Pre-tourney Rankings
Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.3#7
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#10
Pace66.7#210
Improvement+1.8#89

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#15
First Shot+5.4#43
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#3
Layup/Dunks+3.0#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
Freethrows+1.7#62
Improvement+2.1#59

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#9
First Shot+7.9#11
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#30
Layups/Dunks+3.5#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#32
Freethrows-0.5#198
Improvement-0.3#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 11.8% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 50.8% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 99.4% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 2.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round95.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen66.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight38.3% n/a n/a
Final Four19.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game9.6% n/a n/a
National Champion4.4% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 154   Evansville W 78-47 96%     1 - 0 +29.0 +11.7 +20.2
  Nov 14, 2016 142   William & Mary W 91-58 96%     2 - 0 +31.7 +7.4 +22.5
  Nov 17, 2016 226   Long Beach St. W 88-56 98%     3 - 0 +25.4 +6.7 +17.4
  Nov 23, 2016 131   Old Dominion W 68-62 OT 94%     4 - 0 +7.7 -4.6 +11.9
  Nov 24, 2016 9   Wichita St. W 62-52 53%     5 - 0 +28.6 +4.4 +25.2
  Nov 25, 2016 15   Baylor L 63-66 56%     5 - 1 +14.6 +10.2 +3.9
  Nov 30, 2016 16   Purdue W 71-64 66%     6 - 1 +22.1 +8.3 +13.9
  Dec 03, 2016 161   @ Grand Canyon W 79-70 93%     7 - 1 +11.7 +14.2 -2.0
  Dec 07, 2016 144   Southern Illinois W 74-51 96%     8 - 1 +21.6 +3.2 +19.2
  Dec 10, 2016 220   Texas Southern W 102-71 98%     9 - 1 +24.7 +24.4 -0.1
  Dec 17, 2016 273   Eastern Kentucky W 87-56 99%     10 - 1 +21.7 +8.1 +12.7
  Dec 21, 2016 4   Kentucky W 73-70 57%     11 - 1 +20.4 +9.0 +11.5
  Dec 28, 2016 11   Virginia L 53-61 65%     11 - 2 0 - 1 +7.4 +3.1 +2.5
  Dec 31, 2016 38   Indiana W 77-62 77%     12 - 2 +26.6 +13.0 +14.8
  Jan 04, 2017 25   @ Notre Dame L 70-77 55%     12 - 3 0 - 2 +11.0 +4.7 +6.2
  Jan 07, 2017 77   @ Georgia Tech W 65-50 83%     13 - 3 1 - 2 +24.3 +12.7 +13.7
  Jan 11, 2017 73   Pittsburgh W 85-80 90%     14 - 3 2 - 2 +10.1 +7.6 +2.2
  Jan 14, 2017 10   Duke W 78-69 63%     15 - 3 3 - 2 +24.8 +12.5 +12.6
  Jan 19, 2017 39   Clemson W 92-60 83%     16 - 3 4 - 2 +41.0 +27.8 +15.2
  Jan 21, 2017 18   @ Florida St. L 68-73 48%     16 - 4 4 - 3 +14.7 +3.8 +10.9
  Jan 24, 2017 73   @ Pittsburgh W 106-51 80%     17 - 4 5 - 3 +65.2 +36.7 +28.8
  Jan 29, 2017 94   North Carolina St. W 85-60 93%     18 - 4 6 - 3 +27.3 +14.6 +14.1
  Feb 04, 2017 138   @ Boston College W 90-67 92%     19 - 4 7 - 3 +26.9 +18.2 +8.4
  Feb 06, 2017 11   @ Virginia L 55-71 45%     19 - 5 7 - 4 +4.4 +5.4 -3.5
  Feb 11, 2017 31   Miami (FL) W 71-66 80%     20 - 5 8 - 4 +15.3 +17.9 -1.8
  Feb 13, 2017 46   @ Syracuse W 76-72 OT 71%     21 - 5 9 - 4 +17.6 +4.1 +13.4
  Feb 18, 2017 36   Virginia Tech W 94-90 83%     22 - 5 10 - 4 +13.2 +36.5 -22.7
  Feb 22, 2017 3   @ North Carolina L 63-74 35%     22 - 6 10 - 5 +12.1 -0.8 +13.0
  Feb 26, 2017 46   Syracuse W 88-68 84%     23 - 6 11 - 5 +28.6 +18.4 +10.6
  Mar 01, 2017 29   @ Wake Forest L 81-88 64%     23 - 7 11 - 6 +8.4 +11.1 -2.7
  Mar 04, 2017 25   Notre Dame W 71-64 73%     24 - 7 12 - 6 +19.9 +11.0 +9.7
  Mar 09, 2017 10   Duke L 77-81 54%     24 - 8 +14.4 +12.2 +2.1
Projected Record 24.0 - 8.0 12.0 - 6.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2.5 11.8 39.0 38.0 10.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 11.8 39.0 38.0 10.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%