Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
29 Buffalo 96.5%   9   21 - 3 10 - 2 26 - 4 15 - 3 +12.9      +7.0 26 +5.8 34 83.5 9 +16.6 22 +14.0 1
67 Toledo 20.5%   19 - 5 8 - 4 23 - 7 12 - 6 +7.1      +3.6 77 +3.5 80 69.8 155 +9.9 58 +8.1 3
114 Bowling Green 7.7%   15 - 7 9 - 2 19 - 10 13 - 5 +3.9      +1.4 134 +2.5 105 73.9 66 +6.0 92 +12.1 2
116 Ball St. 4.0%   12 - 11 4 - 7 16 - 14 8 - 10 +3.8      +2.1 116 +1.7 123 73.2 81 +1.6 148 -2.5 10
125 Akron 4.1%   12 - 10 6 - 5 15 - 14 9 - 9 +3.1      -2.4 246 +5.6 39 65.2 286 +1.3 152 +3.1 5
138 Miami (OH) 2.6%   11 - 11 5 - 6 14 - 15 8 - 10 +2.2      +1.5 132 +0.7 149 64.3 305 +2.2 141 +1.9 7
145 Eastern Michigan 2.2%   7 - 13 5 - 6 10 - 17 8 - 10 +1.6      +0.6 154 +1.0 143 59.9 349 -0.9 180 +1.8 8
147 Northern Illinois 1.8%   10 - 13 5 - 7 13 - 16 8 - 10 +1.6      +1.9 124 -0.4 183 66.6 244 -1.5 189 -0.3 9
148 Central Michigan 2.1%   13 - 8 5 - 6 17 - 11 9 - 9 +1.3      +3.4 81 -2.1 233 75.2 52 +3.5 128 +2.3 6
149 Kent St. 2.6%   16 - 6 7 - 4 19 - 10 10 - 8 +1.3      +2.8 100 -1.5 211 70.0 150 +7.9 70 +5.8 4
208 Ohio 0.2%   10 - 12 3 - 8 12 - 17 5 - 13 -2.8      -5.6 309 +2.8 100 73.3 79 -1.0 181 -5.2 11
274 Western Michigan 0.0%   6 - 18 1 - 11 7 - 23 2 - 16 -6.4      -2.5 252 -3.8 273 70.3 139 -9.3 298 -13.0 12






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Buffalo 1.0 96.1 3.6 0.3 0.0
Toledo 2.6 2.4 48.3 41.2 5.8 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 2.3 10.0 58.3 24.0 5.7 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
Ball St. 7.1 0.2 2.0 9.9 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.1 13.5 14.7 1.1 0.0
Akron 5.5 0.1 2.9 8.4 23.9 21.1 16.5 11.9 8.1 5.0 2.0 0.2
Miami (OH) 6.8 0.0 0.7 2.9 12.0 14.9 15.6 15.6 15.1 13.3 8.9 1.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 6.7 0.7 3.9 11.2 15.3 15.5 15.4 14.4 12.7 10.4 0.5 0.0
Northern Illinois 7.6 0.1 0.9 4.8 10.3 13.3 16.6 18.1 18.1 16.9 0.8
Central Michigan 6.4 0.0 0.9 4.6 15.7 17.6 16.5 14.3 12.2 10.0 7.5 0.7 0.0
Kent St. 4.6 0.2 5.9 14.8 36.4 18.2 11.4 6.8 4.1 1.8 0.5
Ohio 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 3.2 10.0 82.2 2.4
Western Michigan 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.3 90.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Buffalo 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 13.1 37.1 46.5
Toledo 12 - 6 0.1 1.0 5.9 18.0 31.5 31.2 12.4
Bowling Green 13 - 5 0.7 4.5 14.0 25.6 28.0 19.1 7.1 0.9
Ball St. 8 - 10 0.3 2.4 8.7 18.8 27.7 25.0 13.5 3.5
Akron 9 - 9 1.1 7.0 18.8 28.5 26.2 14.1 3.9 0.4
Miami (OH) 8 - 10 1.1 6.7 18.0 27.6 25.5 15.3 5.1 0.7
Eastern Michigan 8 - 10 0.9 6.3 17.9 27.5 26.1 15.4 5.2 0.7
Northern Illinois 8 - 10 1.5 10.2 25.7 32.7 21.6 7.5 1.0
Central Michigan 9 - 9 0.7 4.7 14.0 24.4 27.7 19.5 7.6 1.4
Kent St. 10 - 8 1.8 9.8 23.0 30.3 22.6 10.0 2.3 0.2
Ohio 5 - 13 15.7 32.1 29.6 16.3 5.2 1.1 0.1
Western Michigan 2 - 16 25.8 37.9 24.9 9.2 1.9 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Buffalo 96.1% 88.2 7.1 0.7 0.0
Toledo 2.4% 0.2 1.5 0.7 0.0
Bowling Green 10.0% 3.5 5.8 0.6 0.0
Ball St.
Akron 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 0.0% 0.0
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0
Kent St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ohio
Western Michigan


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Buffalo 96.5% 55.3% 41.2% 9   0.4 2.4 4.8 9.6 13.5 14.8 14.6 19.4 13.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 3.5 92.2%
Toledo 20.5% 17.5% 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 5.0 9.1 4.5 0.4 0.0 79.5 3.6%
Bowling Green 7.7% 7.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 92.3 0.1%
Ball St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.1 96.0 0.0%
Akron 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.0 95.9 0.0%
Miami (OH) 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 97.4 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 97.8 0.0%
Northern Illinois 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 98.2 0.0%
Central Michigan 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 97.9 0.0%
Kent St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 97.4 0.0%
Ohio 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Buffalo 96.5% 9.2% 92.7% 50.9% 15.7% 5.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
Toledo 20.5% 2.8% 19.0% 4.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 4.1% 0.0% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 2.2% 0.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 56.4 43.0 0.6
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 0.0 61.3 38.4 0.3
2nd Round 55.1% 0.6 44.9 51.7 3.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 17.1% 0.2 82.9 16.9 0.3
Elite Eight 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.1 0.0
Final Four 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8 0.0
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1