Preseason Rankings
Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#85
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#238
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#98
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.9% 39.8% 26.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 6.4% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.9 11.7 13.0
.500 or above 88.6% 92.1% 76.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 94.1% 85.7%
Conference Champion 38.8% 42.3% 26.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four2.1% 2.3% 1.4%
First Round35.8% 38.6% 26.0%
Second Round10.7% 12.3% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 4.0% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 78.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 1.30.2 - 1.3
Quad 1b0.5 - 1.30.6 - 2.6
Quad 22.0 - 2.52.6 - 5.1
Quad 36.8 - 3.69.4 - 8.7
Quad 410.4 - 1.419.8 - 10.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 153   East Tennessee St. W 71-66 78%    
  Nov 09, 2018 73   @ Montana L 71-72 35%    
  Nov 13, 2018 272   Mercer W 74-62 91%    
  Nov 19, 2018 119   St. Bonaventure W 73-70 59%    
  Nov 20, 2018 41   Creighton L 73-77 34%    
  Nov 21, 2018 80   Georgia L 65-66 50%    
  Nov 28, 2018 195   @ Tulane W 76-68 66%    
  Dec 01, 2018 155   @ Liberty W 69-64 58%    
  Dec 04, 2018 39   @ Alabama L 68-73 25%    
  Dec 12, 2018 314   Chattanooga W 74-59 94%    
  Dec 15, 2018 14   @ Kansas St. L 64-73 15%    
  Dec 19, 2018 197   UNC Wilmington W 80-72 83%    
  Jan 03, 2019 256   @ Texas Arlington W 79-68 76%    
  Jan 05, 2019 203   @ Texas St. W 69-61 66%    
  Jan 10, 2019 100   Louisiana W 75-73 65%    
  Jan 12, 2019 210   Louisiana Monroe W 72-63 85%    
  Jan 17, 2019 150   @ South Alabama W 75-70 56%    
  Jan 19, 2019 192   @ Troy W 75-68 66%    
  Jan 24, 2019 203   Texas St. W 69-61 82%    
  Jan 26, 2019 256   Texas Arlington W 79-68 88%    
  Feb 02, 2019 148   Georgia Southern W 75-70 75%    
  Feb 06, 2019 210   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-63 68%    
  Feb 08, 2019 100   @ Louisiana W 75-73 46%    
  Feb 13, 2019 192   Troy W 75-68 81%    
  Feb 15, 2019 150   South Alabama W 75-70 74%    
  Feb 21, 2019 175   @ Appalachian St. W 77-70 61%    
  Feb 23, 2019 221   @ Coastal Carolina W 75-66 70%    
  Feb 28, 2019 286   Arkansas St. W 80-67 90%    
  Mar 02, 2019 264   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-60 88%    
  Mar 09, 2019 148   @ Georgia Southern W 75-70 57%    
Projected Record 19.8 - 10.2 12.9 - 5.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 2.2 6.8 9.7 9.8 7.0 2.8 38.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.5 5.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.2 3.6 1.1 0.1 13.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.2 6.7 9.4 11.6 12.8 13.8 12.5 10.3 7.0 2.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.8    2.8
17-1 100.0% 7.0    6.8 0.2
16-2 95.3% 9.8    8.2 1.6 0.0
15-3 77.6% 9.7    6.8 2.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 49.2% 6.8    3.2 2.8 0.8 0.1
13-5 16.9% 2.2    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.8% 38.8 28.4 8.3 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.8% 94.0% 78.9% 15.2% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 71.7%
17-1 7.0% 81.8% 67.1% 14.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 44.7%
16-2 10.3% 67.9% 57.6% 10.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 3.3 24.4%
15-3 12.5% 52.0% 47.3% 4.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.0 9.0%
14-4 13.8% 40.1% 38.5% 1.5% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.3 2.5%
13-5 12.8% 28.9% 28.7% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 9.1 0.2%
12-6 11.6% 22.1% 22.1% 0.0% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 9.1 0.0%
11-7 9.4% 16.9% 16.9% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.2 7.8
10-8 6.7% 10.8% 10.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 6.0
9-9 5.2% 8.7% 8.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 4.7
8-10 3.4% 8.0% 8.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.1
7-11 2.1% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0
6-12 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.3% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 36.9% 33.5% 3.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9 5.3 8.4 8.0 4.7 2.8 1.2 63.1 5.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 33.3 32.2 17.8 16.7