     7 - 1 +17.8 +9.7 +8.1
  Dec 03, 2016 337   Maine W 94-55 99.6%    8 - 1 +22.0 +20.7 +3.5
  Dec 06, 2016 8   Florida W 84-74 47%     9 - 1 +29.2 +22.4 +6.8
  Dec 10, 2016 231   UNLV W 94-45 97%     10 - 1 +44.5 +20.0 +23.9
  Dec 19, 2016 183   Tennessee St. W 65-55 97%     11 - 1 +6.6 +2.1 +5.8
  Dec 21, 2016 141   Elon W 72-61 94%     12 - 1 +12.2 +3.1 +9.3
  Dec 31, 2016 36   @ Virginia Tech L 75-89 65%     12 - 2 0 - 1 +0.3 +8.1 -8.3
  Jan 04, 2017 77   Georgia Tech W 110-57 90%     13 - 2 1 - 1 +57.2 +47.8 +10.3
  Jan 07, 2017 138   Boston College W 93-82 95%     14 - 2 2 - 1 +9.8 +7.7 +0.7
  Jan 10, 2017 18   @ Florida St. L 72-88 45%     14 - 3 2 - 2 +3.7 +5.9 -1.8
  Jan 14, 2017 7   @ Louisville L 69-78 37%     14 - 4 2 - 3 +12.8 +9.1 +3.4
  Jan 21, 2017 31   Miami (FL) W 70-58 78%     15 - 4 3 - 3 +22.3 +11.2 +12.2
  Jan 23, 2017 94   North Carolina St. L 82-84 92%     15 - 5 3 - 4 +0.3 +6.9 -6.6
  Jan 28, 2017 29   @ Wake Forest W 85-83 61%     16 - 5 4 - 4 +17.4 +17.6 -0.1
  Jan 30, 2017 25   @ Notre Dame W 84-74 51%     17 - 5 5 - 4 +28.0 +20.4 +7.8
  Feb 04, 2017 73   Pittsburgh W 72-64 89%     18 - 5 6 - 4 +13.1 +15.2 -0.3
  Feb 09, 2017 3   North Carolina W 86-78 51%     19 - 5 7 - 4 +26.1 +26.0 +0.6
  Feb 11, 2017 39   Clemson W 64-62 81%     20 - 5 8 - 4 +11.0 +3.8 +7.5
  Feb 15, 2017 11   @ Virginia W 65-55 42%     21 - 5 9 - 4 +30.4 +20.9 +11.7
  Feb 18, 2017 29   Wake Forest W 99-94 78%     22 - 5 10 - 4 +15.4 +30.6 -15.0
  Feb 22, 2017 46   @ Syracuse L 75-78 68%     22 - 6 10 - 5 +10.6 +13.8 -3.5
  Feb 25, 2017 31   @ Miami (FL) L 50-55 61%     22 - 7 10 - 6 +10.4 -7.9 +17.9
  Feb 28, 2017 18   Florida St. W 75-70 64%     23 - 7 11 - 6 +19.6 +12.5 +7.4
  Mar 04, 2017 3   @ North Carolina L 83-90 32%     23 - 8 11 - 7 +16.1 +19.1 -2.9
  Mar 08, 2017 39   Clemson W 79-72 74%     24 - 8 +18.5 +9.4 +9.1
  Mar 09, 2017 7   Louisville W 81-77 46%     25 - 8 +23.3 +19.7 +3.7
  Mar 10, 2017 3   North Carolina W 93-83 41%     26 - 8 +30.6 +23.1 +6.9
  Mar 11, 2017 25   Notre Dame W 75-69 61%     27 - 8 +21.5 +15.3 +6.7
Projected Record 27.0 - 8.0 11.0 - 7.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2.2 10.6 58.1 29.9 1.4
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2.2 10.6 58.1 29.9 1.4