Preseason Rankings
Horizon
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
128 Northern Kentucky 36.7%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 5 +2.7      +1.1 130 +1.5 124 70.3 147 0.0 1 0.0 1
138 Wright St. 32.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 5 +2.2      -1.5 211 +3.6 65 69.3 175 0.0 1 0.0 1
181 Illinois-Chicago 15.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 7 -1.0      -1.6 216 +0.6 147 76.6 34 0.0 1 0.0 1
235 Green Bay 6.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 9 -4.2      -2.5 247 -1.7 233 77.7 24 0.0 1 0.0 1
245 Oakland 4.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -4.8      -3.4 268 -1.4 224 73.7 66 0.0 1 0.0 1
261 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 10 -5.7      -4.9 304 -0.8 195 64.8 285 0.0 1 0.0 1
275 IUPUI 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -6.1      -4.8 301 -1.3 220 65.1 278 0.0 1 0.0 1
281 Cleveland St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -6.2      -3.5 272 -2.7 269 67.1 226 0.0 1 0.0 1
329 Youngstown St. 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -11.2      -4.7 295 -6.6 342 74.7 54 0.0 1 0.0 1
336 Detroit Mercy 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 24 5 - 13 -12.2      -4.7 296 -7.6 348 78.2 20 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Northern Kentucky 2.4 40.6 22.8 14.7 9.2 5.4 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2
Wright St. 2.6 36.2 24.1 15.5 10.0 6.0 4.1 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 3.7 17.6 19.2 18.3 14.1 10.4 7.6 5.7 4.2 2.0 0.9
Green Bay 5.0 7.3 10.4 12.5 14.1 14.0 13.1 11.2 8.8 5.7 3.1
Oakland 5.2 5.9 8.9 11.8 13.5 14.3 13.9 12.1 10.0 6.7 3.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5.6 4.2 7.6 10.2 12.4 13.4 13.6 13.4 11.2 9.0 5.1
IUPUI 5.8 3.9 6.3 9.4 11.2 12.9 14.4 13.6 13.0 9.9 5.5
Cleveland St. 5.9 3.9 6.1 9.2 10.6 13.1 13.9 13.8 13.1 10.3 6.1
Youngstown St. 7.9 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.8 6.1 8.7 11.8 16.7 23.0 25.5
Detroit Mercy 8.2 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.7 4.6 6.9 10.7 16.5 22.9 32.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Northern Kentucky 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.7 4.2 6.6 9.2 11.1 13.0 13.6 14.3 11.7 7.1 3.3
Wright St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.2 5.1 7.5 9.0 11.8 13.7 14.2 13.1 10.2 6.0 2.5
Illinois-Chicago 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.6 4.8 6.8 8.6 10.8 12.6 12.2 11.6 10.1 7.4 4.6 2.2 0.6
Green Bay 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.1 8.2 9.6 10.9 12.0 10.8 10.6 8.8 7.3 4.7 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.1
Oakland 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.8 6.4 8.8 10.5 11.6 11.9 11.6 9.8 7.8 6.6 3.8 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 5.4 7.6 9.9 10.9 11.7 11.6 10.6 8.9 6.8 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1
IUPUI 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.2 8.8 10.1 11.3 12.2 11.2 9.7 8.4 6.3 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Cleveland St. 8 - 10 0.3 0.7 2.0 4.1 6.8 9.0 9.9 11.3 12.4 11.1 9.4 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Youngstown St. 5 - 13 2.5 5.9 8.9 13.4 14.0 13.8 11.0 9.8 7.2 5.0 3.7 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 5 - 13 3.5 8.5 12.3 13.9 14.1 13.2 10.7 8.5 5.9 4.1 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Northern Kentucky 40.6% 30.5 8.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
Wright St. 36.2% 26.3 8.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 17.6% 11.3 4.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
Green Bay 7.3% 4.1 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Oakland 5.9% 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.2% 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
IUPUI 3.9% 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 3.9% 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Youngstown St. 0.6% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Northern Kentucky 36.7% 36.4% 0.4% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.3 4.2 7.4 9.1 7.9 5.4 63.3 0.6%
Wright St. 32.9% 32.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.4 3.7 6.1 7.7 7.6 5.4 67.1 0.6%
Illinois-Chicago 15.9% 15.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.8 4.4 5.4 84.1 0.1%
Green Bay 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 2.6 94.0 0.0%
Oakland 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 95.1 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
IUPUI 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.1 96.3 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Youngstown St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Northern Kentucky 36.7% 2.9% 35.5% 5.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 32.9% 2.7% 31.8% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 15.9% 3.5% 14.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 6.0% 1.5% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 4.9% 1.4% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 3.7% 1.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
1st Round 93.7% 0.9 6.3 93.2 0.6
2nd Round 12.9% 0.1 87.1 12.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0