Horizon
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
123 Northern Kentucky 32.9%   15   6 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +3.2      +1.4 134 +1.8 116 70.3 170 +4.2 126 0.0 1
144 Wright St. 22.9%   3 - 6 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 6 +1.5      +2.1 113 -0.6 179 67.0 252 -3.6 214 0.0 1
168 Illinois-Chicago 14.5%   3 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 7 -0.5      +1.1 142 -1.6 221 76.6 48 -1.3 189 0.0 1
181 IUPUI 11.5%   5 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 -1.4      -2.8 248 +1.4 129 74.2 92 +3.9 133 0.0 1
203 Green Bay 8.0%   4 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -2.6      -1.2 214 -1.4 213 83.3 11 +1.9 152 0.0 1
235 Oakland 4.3%   3 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -4.5      +2.4 108 -7.0 342 67.0 253 -5.9 243 0.0 1
255 Cleveland St. 3.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -5.3      -3.0 254 -2.4 243 73.1 110 -10.1 291 0.0 1
295 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1.4%   2 - 8 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 11 -7.4      -4.7 301 -2.7 252 65.9 281 -11.9 307 0.0 1
302 Detroit Mercy 1.2%   3 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 12 -7.8      -1.1 207 -6.7 338 73.4 107 -3.6 213 0.0 1
332 Youngstown St. 0.2%   1 - 8 0 - 0 5 - 24 4 - 14 -11.8      -4.1 287 -7.7 347 74.7 82 -15.8 331 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Kentucky 2.1 47.7 23.3 13.0 7.6 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Wright St. 2.7 30.5 24.5 17.2 11.5 7.4 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 3.6 16.9 19.1 18.6 15.3 11.6 8.4 5.2 3.1 1.4 0.4
IUPUI 4.0 12.7 15.8 17.1 15.9 13.3 10.2 7.3 4.5 2.4 0.8
Green Bay 4.6 8.1 11.6 14.4 15.9 14.9 12.8 10.0 6.8 4.0 1.5
Oakland 5.6 3.5 6.4 9.7 12.5 14.7 15.7 14.5 11.7 7.9 3.4
Cleveland St. 6.1 2.4 4.9 7.8 10.8 13.5 15.2 15.9 14.0 10.5 5.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 7.1 0.7 2.0 3.8 6.3 9.3 12.8 16.3 19.2 18.6 11.1
Detroit Mercy 7.3 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.5 8.5 12.1 15.9 19.3 20.4 12.8
Youngstown St. 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 7.6 13.4 23.7 46.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Kentucky 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.0 9.5 13.0 15.8 16.7 15.1 10.5 5.3 1.4
Wright St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.5 9.7 13.0 15.0 15.6 13.8 10.0 6.0 2.4 0.5
Illinois-Chicago 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.8 7.7 10.5 13.2 14.6 14.5 12.2 8.8 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.2
IUPUI 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.6 9.5 12.0 14.0 14.2 12.8 10.3 6.8 3.9 1.7 0.5 0.1
Green Bay 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.5 6.2 9.1 11.8 13.7 14.3 12.9 10.4 7.3 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Oakland 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.9 7.0 10.2 12.9 14.5 14.0 12.2 9.5 6.2 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.6 8.8 12.1 13.9 14.3 13.1 10.7 7.7 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 3.1 6.6 10.5 13.7 15.1 14.8 12.4 9.4 6.4 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 6 - 12 0.2 1.3 3.8 7.5 11.3 14.5 15.3 14.3 11.8 8.7 5.5 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 4 - 14 2.8 8.5 14.5 17.7 17.4 14.5 10.4 6.6 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Kentucky 47.7% 35.1 10.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wright St. 30.5% 20.2 8.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 16.9% 10.1 5.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 12.7% 7.3 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 8.1% 4.4 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oakland 3.5% 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 2.4% 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Kentucky 32.9% 32.9% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.6 10.9 9.7 2.8 67.1 0.1%
Wright St. 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.2 9.6 6.3 77.1 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 6.0 5.1 85.5 0.0%
IUPUI 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.7 3.2 88.5 0.0%
Green Bay 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.3 2.5 92.0 0.0%
Oakland 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 95.7 0.0%
Cleveland St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 96.8 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 98.6 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 98.8 0.0%
Youngstown St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Northern Kentucky 32.9% 0.8% 32.6% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 22.9% 2.2% 22.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 14.5% 2.1% 13.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 11.5% 1.3% 10.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 8.0% 1.0% 7.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 4.3% 2.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 3.2% 2.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 94.0% 0.9 6.0 94.0 0.0
2nd Round 7.6% 0.1 92.4 7.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0