Preseason Rankings
Purdue
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#27
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.1#227
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.4%
#1 Seed 5.3% 5.4% 2.2%
Top 2 Seed 12.6% 29.1% 11.6%
Top 4 Seed 28.4% 29.1% 11.6%
Top 6 Seed 44.1% 29.1% 11.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.7% 66.7% 39.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.4% 63.5% 35.8%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 6.6
.500 or above 76.1% 77.3% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 65.7% 66.6% 43.7%
Conference Champion 12.5% 12.7% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.7% 6.6%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 2.6%
First Round64.9% 66.0% 38.0%
Second Round44.4% 45.2% 21.8%
Sweet Sixteen22.6% 23.1% 8.7%
Elite Eight10.7% 11.0% 4.5%
Final Four5.0% 5.1% 2.6%
Championship Game2.2% 2.3% 1.1%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 0.7%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.4 - 5.82.4 - 5.8
Quad 1b2.8 - 2.85.2 - 8.5
Quad 25.1 - 2.410.3 - 11.0
Quad 35.0 - 0.915.3 - 11.9
Quad 43.6 - 0.218.9 - 12.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 220   Fairfield W 81-65 96%    
  Nov 10, 2018 111   Ball St. W 78-69 86%    
  Nov 15, 2018 175   Appalachian St. W 81-68 88%    
  Nov 16, 2018 88   Davidson W 73-66 73%    
  Nov 18, 2018 20   Virginia Tech L 74-75 47%    
  Nov 23, 2018 233   Robert Morris W 78-62 96%    
  Nov 28, 2018 15   @ Florida St. L 76-78 34%    
  Dec 01, 2018 19   @ Michigan L 67-68 35%    
  Dec 06, 2018 32   Maryland W 72-71 64%    
  Dec 09, 2018 26   @ Texas L 68-69 39%    
  Dec 15, 2018 49   Notre Dame W 71-68 58%    
  Dec 20, 2018 142   Ohio W 80-69 88%    
  Dec 29, 2018 109   Belmont W 76-68 84%    
  Jan 03, 2019 34   Iowa W 78-77 65%    
  Jan 08, 2019 10   @ Michigan St. L 71-74 30%    
  Jan 11, 2019 22   @ Wisconsin L 66-67 38%    
  Jan 15, 2019 140   Rutgers W 72-62 86%    
  Jan 19, 2019 25   Indiana L 71-72 59%    
  Jan 23, 2019 40   @ Ohio St. W 72-70 46%    
  Jan 27, 2019 10   Michigan St. L 71-74 50%    
  Jan 31, 2019 57   @ Penn St. W 72-69 51%    
  Feb 03, 2019 68   Minnesota W 77-73 72%    
  Feb 09, 2019 35   Nebraska W 72-71 63%    
  Feb 12, 2019 32   @ Maryland W 72-71 44%    
  Feb 16, 2019 57   Penn St. W 72-69 70%    
  Feb 19, 2019 25   @ Indiana L 71-72 38%    
  Feb 23, 2019 35   @ Nebraska W 72-71 44%    
  Feb 27, 2019 76   Illinois W 78-73 76%    
  Mar 02, 2019 40   Ohio St. W 72-70 64%    
  Mar 05, 2019 68   @ Minnesota W 77-73 55%    
  Mar 09, 2019 62   @ Northwestern W 70-66 52%    
Projected Record 18.9 - 12.1 11.0 - 9.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.3 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 12.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 4.0 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.3 0.8 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.6 1.2 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.1 0.2 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.3 0.7 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.0 5.0 6.3 7.8 9.0 9.6 10.7 10.2 9.7 8.2 6.8 4.8 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 97.8% 0.6    0.6 0.1
18-2 97.2% 1.5    1.4 0.1
17-3 86.9% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
16-4 68.7% 3.3    2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 39.8% 2.7    1.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 12.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 8.1 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-3 3.3% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.8% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 2.3 1.1 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.8% 100.0% 14.8% 85.2% 3.0 0.6 1.8 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.2% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 3.9 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.7% 98.7% 11.8% 86.8% 5.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.2 2.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
12-8 10.2% 95.6% 9.1% 86.5% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 95.2%
11-9 10.7% 87.8% 4.7% 83.1% 7.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 87.2%
10-10 9.6% 68.3% 5.2% 63.1% 8.4 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 66.6%
9-11 9.0% 38.1% 6.0% 32.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.6 34.2%
8-12 7.8% 13.3% 2.8% 10.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 10.8%
7-13 6.3% 4.3% 2.3% 1.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 2.0%
6-14 5.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0%
5-15 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
4-16 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.8
3-17 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.7% 8.8% 56.9% 5.3 5.3 7.3 7.8 8.0 7.3 8.4 6.0 5.3 4.0 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 34.3 62.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.9 17.1