Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#196
Achievement Rating-0.8#179
Pace74.3#61
Improvement+1.7#103

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#238
First Shot+0.2#175
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#322
Layup/Dunks+1.1#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#26
Freethrows-2.6#324
Improvement-2.8#294

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#175
First Shot+1.1#135
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#286
Layups/Dunks+1.0#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#101
Freethrows-2.2#310
Improvement+4.5#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 9.7% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 72.2% 86.7% 53.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 100.0% 97.5%
Conference Champion 3.3% 5.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round8.5% 9.6% 7.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Away) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 65   @ Notre Dame L 67-84 13%     0 - 1 -7.0 -6.6 +0.9
  Nov 09, 2018 135   @ Radford L 78-88 25%     0 - 2 -5.1 +6.3 -11.4
  Nov 12, 2018 152   @ Duquesne L 88-89 30%     0 - 3 +2.4 +7.8 -5.3
  Nov 15, 2018 204   William & Mary W 100-95 62%     1 - 3 -0.4 +10.7 -11.7
  Nov 17, 2018 156   Bradley W 71-70 51%     2 - 3 -1.3 -1.3 +0.0
  Nov 28, 2018 182   @ Saint Joseph's L 75-89 37%     2 - 4 -12.6 -5.6 -5.7
  Dec 01, 2018 116   Loyola Chicago L 64-73 38%     2 - 5 -7.9 -5.9 -2.1
  Dec 05, 2018 165   Illinois St. W 94-75 53%     3 - 5 +16.0 +12.6 +2.0
  Dec 08, 2018 66   @ Colorado L 72-84 13%     3 - 6 -2.1 -2.1 +1.2
  Dec 14, 2018 98   @ DePaul L 70-90 18%     3 - 7 -12.2 -8.1 -1.8
  Dec 17, 2018 339   Incarnate Word W 63-57 90%     4 - 7 -10.3 -18.2 +8.2
  Dec 28, 2018 141   @ Wright St. W 75-72 26%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +7.5 -2.1 +9.4
  Dec 30, 2018 106   @ Northern Kentucky L 58-73 19%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -7.7 -11.9 +3.9
  Jan 04, 2019 205   IUPUI L 64-66 63%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -7.4 -10.3 +2.9
  Jan 10, 2019 283   Youngstown St. W 78-63 76%     6 - 9 2 - 2 +5.4 +2.3 +3.9
  Jan 12, 2019 306   Cleveland St. W 73-56 81%     7 - 9 3 - 2 +5.8 -4.7 +11.0
  Jan 17, 2019 304   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 69-81 63%     7 - 10 3 - 3 -17.5 -7.5 -9.9
  Jan 19, 2019 224   @ Green Bay L 85-90 46%     7 - 11 3 - 4 -6.1 +1.0 -6.6
  Jan 24, 2019 260   Detroit Mercy W 79-67 73%     8 - 11 4 - 4 +3.6 +4.7 -0.4
  Jan 26, 2019 216   Oakland L 67-80 65%     8 - 12 4 - 5 -19.0 -14.1 -4.4
  Feb 01, 2019 141   Wright St. W 67-53 46%     9 - 12 5 - 5 +13.0 -4.1 +17.6
  Feb 03, 2019 106   Northern Kentucky W 69-67 35%     10 - 12 6 - 5 +3.7 -5.1 +8.8
  Feb 09, 2019 205   @ IUPUI W 76-75 42%     11 - 12 7 - 5 +1.1 +1.5 -0.4
  Feb 14, 2019 306   @ Cleveland St. W 81-77 64%     12 - 12 8 - 5 -1.7 +2.6 -4.3
  Feb 16, 2019 283   @ Youngstown St. W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 22, 2019 224   Green Bay W 84-79 67%    
  Feb 24, 2019 304   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 28, 2019 216   @ Oakland L 75-77 43%    
  Mar 02, 2019 260   @ Detroit Mercy W 77-76 52%    
Projected Record 15.0 - 14.0 11.0 - 7.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 7.1 3.9 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 12.3 31.6 18.0 1.5 63.5 3rd
4th 2.3 9.5 0.5 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 4.4 1.4 5.8 5th
6th 0.3 1.2 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.7 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.1 8.1 23.2 33.8 25.7 8.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 32.7% 2.6    0.2 1.1 1.3
12-6 2.6% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 8.1% 14.7% 14.7% 14.5 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 6.9
12-6 25.7% 10.7% 10.7% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.9 0.7 23.0
11-7 33.8% 8.4% 8.4% 15.5 0.0 1.5 1.3 30.9
10-8 23.2% 6.7% 6.7% 15.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 21.7
9-9 8.1% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.1 0.3 7.7
8-10 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.3 91.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 14.5 3.5 48.0 46.9 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0%
Lose Out 0.4%