Oakland
Horizon
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#224
Achievement Rating-4.6#232
Pace68.9#182
Improvement+0.4#175

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#144
First Shot+2.0#124
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#238
Layup/Dunks-3.5#294
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#18
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement-7.4#352

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#303
First Shot-3.7#287
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#280
Layups/Dunks-4.3#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#102
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement+7.7#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0.8% 1.6% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 78.7% 93.5% 61.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.5% 2.2%
First Round3.5% 4.3% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 53.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 67   Toledo L 86-87 22%     0 - 1 +3.4 +19.3 -16.0
  Nov 13, 2018 274   Western Michigan L 77-85 70%     0 - 2 -17.1 -10.4 -5.7
  Nov 16, 2018 150   @ UNLV L 61-74 24%     0 - 3 -9.3 -8.6 -1.6
  Nov 23, 2018 262   James Madison W 77-69 68%     1 - 3 -0.5 +8.6 -8.1
  Nov 24, 2018 271   Oral Roberts W 87-76 69%     2 - 3 +2.0 +12.3 -9.7
  Nov 25, 2018 147   Northern Illinois L 72-92 40%     2 - 4 -21.1 +6.8 -30.6
  Dec 01, 2018 82   @ Xavier L 63-73 12%     2 - 5 -1.1 +0.3 -2.6
  Dec 06, 2018 286   @ Fairfield W 87-86 52%     3 - 5 -3.3 +10.8 -14.1
  Dec 08, 2018 94   @ Northeastern L 83-92 14%     3 - 6 -1.1 +9.5 -10.3
  Dec 16, 2018 189   @ Hartford L 82-87 33%     3 - 7 -4.1 +15.4 -20.1
  Dec 18, 2018 111   @ Georgia L 69-81 16%     3 - 8 -5.2 -6.1 +1.7
  Dec 21, 2018 4   @ Michigan St. L 69-99 2%     3 - 9 -7.3 +6.0 -13.0
  Dec 28, 2018 309   @ Cleveland St. W 89-77 59%     4 - 9 1 - 0 +6.0 +7.8 -2.4
  Dec 30, 2018 284   @ Youngstown St. W 76-74 51%     5 - 9 2 - 0 -2.2 +1.0 -3.1
  Jan 03, 2019 105   Northern Kentucky W 76-74 29%     6 - 9 3 - 0 +3.8 +5.8 -1.9
  Jan 05, 2019 142   Wright St. L 73-89 39%     6 - 10 3 - 1 -17.0 -2.0 -14.7
  Jan 10, 2019 296   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64-67 74%     6 - 11 3 - 2 -13.4 -6.0 -7.9
  Jan 12, 2019 227   Green Bay W 90-78 61%     7 - 11 4 - 2 +5.3 +8.5 -3.7
  Jan 19, 2019 259   @ Detroit Mercy W 79-73 47%     8 - 11 5 - 2 +3.0 +0.0 +2.8
  Jan 24, 2019 201   @ IUPUI L 71-73 35%     8 - 12 5 - 3 -1.7 -5.2 +3.6
  Jan 26, 2019 197   @ Illinois-Chicago W 80-67 33%     9 - 12 6 - 3 +13.6 +5.6 +7.6
  Jan 31, 2019 284   Youngstown St. L 74-75 71%     9 - 13 6 - 4 -10.6 -3.6 -7.0
  Feb 02, 2019 309   Cleveland St. W 83-68 77%     10 - 13 7 - 4 +3.6 +10.8 -6.0
  Feb 07, 2019 142   @ Wright St. L 62-76 22%     10 - 14 7 - 5 -9.6 -11.0 +1.9
  Feb 09, 2019 105   @ Northern Kentucky L 64-79 15%     10 - 15 7 - 6 -7.8 -7.2 -0.5
  Feb 14, 2019 227   @ Green Bay L 54-66 40%     10 - 16 7 - 7 -13.2 -25.9 +13.8
  Feb 16, 2019 296   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 23, 2019 259   Detroit Mercy W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 28, 2019 197   Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 55%    
  Mar 02, 2019 201   IUPUI W 76-75 56%    
Projected Record 12.3 - 17.7 9.3 - 8.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 9.0 9.9 19.1 3rd
4th 0.0 9.5 20.5 2.1 32.1 4th
5th 1.7 17.9 2.9 22.5 5th
6th 0.0 6.8 5.7 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.6 7.1 0.4 8.0 7th
8th 3.0 2.1 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 3.7 17.6 33.8 32.4 12.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 12.5% 6.7% 6.7% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 11.7
10-8 32.4% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.3 1.6 30.5
9-9 33.8% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 1.1 32.6
8-10 17.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 17.3
7-11 3.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.7
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.9 3.4 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 15.3 3.2 63.1 33.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.7%
Lose Out 1.5%