Preseason Rankings
IUPUI
Horizon
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#275
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#278
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#301
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#220
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 8.7% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 27.7% 59.7% 26.4%
.500 or above in Conference 44.7% 64.5% 43.9%
Conference Champion 3.9% 8.7% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 5.2% 9.6%
First Four1.4% 2.2% 1.4%
First Round2.9% 7.3% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.40.0 - 0.4
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.80.0 - 1.3
Quad 20.2 - 2.40.2 - 3.7
Quad 31.9 - 6.52.1 - 10.2
Quad 49.8 - 6.912.0 - 17.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 44   @ Xavier L 64-80 4%    
  Nov 10, 2018 298   Eastern Illinois W 65-63 66%    
  Nov 14, 2018 78   @ Boston College L 64-77 8%    
  Nov 16, 2018 130   @ Richmond L 65-74 15%    
  Nov 23, 2018 318   St. Francis Brooklyn W 70-67 61%    
  Nov 24, 2018 296   Grambling St. W 70-69 55%    
  Nov 28, 2018 117   Bradley L 60-70 29%    
  Dec 01, 2018 111   Ball St. L 65-75 29%    
  Dec 15, 2018 270   Western Illinois L 67-68 60%    
  Dec 18, 2018 169   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-77 22%    
  Dec 21, 2018 224   @ Morehead St. L 67-69 32%    
  Dec 28, 2018 128   @ Northern Kentucky L 64-73 16%    
  Dec 30, 2018 138   @ Wright St. L 62-70 17%    
  Jan 04, 2019 181   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-73 24%    
  Jan 10, 2019 281   Cleveland St. W 67-66 61%    
  Jan 12, 2019 329   Youngstown St. W 74-69 75%    
  Jan 17, 2019 235   @ Green Bay L 71-73 35%    
  Jan 19, 2019 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64-65 39%    
  Jan 24, 2019 245   Oakland L 69-70 56%    
  Jan 26, 2019 336   Detroit Mercy W 77-71 78%    
  Feb 01, 2019 128   Northern Kentucky L 64-73 32%    
  Feb 03, 2019 138   Wright St. L 62-70 33%    
  Feb 09, 2019 181   Illinois-Chicago L 68-73 42%    
  Feb 14, 2019 329   @ Youngstown St. W 74-69 57%    
  Feb 16, 2019 281   @ Cleveland St. W 67-66 42%    
  Feb 22, 2019 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64-65 58%    
  Feb 24, 2019 235   Green Bay L 71-73 53%    
  Feb 28, 2019 336   @ Detroit Mercy W 77-71 60%    
  Mar 02, 2019 245   @ Oakland L 69-70 36%    
Projected Record 12.0 - 17.0 8.1 - 9.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.5 3.2 1.1 0.2 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.1 3.5 1.1 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.3 3.7 0.8 0.1 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 14.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.8 5.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 4.5 4.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.5 2.9 0.9 0.1 9.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.5 10th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.2 8.8 10.1 11.3 12.2 11.2 9.7 8.4 6.3 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 97.5% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 68.1% 1.1    0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.2% 1.1    0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.0% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 91.2% 91.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 40.0% 40.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 31.1% 31.1% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1%
15-3 1.6% 27.8% 27.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.1
14-4 2.6% 19.0% 19.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.1
13-5 4.0% 12.2% 12.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.5
12-6 6.3% 10.1% 10.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 5.7
11-7 8.4% 6.0% 6.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 7.9
10-8 9.7% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.4
9-9 11.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.0
8-10 12.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.0
7-11 11.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
6-12 10.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.1
5-13 8.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.8
4-14 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-15 3.8% 3.8
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.1 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%