IUPUI
Horizon
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#205
Achievement Rating-3.8#214
Pace72.7#83
Improvement-1.9#268

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#218
First Shot-2.1#243
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#124
Layup/Dunks+2.0#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#282
Freethrows+1.0#108
Improvement+1.6#102

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#200
First Shot-1.7#224
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#135
Layups/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#148
Freethrows-1.5#271
Improvement-3.5#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 5.5% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 53.0% 61.5% 20.7%
.500 or above in Conference 45.4% 54.1% 12.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 1.7%
First Round4.6% 5.1% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Home) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 82   @ Xavier L 69-82 14%     0 - 1 -4.2 -5.5 +2.1
  Nov 10, 2018 296   Eastern Illinois W 71-65 77%     1 - 1 -4.5 -12.5 +7.7
  Nov 14, 2018 97   @ Boston College W 76-69 16%     2 - 1 +14.8 +8.1 +6.9
  Nov 16, 2018 179   @ Richmond L 70-78 34%     2 - 2 -6.4 -4.6 -1.8
  Nov 23, 2018 262   St. Francis Brooklyn W 68-48 62%     3 - 2 +14.1 -8.0 +21.4
  Nov 24, 2018 284   Grambling St. W 80-69 66%     4 - 2 +4.1 +6.2 -2.3
  Nov 28, 2018 156   Bradley W 85-73 49%     5 - 2 +9.7 +11.0 -1.7
  Dec 01, 2018 120   Ball St. L 75-85 36%     5 - 3 -9.1 -5.4 -2.5
  Dec 15, 2018 285   Western Illinois W 82-68 75%     6 - 3 +4.2 +7.5 -2.8
  Dec 18, 2018 181   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-87 34%     6 - 4 -8.5 -3.4 -4.5
  Dec 21, 2018 268   @ Morehead St. L 70-74 52%     6 - 5 -7.3 -7.9 +0.7
  Dec 28, 2018 106   @ Northern Kentucky L 77-92 18%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -7.7 +2.5 -9.5
  Dec 30, 2018 141   @ Wright St. L 64-72 25%     6 - 7 0 - 2 -3.5 -2.1 -2.0
  Jan 04, 2019 196   @ Illinois-Chicago W 66-64 37%     7 - 7 1 - 2 +2.7 -4.3 +7.0
  Jan 10, 2019 306   Cleveland St. W 90-74 79%     8 - 7 2 - 2 +4.8 +3.7 -0.1
  Jan 12, 2019 283   Youngstown St. L 76-82 75%     8 - 8 2 - 3 -15.6 -6.0 -9.4
  Jan 17, 2019 224   @ Green Bay W 76-70 44%     9 - 8 3 - 3 +4.9 -8.4 +12.5
  Jan 19, 2019 304   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 57-64 61%     9 - 9 3 - 4 -12.5 -13.7 +0.6
  Jan 24, 2019 216   Oakland W 73-71 63%     10 - 9 4 - 4 -4.0 -10.3 +6.2
  Jan 26, 2019 260   Detroit Mercy W 80-65 71%     11 - 9 5 - 4 +6.6 +0.3 +6.2
  Feb 01, 2019 106   Northern Kentucky W 83-77 33%     12 - 9 6 - 4 +7.7 +12.0 -4.1
  Feb 03, 2019 141   Wright St. L 74-79 43%     12 - 10 6 - 5 -6.0 -2.0 -3.8
  Feb 09, 2019 196   Illinois-Chicago L 75-76 58%     12 - 11 6 - 6 -5.9 -1.0 -4.9
  Feb 14, 2019 283   @ Youngstown St. L 73-75 55%     12 - 12 6 - 7 -6.0 -2.4 -3.7
  Feb 16, 2019 306   @ Cleveland St. L 86-89 61%     12 - 13 6 - 8 -8.7 +12.5 -21.3
  Feb 22, 2019 304   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-68 79%    
  Feb 24, 2019 224   Green Bay W 84-80 65%    
  Feb 28, 2019 260   @ Detroit Mercy W 77-76 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 216   @ Oakland L 75-77 41%    
Projected Record 14.4 - 14.6 8.4 - 9.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.3 3.4 3rd
4th 7.7 8.3 16.0 4th
5th 1.9 18.8 0.3 21.0 5th
6th 0.1 13.6 6.6 20.4 6th
7th 3.1 15.4 0.3 18.8 7th
8th 2.3 13.0 4.6 20.0 8th
9th 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.7 16.3 35.6 33.5 11.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 11.9% 9.3% 9.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 10.8
9-9 33.5% 6.4% 6.4% 15.6 0.0 0.9 1.2 31.4
8-10 35.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 34.2
7-11 16.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 15.9
6-12 2.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.1 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 15.0 0.1 13.9 71.1 14.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.3%
Lose Out 1.0%