Toledo
Mid-American
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#67
Achievement Rating+9.9#57
Pace69.8#157
Improvement+1.1#135

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#81
First Shot+2.0#126
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#65
Layup/Dunks-2.4#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#47
Freethrows-1.7#296
Improvement-1.0#239

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#77
First Shot+2.6#94
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#82
Layups/Dunks-1.9#257
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#22
Freethrows+3.3#13
Improvement+2.2#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 22.2% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.5% 5.1% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.7% 3.9% 0.9%
First Round18.2% 20.0% 15.3%
Second Round4.4% 5.1% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 216   @ Oakland W 87-86 77%     1 - 0 +0.5 +15.0 -14.5
  Nov 14, 2018 141   @ Wright St. L 74-84 60%     1 - 1 -5.5 -3.8 -0.7
  Nov 19, 2018 230   Florida Gulf Coast W 90-62 85%     2 - 1 +23.8 +15.0 +8.5
  Nov 20, 2018 185   Louisiana W 77-64 79%     3 - 1 +11.5 +2.1 +9.5
  Nov 21, 2018 107   UC Irvine W 67-60 60%     4 - 1 +11.4 +2.0 +9.8
  Nov 28, 2018 319   North Alabama W 80-59 96%     5 - 1 +8.2 +5.2 +3.6
  Dec 01, 2018 306   Cleveland St. W 80-67 95%     6 - 1 +1.8 -6.6 +7.3
  Dec 05, 2018 260   Detroit Mercy W 101-57 92%     7 - 1 +35.6 +21.0 +14.2
  Dec 08, 2018 202   @ Marshall W 75-74 74%     8 - 1 +1.3 -8.8 +10.0
  Dec 15, 2018 244   Middle Tennessee W 84-62 91%     9 - 1 +14.4 +6.6 +7.3
  Dec 19, 2018 210   Cornell W 86-70 88%     10 - 1 +10.3 +15.5 -4.2
  Dec 29, 2018 132   Penn W 77-45 76%     11 - 1 +31.8 +5.6 +26.7
  Jan 04, 2019 120   Ball St. L 64-79 72%     11 - 2 0 - 1 -14.1 -11.4 -1.9
  Jan 08, 2019 28   @ Buffalo L 80-110 21%     11 - 3 0 - 2 -14.3 +3.1 -13.1
  Jan 12, 2019 263   @ Western Michigan W 85-77 83%     12 - 3 1 - 2 +4.9 +9.3 -4.5
  Jan 15, 2019 144   Miami (OH) W 71-59 78%     13 - 3 2 - 2 +11.0 +3.3 +8.7
  Jan 18, 2019 209   Ohio W 75-52 88%     14 - 3 3 - 2 +17.4 +6.4 +12.0
  Jan 22, 2019 142   @ Kent St. L 85-87 60%     14 - 4 3 - 3 +2.5 +8.4 -5.8
  Jan 26, 2019 147   Central Michigan W 76-72 79%     15 - 4 4 - 3 +2.6 -3.9 +6.3
  Jan 29, 2019 144   @ Miami (OH) W 66-63 60%     16 - 4 5 - 3 +7.5 -0.2 +8.0
  Feb 02, 2019 150   @ Northern Illinois W 69-55 64%     17 - 4 6 - 3 +17.5 +4.1 +15.0
  Feb 05, 2019 126   Akron W 63-52 74%     18 - 4 7 - 3 +11.5 -4.0 +15.6
  Feb 09, 2019 100   @ Bowling Green W 78-71 48%     19 - 4 8 - 3 +14.7 +5.4 +9.0
  Feb 15, 2019 28   Buffalo L 82-88 38%     19 - 5 8 - 4 +4.1 +4.5 +0.4
  Feb 19, 2019 149   @ Eastern Michigan W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 23, 2019 150   Northern Illinois W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 26, 2019 120   @ Ball St. W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 02, 2019 147   @ Central Michigan W 80-77 60%    
  Mar 05, 2019 263   Western Michigan W 81-65 93%    
  Mar 08, 2019 149   Eastern Michigan W 71-62 80%    
Projected Record 23.3 - 6.7 12.3 - 5.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 6.7 16.5 9.9 33.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 13.5 24.1 14.4 1.8 55.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 3.5 0.7 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.4 0.9 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.9 5.4 17.6 31.5 31.3 13.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 12.1% 1.6    0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 1.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 13.3% 34.4% 21.8% 12.5% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 8.7 16.0%
13-5 31.3% 22.3% 19.0% 3.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.2 0.1 24.3 4.1%
12-6 31.5% 17.0% 16.3% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 26.1 0.8%
11-7 17.6% 13.0% 13.0% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 15.3 0.1%
10-8 5.4% 8.9% 8.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.0
9-9 0.9% 6.2% 6.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.7% 16.8% 2.9% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 5.0 8.7 4.3 0.4 0.0 80.3 3.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 10.7 0.2 2.0 4.0 4.6 19.7 46.7 21.1 1.7 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6% 23.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.4 12.5 4.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6% 14.4% 12.0 0.3 2.9 7.7 3.2 0.2
Lose Out 0.0%