Toledo
Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#76
Achievement Rating+14.2#33
Pace69.9#184
Improvement+3.1#17

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#59
First Shot+3.8#70
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#121
Layup/Dunks-1.5#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#31
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement-0.1#184

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#111
First Shot+2.4#101
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#198
Layups/Dunks-4.7#320
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#7
Freethrows+3.8#17
Improvement+3.3#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.2% 31.4% 17.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.1% 18.1% 6.9%
Average Seed 10.2 10.2 11.1
.500 or above 99.4% 99.6% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 91.6% 85.6%
Conference Champion 16.6% 17.1% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four5.8% 6.0% 3.2%
First Round27.0% 28.0% 15.6%
Second Round9.3% 9.8% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.4% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 91.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 234   @ Oakland W 87-86 78%     1 - 0 -0.5 +12.8 -13.2
  Nov 14, 2018 142   @ Wright St. L 74-84 57%     1 - 1 -5.3 -4.9 +0.5
  Nov 19, 2018 240   Florida Gulf Coast W 90-62 86%     2 - 1 +23.2 +13.2 +9.7
  Nov 20, 2018 115   Louisiana W 77-64 60%     3 - 1 +17.0 +7.1 +10.1
  Nov 21, 2018 98   UC Irvine W 67-60 55%     4 - 1 +12.3 +2.6 +10.1
  Nov 28, 2018 328   North Alabama W 80-59 96%     5 - 1 +6.7 +4.7 +2.6
  Dec 01, 2018 257   Cleveland St. W 80-67 91%     6 - 1 +4.7 -3.5 +7.1
  Dec 05, 2018 303   Detroit Mercy W 101-57 94%     7 - 1 +33.2 +19.2 +13.7
  Dec 08, 2018 130   @ Marshall W 75-74 53%     8 - 1 +6.8 -3.3 +9.9
  Dec 15, 2018 242   Middle Tennessee W 78-63 92%    
  Dec 19, 2018 231   Cornell W 81-67 90%    
  Dec 29, 2018 92   Penn W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 04, 2019 103   Ball St. W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 08, 2019 23   @ Buffalo L 75-84 20%    
  Jan 12, 2019 223   @ Western Michigan W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 15, 2019 151   Miami (OH) W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 18, 2019 152   Ohio W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 22, 2019 143   @ Kent St. W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 26, 2019 173   Central Michigan W 82-71 83%    
  Jan 29, 2019 151   @ Miami (OH) W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 02, 2019 162   @ Northern Illinois W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 05, 2019 131   Akron W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 09, 2019 202   @ Bowling Green W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 16, 2019 23   Buffalo L 78-81 39%    
  Feb 19, 2019 183   @ Eastern Michigan W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 23, 2019 162   Northern Illinois W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 26, 2019 103   @ Ball St. L 76-77 46%    
  Mar 02, 2019 173   @ Central Michigan W 79-74 66%    
  Mar 05, 2019 223   Western Michigan W 79-66 88%    
  Mar 08, 2019 183   Eastern Michigan W 75-64 84%    
Projected Record 22.4 - 7.6 12.0 - 6.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.6 5.1 4.1 1.8 0.3 16.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.7 9.3 8.2 3.8 0.7 29.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.6 7.4 4.2 1.0 0.1 19.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.2 5.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.5 7.3 10.6 13.7 15.5 15.2 12.8 9.0 4.8 1.8 0.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 85.4% 4.1    3.1 1.0 0.0
15-3 56.4% 5.1    2.9 2.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 28.1% 3.6    1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 9.2% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 9.8 5.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 96.5% 48.1% 48.4% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.2%
17-1 1.8% 91.4% 41.5% 49.9% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 85.3%
16-2 4.8% 79.1% 33.1% 46.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 68.8%
15-3 9.0% 65.7% 27.4% 38.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 52.8%
14-4 12.8% 49.8% 22.8% 27.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.4 34.9%
13-5 15.2% 34.5% 18.3% 16.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.0 19.7%
12-6 15.5% 22.8% 14.9% 8.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 12.0 9.4%
11-7 13.7% 13.8% 10.6% 3.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 11.8 3.6%
10-8 10.6% 8.4% 7.5% 0.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.7 0.9%
9-9 7.3% 5.0% 4.8% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.0 0.1%
8-10 4.5% 3.5% 3.5% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3
7-11 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
6-12 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 30.2% 15.8% 14.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.0 5.4 8.5 5.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 69.8 17.1%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.6 0.8 28.8 24.6 20.3 14.4 5.9 2.5 1.7 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 95.7% 4.4 5.7 22.9 25.7 24.3 8.6 4.3 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 97.0% 4.9 18.2 18.2 36.4 9.1 12.1 3.0