Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Achievement Rating Conference Achievement Rating
23 Buffalo 91.6%   6   8 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 4 15 - 3 +13.0      +7.9 20 +5.1 47 79.3 25 +24.0 6 0.0 1
77 Toledo 28.5%   8 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 6 +6.5      +4.5 60 +2.0 111 70.0 178 +14.0 36 0.0 1
105 Ball St. 13.0%   5 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +4.8      +4.3 68 +0.5 154 72.9 113 +6.7 100 0.0 1
130 Akron 5.8%   5 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +2.7      -0.1 171 +2.8 88 66.6 262 -0.9 185 0.0 1
142 Kent St. 4.7%   7 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +1.7      +2.6 105 -0.9 194 70.0 179 +11.3 54 0.0 1
151 Miami (OH) 3.0%   4 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 +0.7      +2.9 100 -2.2 239 65.5 293 +1.9 151 0.0 1
153 Ohio 3.1%   5 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 +0.6      -2.2 241 +2.8 89 79.5 23 +2.9 139 0.0 1
161 Northern Illinois 2.2%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -0.1      +5.4 43 -5.5 315 64.0 318 -3.7 217 0.0 1
173 Central Michigan 1.6%   6 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 10 -0.8      +0.8 151 -1.6 220 73.5 104 +4.5 121 0.0 1
182 Eastern Michigan 1.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 11 -1.4      -0.4 178 -1.0 198 62.1 340 -5.9 244 0.0 1
202 Bowling Green 0.6%   4 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 17 6 - 12 -2.6      -1.8 230 -0.7 184 73.9 94 -4.1 223 0.0 1
224 Western Michigan 0.4%   4 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 12 -3.6      -1.6 222 -2.0 231 68.6 216 -4.9 230 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Buffalo 1.4 77.5 14.2 4.9 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Toledo 3.3 15.9 29.1 19.7 12.8 8.2 5.5 3.6 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2
Ball St. 3.9 9.9 24.9 19.7 14.2 10.1 7.0 5.2 3.5 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.5
Akron 5.3 4.1 11.4 15.0 14.6 13.1 10.9 8.9 7.4 5.7 4.3 3.1 1.6
Kent St. 5.8 3.0 8.9 12.2 13.2 12.8 11.4 10.0 8.6 7.2 5.8 4.3 2.7
Miami (OH) 7.0 1.3 5.1 7.6 9.1 10.5 10.9 11.4 11.0 10.3 9.5 7.9 5.5
Ohio 6.8 1.4 5.3 8.1 9.7 10.8 11.4 11.4 11.0 10.0 8.9 7.2 4.8
Northern Illinois 7.0 1.3 5.5 7.6 9.2 10.3 10.8 10.9 10.8 10.1 9.3 8.1 6.1
Central Michigan 7.3 0.8 4.2 6.7 8.5 9.7 10.6 11.1 11.1 10.7 10.1 9.1 7.4
Eastern Michigan 8.1 0.5 2.5 4.3 5.8 7.5 9.0 10.3 11.3 12.0 12.9 12.7 11.4
Bowling Green 8.6 0.3 1.5 3.1 4.6 6.4 7.7 9.3 10.7 12.1 13.6 15.2 15.5
Western Michigan 9.1 0.2 1.1 2.3 3.5 5.0 6.4 8.0 9.8 11.7 13.9 16.9 21.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Buffalo 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.6 8.3 13.4 18.8 22.0 19.1 9.8
Toledo 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.6 7.6 10.7 13.9 15.5 15.0 12.8 8.8 4.6 1.7 0.3
Ball St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.8 9.7 12.5 14.3 14.7 13.3 10.1 6.2 3.2 1.0 0.1
Akron 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.4 6.1 8.9 11.8 13.8 14.4 13.0 10.6 7.5 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Kent St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.0 7.8 10.7 13.0 13.8 13.6 11.5 8.7 5.7 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 5.6 8.6 11.6 13.4 14.1 13.1 10.8 7.8 5.1 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 5.0 8.2 11.2 13.5 14.4 13.4 11.1 8.4 5.4 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.9 8.7 11.3 13.4 13.7 12.7 10.6 8.0 5.1 3.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.8 6.5 9.7 12.3 14.0 13.7 12.3 10.0 7.0 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 3.1 5.9 9.4 12.4 14.1 14.2 12.7 10.4 7.1 4.7 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 6 - 12 0.3 1.6 4.3 7.8 11.4 13.8 14.6 13.8 11.5 8.5 5.8 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 6 - 12 0.6 2.7 5.9 9.9 13.2 14.9 14.5 12.7 9.9 6.9 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Buffalo 77.5% 65.7 10.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Toledo 15.9% 9.3 5.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 9.9% 5.1 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Akron 4.1% 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 3.0% 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio 1.4% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 0.8% 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Buffalo 91.6% 55.7% 36.0% 6   2.4 7.3 9.5 11.0 10.9 9.6 10.7 10.2 8.8 6.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 81.1%
Toledo 28.5% 15.1% 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.7 5.0 8.1 6.1 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 71.5 15.8%
Ball St. 13.0% 9.4% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 3.3 4.1 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 87.0 3.9%
Akron 5.8% 5.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 94.2 0.6%
Kent St. 4.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 95.3 1.0%
Miami (OH) 3.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 97.0 0.4%
Ohio 3.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 96.9 0.6%
Northern Illinois 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 97.8 0.1%
Central Michigan 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 98.4 0.1%
Eastern Michigan 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.7 0.1%
Bowling Green 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.4 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Buffalo 91.6% 1.9% 90.7% 59.3% 27.4% 11.6% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7%
Toledo 28.5% 5.6% 25.3% 8.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 13.0% 2.3% 11.7% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 5.8% 0.5% 5.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 4.7% 0.7% 4.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 3.0% 0.3% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 3.1% 0.4% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 2.2% 0.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 49.8 44.9 5.1 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 0.0 54.5 42.0 3.4 0.1
2nd Round 66.7% 0.7 33.3 59.2 7.3 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 30.2% 0.3 69.8 29.5 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 12.4% 0.1 87.6 12.3 0.1
Final Four 4.9% 0.0 95.1 4.9 0.0
Final Game 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9 0.0
Champion 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7