Preseason Rankings
Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#136
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace83.6#7
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#152
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.4% 39.5% 25.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.3
.500 or above 80.9% 84.6% 60.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 95.6% 90.6%
Conference Champion 43.1% 45.2% 31.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four1.9% 1.6% 3.1%
First Round36.6% 38.7% 25.0%
Second Round5.8% 6.4% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 1.80.2 - 1.8
Quad 1b0.4 - 1.50.5 - 3.3
Quad 21.1 - 2.01.6 - 5.3
Quad 33.4 - 2.85.0 - 8.1
Quad 411.7 - 2.216.8 - 10.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 259   Tennessee St. W 76-68 85%    
  Nov 15, 2018 109   Belmont L 79-80 56%    
  Nov 17, 2018 56   @ SMU L 71-78 19%    
  Nov 20, 2018 28   @ TCU L 78-88 13%    
  Nov 25, 2018 224   @ Morehead St. W 83-77 61%    
  Dec 01, 2018 157   @ Middle Tennessee W 77-75 46%    
  Dec 04, 2018 109   @ Belmont L 79-80 35%    
  Dec 09, 2018 260   Navy W 78-70 82%    
  Dec 12, 2018 54   @ Louisville L 78-85 20%    
  Dec 21, 2018 124   Vermont L 75-76 59%    
  Dec 30, 2018 18   @ Clemson L 71-82 11%    
  Jan 05, 2019 289   @ Jacksonville W 84-75 69%    
  Jan 09, 2019 213   North Florida W 94-89 77%    
  Jan 12, 2019 337   Stetson W 89-74 94%    
  Jan 16, 2019 228   @ NJIT W 80-74 61%    
  Jan 21, 2019 338   Kennesaw St. W 86-71 93%    
  Jan 24, 2019 179   Florida Gulf Coast W 85-82 70%    
  Jan 27, 2019 337   @ Stetson W 89-74 82%    
  Jan 29, 2019 155   @ Liberty W 74-72 45%    
  Feb 02, 2019 340   North Alabama W 85-69 94%    
  Feb 06, 2019 213   @ North Florida W 94-89 58%    
  Feb 09, 2019 289   Jacksonville W 84-75 85%    
  Feb 13, 2019 155   Liberty W 74-72 65%    
  Feb 16, 2019 338   @ Kennesaw St. W 86-71 83%    
  Feb 20, 2019 179   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 85-82 51%    
  Feb 25, 2019 228   NJIT W 80-74 78%    
  Mar 01, 2019 340   @ North Alabama W 85-69 85%    
Projected Record 16.8 - 10.2 11.9 - 4.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.7 10.3 12.9 9.6 4.3 43.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.7 9.2 5.9 1.2 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.3 5.4 2.0 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 2.8 0.6 0.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 1.6 0.3 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 2.5 4.3 7.3 10.0 12.8 16.0 16.4 14.1 9.6 4.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 4.3    4.3
15-1 100.0% 9.6    9.2 0.4
14-2 91.3% 12.9    10.3 2.5 0.1
13-3 63.2% 10.3    5.6 4.2 0.6
12-4 29.7% 4.7    1.5 2.4 0.8 0.1
11-5 8.7% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 43.1% 43.1 31.1 9.9 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.3% 82.8% 79.9% 2.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 14.2%
15-1 9.6% 73.3% 71.5% 1.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.6 6.1%
14-2 14.1% 55.3% 54.5% 0.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.0 0.2 6.3 1.8%
13-3 16.4% 46.5% 46.3% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.4 1.9 0.4 8.7 0.5%
12-4 16.0% 34.5% 34.5% 14.3 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.0 0.7 10.5
11-5 12.8% 24.8% 24.8% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.8 9.6
10-6 10.0% 15.8% 15.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 8.4
9-7 7.3% 10.1% 10.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 6.6
8-8 4.3% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.0
7-9 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-10 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-11 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 37.4% 36.9% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.3 8.2 8.7 7.6 3.7 62.6 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 24.1 0.9 48.1 25.9 0.9