Pre-tourney Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+21.4#5
Expected Predictive Rating+20.7#6
Pace69.1#161
Improvement+1.0#144

Offense
Total Offense+12.2#4
First Shot+10.3#3
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#48
Layup/Dunks+3.8#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#69
Freethrows+2.6#25
Improvement+0.3#168

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#11
First Shot+8.6#9
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#101
Layups/Dunks+3.5#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#77
Freethrows+2.7#27
Improvement+0.7#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.8% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 35.9% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 92.6% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% n/a n/a
Conference Champion 0.0% n/a n/a
Last Place in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round98.3% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen81.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight58.8% n/a n/a
Final Four34.5% n/a n/a
Championship Game19.1% n/a n/a
National Champion10.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7.0 - 3.07.0 - 3.0
Quad 1b6.0 - 1.013.0 - 4.0
Quad 26.0 - 2.019.0 - 6.0
Quad 35.0 - 0.024.0 - 6.0
Quad 44.0 - 0.028.0 - 6.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 17   Kansas L 87-92 73%     0 - 1 +10.1 +8.0 +3.0
  Nov 11, 2018 220   Florida Gulf Coast W 106-82 99%     1 - 1 +17.9 +14.1 +0.1
  Nov 14, 2018 145   Louisiana Monroe W 80-59 97%     2 - 1 +19.8 -0.6 +19.8
  Nov 18, 2018 326   Tennessee Tech W 101-33 99.6%    3 - 1 +54.0 +28.8 +26.9
  Nov 22, 2018 108   UCLA W 87-67 93%     4 - 1 +24.5 +10.7 +12.7
  Nov 23, 2018 30   Texas W 78-68 80%     5 - 1 +22.5 +8.5 +13.7
  Nov 27, 2018 19   @ Louisville L 78-82 OT 64%     5 - 2 +13.7 +7.8 +6.3
  Nov 30, 2018 74   @ Rutgers W 78-67 86%     6 - 2 +20.6 +19.3 +2.3
  Dec 03, 2018 36   Iowa W 90-68 88%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +30.5 +20.9 +10.4
  Dec 08, 2018 28   @ Florida W 63-59 70%     8 - 2 +19.9 +9.1 +11.4
  Dec 16, 2018 218   Green Bay W 104-83 99%     9 - 2 +15.1 +9.2 +2.1
  Dec 21, 2018 187   Oakland W 99-69 98%     10 - 2 +25.7 +20.6 +4.8
  Dec 29, 2018 135   Northern Illinois W 88-60 97%     11 - 2 +27.6 +10.1 +16.4
  Jan 02, 2019 71   Northwestern W 81-55 94%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +30.3 +14.0 +16.1
  Jan 05, 2019 46   @ Ohio St. W 86-77 78%     13 - 2 3 - 0 +22.4 +22.1 +0.3
  Jan 08, 2019 10   Purdue W 77-59 73%     14 - 2 4 - 0 +32.9 +16.6 +18.1
  Jan 13, 2019 42   @ Penn St. W 71-56 77%     15 - 2 5 - 0 +28.5 +9.2 +19.9
  Jan 17, 2019 38   @ Nebraska W 70-64 77%     16 - 2 6 - 0 +19.9 +4.9 +15.1
  Jan 21, 2019 23   Maryland W 69-55 83%     17 - 2 7 - 0 +25.2 +10.6 +16.4
  Jan 24, 2019 36   @ Iowa W 82-67 76%     18 - 2 8 - 0 +29.1 +14.0 +15.4
  Jan 27, 2019 10   @ Purdue L 63-73 54%     18 - 3 8 - 1 +10.5 +2.5 +7.2
  Feb 02, 2019 39   Indiana L 75-79 OT 89%     18 - 4 8 - 2 +4.3 +5.2 -0.8
  Feb 05, 2019 75   @ Illinois L 74-79 87%     18 - 5 8 - 3 +4.5 +4.8 -0.3
  Feb 09, 2019 45   Minnesota W 79-55 89%     19 - 5 9 - 3 +31.9 +15.7 +17.7
  Feb 12, 2019 14   @ Wisconsin W 67-59 60%     20 - 5 10 - 3 +26.7 +11.8 +15.5
  Feb 17, 2019 46   Ohio St. W 62-44 89%     21 - 5 11 - 3 +25.8 +0.8 +26.9
  Feb 20, 2019 74   Rutgers W 71-60 94%     22 - 5 12 - 3 +15.0 +6.6 +9.1
  Feb 24, 2019 6   @ Michigan W 77-70 45%     23 - 5 13 - 3 +29.7 +26.9 +3.6
  Mar 02, 2019 39   @ Indiana L 62-63 77%     23 - 6 13 - 4 +12.9 +7.9 +4.8
  Mar 05, 2019 38   Nebraska W 91-76 89%     24 - 6 14 - 4 +23.3 +24.2 -0.5
  Mar 09, 2019 6   Michigan W 75-63 66%     25 - 6 15 - 4 +29.1 +17.5 +12.3
  Mar 15, 2019 46   Ohio St. W 77-70 84%     26 - 6 +17.6 +15.7 +2.4
  Mar 16, 2019 14   Wisconsin W 67-55 70%     27 - 6 +27.9 +8.5 +19.9
  Mar 17, 2019 6   Michigan W 65-60 56%     28 - 6 +24.9 +14.8 +10.9
Projected Record 28.0 - 6.0 15.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.7 35.9 56.6 7.4 0.1
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.7 35.9 56.6 7.4 0.1