Preseason Rankings
UCLA
Pac-12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#50
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.9#52
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#86
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.4% 7.0% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 6.3% 7.0% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 11.8% 7.0% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.4% 45.9% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.6% 38.0% 18.5%
Average Seed 8.3 8.2 9.9
.500 or above 83.7% 86.3% 64.5%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 79.5% 64.6%
Conference Champion 15.8% 16.9% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.5% 3.4%
First Four7.1% 7.2% 6.1%
First Round40.1% 42.5% 21.5%
Second Round22.0% 23.7% 9.5%
Sweet Sixteen9.0% 9.9% 2.5%
Elite Eight3.8% 4.1% 1.2%
Final Four1.4% 1.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Home) - 88.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.8 - 3.30.8 - 3.3
Quad 1b1.4 - 2.32.3 - 5.5
Quad 24.0 - 3.16.3 - 8.6
Quad 37.1 - 2.013.4 - 10.6
Quad 46.5 - 0.519.9 - 11.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 169   Purdue Fort Wayne W 88-78 88%    
  Nov 09, 2018 189   Long Beach St. W 87-76 90%    
  Nov 16, 2018 160   St. Francis (PA) W 84-75 87%    
  Nov 19, 2018 319   Presbyterian W 82-63 98%    
  Nov 22, 2018 10   Michigan St. L 74-80 29%    
  Nov 23, 2018 6   North Carolina L 79-87 24%    
  Nov 28, 2018 201   Hawaii W 80-68 90%    
  Dec 02, 2018 165   Loyola Marymount W 83-73 87%    
  Dec 08, 2018 49   Notre Dame L 74-75 60%    
  Dec 15, 2018 109   Belmont W 80-74 78%    
  Dec 19, 2018 36   @ Cincinnati L 70-71 36%    
  Dec 22, 2018 40   Ohio St. L 75-76 47%    
  Dec 29, 2018 155   Liberty W 76-67 85%    
  Jan 03, 2019 108   Stanford W 81-75 77%    
  Jan 05, 2019 198   California W 82-70 89%    
  Jan 10, 2019 17   @ Oregon L 74-78 28%    
  Jan 13, 2019 82   @ Oregon St. W 76-72 52%    
  Jan 19, 2019 58   @ USC W 78-77 43%    
  Jan 24, 2019 43   Arizona St. L 83-84 58%    
  Jan 26, 2019 66   Arizona W 79-77 65%    
  Jan 30, 2019 191   @ Washington St. W 85-74 76%    
  Feb 02, 2019 42   @ Washington L 78-79 38%    
  Feb 06, 2019 84   Colorado W 78-74 71%    
  Feb 09, 2019 87   Utah W 75-71 72%    
  Feb 13, 2019 198   @ California W 82-70 77%    
  Feb 16, 2019 108   @ Stanford W 81-75 59%    
  Feb 21, 2019 82   Oregon St. W 76-72 71%    
  Feb 23, 2019 17   Oregon L 74-78 47%    
  Feb 28, 2019 58   USC W 78-77 62%    
  Mar 07, 2019 84   @ Colorado W 78-74 53%    
  Mar 09, 2019 87   @ Utah W 75-71 53%    
Projected Record 19.9 - 11.1 10.9 - 7.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 4.7 3.4 2.0 0.5 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.1 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.1 3.9 0.9 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.1 5.7 7.5 10.1 11.1 12.3 11.3 11.1 8.9 6.7 3.7 2.0 0.5 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.1
16-2 91.7% 3.4    2.7 0.6 0.0
15-3 70.9% 4.7    3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 40.6% 3.6    1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 12.3% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 9.9 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.0% 100.0% 43.5% 56.5% 3.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.7% 97.8% 32.0% 65.7% 4.5 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.7%
15-3 6.7% 95.9% 26.6% 69.3% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 94.4%
14-4 8.9% 88.9% 20.4% 68.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.0 86.1%
13-5 11.1% 74.1% 16.3% 57.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.9 69.1%
12-6 11.3% 55.6% 11.3% 44.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.0 49.9%
11-7 12.3% 38.0% 9.8% 28.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.6 31.3%
10-8 11.1% 19.6% 7.5% 12.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.9 13.0%
9-9 10.1% 10.6% 6.2% 4.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.1 4.7%
8-10 7.5% 3.3% 3.2% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.1%
7-11 5.7% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.6 0.0%
6-12 4.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
5-13 2.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 43.4% 12.1% 31.3% 8.3 0.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.7 3.6 3.5 5.6 6.6 7.5 3.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 56.6 35.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 35.3 64.7