Preseason Rankings
Oakland
Horizon
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#245
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.7#66
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#268
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#224
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 7.9% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.4
.500 or above 32.4% 50.7% 23.2%
.500 or above in Conference 55.1% 66.8% 49.3%
Conference Champion 5.9% 9.7% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 2.9% 7.0%
First Four1.4% 1.6% 1.3%
First Round4.2% 7.1% 2.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 33.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.50.0 - 1.5
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.30.1 - 2.8
Quad 20.4 - 2.90.5 - 5.7
Quad 32.4 - 6.02.9 - 11.6
Quad 49.7 - 5.812.6 - 17.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 126   Toledo L 72-80 33%    
  Nov 13, 2018 211   Western Michigan L 73-75 55%    
  Nov 16, 2018 139   @ UNLV L 75-82 19%    
  Nov 23, 2018 176   James Madison L 71-75 47%    
  Nov 24, 2018 283   Oral Roberts W 73-71 66%    
  Nov 25, 2018 186   Northern Illinois L 71-75 47%    
  Dec 01, 2018 44   @ Xavier L 70-85 6%    
  Dec 06, 2018 220   @ Fairfield L 74-75 36%    
  Dec 08, 2018 70   @ Northeastern L 67-79 10%    
  Dec 16, 2018 193   @ Hartford L 71-74 30%    
  Dec 18, 2018 80   @ Georgia L 62-73 12%    
  Dec 21, 2018 10   @ Michigan St. L 63-83 3%    
  Dec 28, 2018 281   @ Cleveland St. W 72-71 45%    
  Dec 30, 2018 329   @ Youngstown St. W 80-74 61%    
  Jan 03, 2019 128   Northern Kentucky L 70-77 35%    
  Jan 05, 2019 138   Wright St. L 67-74 37%    
  Jan 10, 2019 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 69-68 64%    
  Jan 12, 2019 235   Green Bay L 77-78 58%    
  Jan 19, 2019 336   @ Detroit Mercy W 83-76 64%    
  Jan 24, 2019 275   @ IUPUI W 70-69 44%    
  Jan 26, 2019 181   @ Illinois-Chicago L 74-78 29%    
  Jan 31, 2019 329   Youngstown St. W 80-74 79%    
  Feb 02, 2019 281   Cleveland St. W 72-71 65%    
  Feb 07, 2019 138   @ Wright St. L 67-74 21%    
  Feb 09, 2019 128   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-77 19%    
  Feb 14, 2019 235   @ Green Bay L 77-78 39%    
  Feb 16, 2019 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 69-68 42%    
  Feb 23, 2019 336   Detroit Mercy W 83-76 81%    
  Feb 28, 2019 181   Illinois-Chicago L 74-78 48%    
  Mar 02, 2019 275   IUPUI W 70-69 64%    
Projected Record 12.6 - 17.4 9.0 - 9.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.4 4.0 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.3 4.1 1.2 0.2 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.6 4.4 1.0 0.1 14.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.6 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 3.7 1.8 0.3 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.8 6.4 8.8 10.5 11.6 11.9 11.6 9.8 7.8 6.6 3.8 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 93.3% 1.0    0.9 0.2
15-3 75.2% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
14-4 42.9% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.0% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1
12-6 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 97.1% 97.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 52.3% 52.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.1% 38.0% 38.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-3 2.0% 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.5 0.0%
14-4 3.8% 22.2% 22.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.0
13-5 6.6% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 5.8 0.0%
12-6 7.8% 8.9% 8.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 7.1
11-7 9.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.3
10-8 11.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.3
9-9 11.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 11.7
8-10 11.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.5
7-11 10.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
6-12 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.8
5-13 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
4-14 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%