Horizon
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
105 Northern Kentucky 46.2%   15   18 - 7 10 - 4 21 - 8 13 - 5 +4.5      +3.9 67 +0.6 155 69.3 170 +4.0 119 +2.7 2
142 Wright St. 25.7%   14 - 11 10 - 4 17 - 12 13 - 5 +1.7      +1.2 141 +0.5 158 65.3 284 +1.1 156 +3.2 1
197 Illinois-Chicago 8.5%   12 - 12 8 - 5 15 - 14 11 - 7 -2.1      -1.9 233 -0.2 179 74.2 61 -0.7 177 +0.3 3
201 IUPUI 6.2%   12 - 12 6 - 7 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2.4      -2.1 240 -0.3 182 73.3 77 -2.9 202 -4.2 7
224 Oakland 4.3%   10 - 16 7 - 7 12 - 18 9 - 9 -3.8      +1.0 144 -4.8 303 68.9 182 -4.6 232 -2.7 5
227 Green Bay 4.8%   12 - 13 8 - 6 13 - 16 9 - 9 -4.0      -0.6 196 -3.3 259 83.8 8 -1.8 194 -2.7 4
259 Detroit Mercy 1.9%   10 - 17 7 - 8 11 - 19 8 - 10 -5.7      -0.7 199 -5.1 309 71.0 124 -4.8 235 -4.2 8
284 Youngstown St. 1.5%   9 - 16 7 - 7 10 - 19 8 - 10 -6.9      -1.1 213 -5.8 327 68.5 192 -5.8 252 -3.7 6
296 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.6%   8 - 17 4 - 9 9 - 21 5 - 13 -7.7      -3.5 275 -4.2 283 66.0 263 -8.7 292 -9.8 9
309 Cleveland St. 0.3%   5 - 20 2 - 12 6 - 23 3 - 15 -8.7      -3.8 280 -4.9 305 71.8 105 -12.9 329 -16.3 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Kentucky 1.2 76.9 21.9 1.2 0.0
Wright St. 1.4 59.4 37.8 2.7 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 3.1 3.5 12.9 64.6 11.6 4.8 1.7 0.7 0.3
IUPUI 5.2 0.0 0.4 11.8 29.6 20.9 15.4 11.4 9.8 0.8
Oakland 4.7 0.0 0.5 19.1 32.1 22.5 12.5 8.0 5.1 0.1
Green Bay 4.6 0.3 1.7 17.0 30.2 26.4 15.3 7.7 1.4 0.0
Detroit Mercy 6.1 0.0 3.6 11.7 19.2 20.5 22.1 22.4 0.4
Youngstown St. 6.1 0.0 0.1 2.6 9.7 19.7 25.2 27.9 14.6 0.2
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 5.0 91.5 0.7
Cleveland St. 9.9 0.0 5.2 94.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Kentucky 13 - 5 0.0 1.4 10.8 38.7 49.1
Wright St. 13 - 5 0.2 3.4 18.7 42.6 35.1
Illinois-Chicago 11 - 7 1.1 8.0 23.2 33.6 25.5 8.7
IUPUI 9 - 9 1.1 7.9 22.3 33.8 26.2 8.6
Oakland 9 - 9 3.7 17.6 33.8 32.4 12.5
Green Bay 9 - 9 20.2 37.6 29.3 11.1 1.8
Detroit Mercy 8 - 10 19.1 41.1 31.6 8.2
Youngstown St. 8 - 10 15.4 43.9 33.0 7.2 0.5
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5 - 13 21.2 38.1 27.5 10.7 2.2 0.2
Cleveland St. 3 - 15 36.6 43.3 17.3 2.7 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Kentucky 76.9% 39.5 35.3 2.1 0.0 0.0
Wright St. 59.4% 22.3 35.0 2.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 3.5% 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 0.0% 0.0
Oakland 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy
Youngstown St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Cleveland St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Kentucky 46.2% 46.2% 0.0% 15   0.1 2.2 14.5 21.1 8.1 0.2 53.8 0.0%
Wright St. 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 0.1 2.5 10.0 12.0 1.3 74.3 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 4.6 3.1 91.5 0.0%
IUPUI 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.2 93.8 0.0%
Oakland 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 3.4 95.7 0.0%
Green Bay 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.1 2.6 95.2 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.8 98.1 0.0%
Youngstown St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.5 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Northern Kentucky 46.2% 0.0% 46.2% 5.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 25.7% 0.0% 25.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 8.5% 0.5% 8.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 6.2% 0.9% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 4.3% 1.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 4.8% 0.6% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.9% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 1.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.5% 1.0 3.5 96.5
2nd Round 7.6% 0.1 92.4 7.6
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0