Preseason Rankings
Illinois-Chicago
Horizon
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#181
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.6#34
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#216
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#147
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 26.8% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.7 13.8 14.8
.500 or above 57.5% 81.4% 54.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.7% 90.6% 79.5%
Conference Champion 17.6% 28.7% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.4% 1.7%
First Four3.5% 2.2% 3.7%
First Round14.3% 25.9% 13.0%
Second Round1.5% 3.1% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 10.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.50.0 - 0.5
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.10.1 - 1.6
Quad 20.7 - 3.00.8 - 4.6
Quad 33.5 - 5.54.4 - 10.1
Quad 410.9 - 3.615.2 - 13.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 49   @ Notre Dame L 67-78 10%    
  Nov 09, 2018 149   @ Radford L 67-69 32%    
  Nov 12, 2018 182   @ Duquesne W 73-72 39%    
  Nov 15, 2018 164   William & Mary L 80-81 58%    
  Nov 17, 2018 117   Bradley L 69-73 46%    
  Nov 28, 2018 106   @ Saint Joseph's L 73-78 25%    
  Dec 01, 2018 67   Loyola Chicago L 66-75 30%    
  Dec 05, 2018 75   Illinois St. L 72-80 34%    
  Dec 08, 2018 84   @ Colorado L 70-77 20%    
  Dec 14, 2018 89   @ DePaul L 72-78 21%    
  Dec 17, 2018 330   Incarnate Word W 81-70 88%    
  Dec 28, 2018 138   @ Wright St. L 70-73 29%    
  Dec 30, 2018 128   @ Northern Kentucky L 73-77 29%    
  Jan 04, 2019 275   IUPUI W 73-68 76%    
  Jan 10, 2019 329   Youngstown St. W 83-73 87%    
  Jan 12, 2019 281   Cleveland St. W 75-70 76%    
  Jan 17, 2019 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-67 56%    
  Jan 19, 2019 235   @ Green Bay W 80-77 51%    
  Jan 24, 2019 336   Detroit Mercy W 86-75 89%    
  Jan 26, 2019 245   Oakland W 78-74 71%    
  Feb 01, 2019 138   Wright St. L 70-73 50%    
  Feb 03, 2019 128   Northern Kentucky L 73-77 48%    
  Feb 09, 2019 275   @ IUPUI W 73-68 58%    
  Feb 14, 2019 281   @ Cleveland St. W 75-70 57%    
  Feb 16, 2019 329   @ Youngstown St. W 83-73 73%    
  Feb 22, 2019 235   Green Bay W 80-77 70%    
  Feb 24, 2019 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 72-67 75%    
  Feb 28, 2019 245   @ Oakland W 78-74 52%    
  Mar 02, 2019 336   @ Detroit Mercy W 86-75 75%    
Projected Record 15.2 - 13.8 11.2 - 6.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.7 4.8 4.3 2.2 0.6 17.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.2 5.5 2.6 0.3 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 5.6 6.6 3.5 0.8 0.0 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.9 5.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 3.5 1.1 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.2 0.7 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.6 4.8 6.8 8.6 10.8 12.6 12.2 11.6 10.1 7.4 4.6 2.2 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.0
16-2 94.0% 4.3    3.4 0.9 0.0
15-3 64.4% 4.8    3.2 1.4 0.2
14-4 37.1% 3.7    1.5 1.7 0.6 0.0
13-5 14.2% 1.6    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 11.3 4.8 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 64.6% 62.1% 2.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6.6%
17-1 2.2% 63.8% 61.8% 2.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 5.2%
16-2 4.6% 49.8% 49.8% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.3 0.1%
15-3 7.4% 35.7% 35.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.2 4.8
14-4 10.1% 23.7% 23.7% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.6 7.7
13-5 11.6% 19.5% 19.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.9 9.3
12-6 12.2% 13.5% 13.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 10.6
11-7 12.6% 10.8% 10.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 11.3
10-8 10.8% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 9.9
9-9 8.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.2
8-10 6.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.6
7-11 4.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.7
6-12 3.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.5
5-13 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.9% 15.8% 0.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.8 4.4 5.4 84.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 100.0