Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#11
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#22
Pace52.8#351
Improvement+0.1#167

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#56
First Shot+3.6#73
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#77
Layup/Dunks+1.0#134
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#153
Freethrows-1.4#264
Improvement-0.4#199

Defense
Total Defense+12.9#1
First Shot+9.6#5
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#1
Layups/Dunks+5.0#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#127
Freethrows+1.8#71
Improvement+0.4#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.6% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 47.4% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 99.6% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 4.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round84.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen48.8% n/a n/a
Elite Eight22.1% n/a n/a
Final Four10.9% n/a n/a
Championship Game4.8% n/a n/a
National Champion2.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 5 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2016 120   @ UNC Greensboro W 76-51 88%     1 - 0 +30.1 +23.3 +13.0
  Nov 15, 2016 346   St. Francis Brooklyn W 72-32 99.7%    2 - 0 +20.2 +1.6 +23.8
  Nov 20, 2016 157   Yale W 62-38 96%     3 - 0 +22.0 +2.0 +25.3
  Nov 22, 2016 331   Grambling St. W 90-34 99%     4 - 0 +41.1 +12.5 +30.5
  Nov 25, 2016 65   Iowa W 74-41 81%     5 - 0 +41.4 +18.1 +29.8
  Nov 26, 2016 50   Providence W 63-52 76%     6 - 0 +21.4 +20.3 +5.1
  Nov 30, 2016 71   Ohio St. W 63-61 88%     7 - 0 +7.3 -1.2 +8.7
  Dec 03, 2016 5   West Virginia L 57-66 53%     7 - 1 +8.2 +3.8 +2.7
  Dec 06, 2016 159   East Carolina W 76-53 96%     8 - 1 +20.9 +26.0 +0.7
  Dec 17, 2016 275   Robert Morris W 79-39 99%     9 - 1 +30.6 +18.7 +18.0
  Dec 21, 2016 57   @ California W 56-52 72%     10 - 1 +16.0 +1.1 +15.4
  Dec 28, 2016 7   @ Louisville W 61-53 35%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +29.8 +11.9 +19.6
  Dec 31, 2016 18   Florida St. L 58-60 63%     11 - 2 1 - 1 +12.6 +3.4 +8.8
  Jan 04, 2017 73   @ Pittsburgh L 76-88 OT 77%     11 - 3 1 - 2 -1.8 +8.8 -11.1
  Jan 08, 2017 29   Wake Forest W 79-62 76%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +27.4 +13.8 +15.2
  Jan 14, 2017 39   @ Clemson W 77-73 64%     13 - 3 3 - 2 +18.1 +17.0 +1.5
  Jan 18, 2017 138   @ Boston College W 71-54 90%     14 - 3 4 - 2 +20.9 +9.0 +14.0
  Jan 21, 2017 77   Georgia Tech W 62-49 89%     15 - 3 5 - 2 +17.2 +11.2 +8.8
  Jan 24, 2017 25   @ Notre Dame W 71-54 50%     16 - 3 6 - 2 +35.0 +14.1 +22.9
  Jan 29, 2017 2   Villanova L 59-61 34%     16 - 4 +20.1 +12.9 +6.7
  Feb 01, 2017 36   Virginia Tech W 71-48 79%     17 - 4 7 - 2 +32.2 +10.6 +25.5
  Feb 04, 2017 46   @ Syracuse L 62-66 66%     17 - 5 7 - 3 +9.6 +4.9 +3.9
  Feb 06, 2017 7   Louisville W 71-55 55%     18 - 5 8 - 3 +32.7 +18.0 +17.4
  Feb 12, 2017 36   @ Virginia Tech L 78-80 2OT 64%     18 - 6 8 - 4 +12.3 +1.0 +11.5
  Feb 15, 2017 10   Duke L 55-65 58%     18 - 7 8 - 5 +5.8 -0.7 +4.3
  Feb 18, 2017 3   @ North Carolina L 41-65 31%     18 - 8 8 - 6 -0.9 -16.8 +12.7
  Feb 20, 2017 31   Miami (FL) L 48-54 OT 76%     18 - 9 8 - 7 +4.3 -7.5 +10.6
  Feb 25, 2017 94   @ North Carolina St. W 70-55 84%     19 - 9 9 - 7 +22.4 +6.7 +17.6
  Feb 27, 2017 3   North Carolina W 53-43 49%     20 - 9 10 - 7 +28.1 -0.7 +31.1
  Mar 04, 2017 73   Pittsburgh W 67-42 88%     21 - 9 11 - 7 +30.1 +5.2 +28.9
  Mar 08, 2017 73   Pittsburgh W 75-63 83%     22 - 9 +19.7 +18.7 +3.3
  Mar 09, 2017 25   Notre Dame L 58-71 59%     22 - 10 +2.5 +4.6 -5.1
Projected Record 22.0 - 10.0 11.0 - 7.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 4.5 0.1 0.6 11.5 35.3 41.5 10.8 0.4 100.0%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4.5 0.1 0.6 11.5 35.3 41.5 10.8 0.4 100.0%