Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-12
2017-18


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
20 Arizona 100.0%   5   27 - 7 14 - 4 27 - 7 14 - 4 +14.0      +7.0 20 +7.0 20 67.3 221 +14.0 20 +13.4 1
36 USC 74.2%   11   23 - 11 12 - 6 23 - 11 12 - 6 +11.3      +5.7 36 +5.7 36 68.2 204 +10.1 54 +10.7 2
44 UCLA 70.6%   11   21 - 11 11 - 7 21 - 11 11 - 7 +10.5      +5.2 44 +5.2 44 74.1 60 +10.6 50 +9.3 5
48 Arizona St. 23.8%   20 - 11 8 - 10 20 - 11 8 - 10 +9.9      +4.9 48 +4.9 48 76.9 31 +9.1 60 +5.0 9
62 Utah 14.2%   19 - 11 11 - 7 19 - 11 11 - 7 +8.5      +4.3 62 +4.3 62 65.2 275 +9.0 61 +10.2 3
65 Oregon 7.0%   22 - 12 10 - 8 22 - 12 10 - 8 +8.2      +4.1 65 +4.1 65 67.3 225 +8.2 65 +8.5 6
78 Stanford 0.1%   18 - 15 11 - 7 18 - 15 11 - 7 +6.9      +3.5 78 +3.5 78 73.6 65 +6.5 83 +9.8 4
90 Oregon St. 0.0%   16 - 16 7 - 11 16 - 16 7 - 11 +5.7      +2.9 90 +2.9 90 64.4 298 +3.2 121 +4.5 10
96 Washington 4.9%   20 - 12 10 - 8 20 - 12 10 - 8 +5.1      +2.5 96 +2.5 96 71.7 106 +7.9 67 +7.4 7
107 Colorado 0.0%   17 - 15 8 - 10 17 - 15 8 - 10 +4.5      +2.2 107 +2.2 107 68.9 183 +6.3 86 +6.3 8
181 Washington St. 0.0%   12 - 19 4 - 14 12 - 19 4 - 14 -1.0      -0.5 181 -0.5 181 69.5 168 +0.8 158 -1.3 11
233 California 0.0%   8 - 23 2 - 16 8 - 23 2 - 16 -4.1      -2.1 233 -2.1 233 70.4 141 -3.2 217 -4.8 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 1.0 100.0
USC 2.0 100.0
UCLA 3.0 100.0
Arizona St. 8.0 100.0
Utah 3.0 100.0
Oregon 6.0 100.0
Stanford 3.0 100.0
Oregon St. 10.0 100.0
Washington 6.0 100.0
Colorado 8.0 100.0
Washington St. 11.0 100.0
California 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arizona 14 - 4 100.0
USC 12 - 6 100.0
UCLA 11 - 7 100.0
Arizona St. 8 - 10 100.0
Utah 11 - 7 100.0
Oregon 10 - 8 100.0
Stanford 11 - 7 100.0
Oregon St. 7 - 11 100.0
Washington 10 - 8 100.0
Colorado 8 - 10 100.0
Washington St. 4 - 14 100.0
California 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 100.0% 100.0
USC
UCLA
Arizona St.
Utah
Oregon
Stanford
Oregon St.
Washington
Colorado
Washington St.
California


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5   0.1 7.2 23.5 45.7 22.5 1.0 0.0
USC 74.2% 0.0% 74.2% 11   0.0 0.6 6.3 15.4 34.7 17.2 25.8 74.2%
UCLA 70.6% 0.0% 70.6% 11   0.1 1.6 6.2 27.6 34.9 0.2 29.4 70.6%
Arizona St. 23.8% 0.0% 23.8% 0.0 1.3 20.9 1.6 76.2 23.8%
Utah 14.2% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0 0.9 11.9 1.4 85.8 14.2%
Oregon 7.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.1 5.7 1.2 93.0 7.0%
Stanford 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington 4.9% 0.0% 4.9% 0.1 4.0 0.8 95.1 4.9%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 72.4% 37.6% 14.5% 6.0% 2.2% 0.8%
USC 74.2% 16.1% 66.9% 32.3% 9.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
UCLA 70.6% 33.7% 54.1% 23.6% 6.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Arizona St. 23.8% 22.3% 12.6% 4.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah 14.2% 13.3% 7.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 7.0% 6.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 4.9% 4.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.9 3.2 25.3 47.8 21.0 2.5 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.5 9.9 42.8 39.9 7.1 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 87.2% 1.4 12.8 46.0 32.9 7.8 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 48.3% 0.6 51.7 41.5 6.6 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 19.8% 0.2 80.2 18.8 1.0 0.0
Final Four 7.6% 0.1 92.4 7.5 0.1
Final Game 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.6 0.0
Champion 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8