Pre-tourney Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+22.6#3
Expected Predictive Rating+24.0#2
Pace79.2#18
Improvement-7.1#343

Offense
Total Offense+11.4#7
First Shot+7.4#15
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#7
Layup/Dunks+9.2#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#254
Freethrows+1.6#65
Improvement-5.4#341

Defense
Total Defense+11.1#5
First Shot+12.3#1
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#293
Layups/Dunks+0.5#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#9
Freethrows+5.0#1
Improvement-1.7#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 24.1% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 76.3% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 99.5% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.2 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round99.2% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen86.1% n/a n/a
Elite Eight66.1% n/a n/a
Final Four43.3% n/a n/a
Championship Game25.8% n/a n/a
National Champion14.8% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a9.0 - 4.09.0 - 4.0
Quad 1b2.0 - 0.011.0 - 4.0
Quad 26.0 - 1.017.0 - 5.0
Quad 37.0 - 0.024.0 - 5.0
Quad 45.0 - 0.029.0 - 5.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 7   Kentucky W 118-84 62%     1 - 0 +53.5 +36.6 +11.7
  Nov 11, 2018 242   Army W 94-72 99%     2 - 0 +14.3 +10.5 +1.4
  Nov 14, 2018 151   Eastern Michigan W 84-46 98%     3 - 0 +36.2 +7.7 +26.9
  Nov 19, 2018 104   San Diego St. W 90-64 94%     4 - 0 +30.6 +18.9 +10.9
  Nov 20, 2018 11   Auburn W 78-72 71%     5 - 0 +22.7 +9.8 +12.9
  Nov 21, 2018 1   Gonzaga L 87-89 46%     5 - 1 +21.7 +20.7 +1.1
  Nov 27, 2018 39   Indiana W 90-69 90%     6 - 1 +29.3 +12.5 +14.5
  Dec 01, 2018 330   Stetson W 113-49 99.7%    7 - 1 +49.5 +15.2 +24.7
  Dec 05, 2018 193   Hartford W 84-54 99%     8 - 1 +25.2 +1.5 +22.6
  Dec 08, 2018 87   Yale W 91-58 95%     9 - 1 +36.1 +2.9 +28.0
  Dec 18, 2018 173   Princeton W 101-50 98%     10 - 1 +47.5 +23.1 +21.1
  Dec 20, 2018 9   Texas Tech W 69-58 66%     11 - 1 +29.2 -1.5 +29.2
  Jan 05, 2019 29   Clemson W 87-68 88%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +29.0 +13.5 +13.6
  Jan 08, 2019 153   @ Wake Forest W 87-65 95%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +25.7 +10.7 +13.6
  Jan 12, 2019 13   @ Florida St. W 80-78 63%     14 - 1 3 - 0 +21.1 +16.0 +5.0
  Jan 14, 2019 33   Syracuse L 91-95 OT 89%     14 - 2 3 - 1 +5.0 +3.0 +2.9
  Jan 19, 2019 2   Virginia W 72-70 59%     15 - 2 4 - 1 +22.2 +16.3 +6.2
  Jan 22, 2019 93   @ Pittsburgh W 79-64 91%     16 - 2 5 - 1 +23.1 +13.4 +10.0
  Jan 26, 2019 100   Georgia Tech W 66-53 96%     17 - 2 6 - 1 +15.0 -2.1 +17.2
  Jan 28, 2019 77   @ Notre Dame W 83-61 89%     18 - 2 7 - 1 +31.0 +25.5 +8.4
  Feb 02, 2019 73   St. John's W 91-61 95%     19 - 2 +34.2 +11.4 +20.1
  Feb 05, 2019 106   Boston College W 80-55 96%     20 - 2 8 - 1 +26.8 +8.8 +18.4
  Feb 09, 2019 2   @ Virginia W 81-71 38%     21 - 2 9 - 1 +35.8 +28.7 +8.1
  Feb 12, 2019 19   @ Louisville W 71-69 68%     22 - 2 10 - 1 +19.7 +4.4 +15.2
  Feb 16, 2019 31   North Carolina St. W 94-78 88%     23 - 2 11 - 1 +25.6 +16.3 +7.8
  Feb 20, 2019 4   North Carolina L 72-88 64%     23 - 3 11 - 2 +2.8 -7.1 +13.1
  Feb 23, 2019 33   @ Syracuse W 75-65 78%     24 - 3 12 - 2 +24.5 +14.9 +10.2
  Feb 26, 2019 12   @ Virginia Tech L 72-77 63%     24 - 4 12 - 3 +14.1 +14.8 -1.2
  Mar 02, 2019 66   Miami (FL) W 87-57 94%     25 - 4 13 - 3 +34.9 +11.6 +21.8
  Mar 05, 2019 153   Wake Forest W 71-70 98%     26 - 4 14 - 3 -0.9 -7.6 +6.7
  Mar 09, 2019 4   @ North Carolina L 70-79 43%     26 - 5 14 - 4 +15.3 +2.3 +13.9
  Mar 14, 2019 33   Syracuse W 84-72 84%     27 - 5 +23.7 +16.7 +6.8
  Mar 15, 2019 4   North Carolina W 74-73 54%     28 - 5 +22.6 +8.2 +14.3
  Mar 16, 2019 13   Florida St. W 73-63 73%     29 - 5 +26.3 +10.9 +15.6
Projected Record 29.0 - 5.0 14.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.2 76.3 23.2 0.5
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.2 76.3 23.2 0.5