IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tulane
American Athletic
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.9	#195
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.5	#108
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.7	#187

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.2	#213

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.5%	4.0%	1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.5%	1.9%	0.3%
Average Seed	13.0	12.2	13.3

.500 or above	25.8%	48.3%	22.8%
.500 or above in Conference	18.7%	31.1%	17.0%
Conference Champion	0.5%	1.4%	0.3%
Last Place in Conference	17.2%	8.4%	18.4%

First Four	0.4%	1.0%	0.3%
First Round	1.3%	3.6%	1.0%
Second Round	0.3%	1.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Home) - 11.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 2.2	0.1 - 2.2
Quad 1b	0.4 - 2.9	0.5 - 5.2
Quad 2	1.5 - 5.5	2.0 - 10.7
Quad 3	3.4 - 5.2	5.4 - 15.9
Quad 4	6.3 - 2.4	11.8 - 18.2

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2018	15	Florida St.	L	71-87	12%
Nov 13, 2018	221	Coastal Carolina	W	73-71	66%
Nov 19, 2018	79	South Dakota St.	L	74-82	23%
Nov 20, 2018	90	UC Irvine	L	67-74	27%
Nov 21, 2018	100	Louisiana	L	74-80	29%
Nov 28, 2018	85	Georgia St.	L	68-76	34%
Dec 01, 2018	236	SE Louisiana	W	72-70	69%
Dec 05, 2018	285	Tennessee Martin	W	72-67	76%
Dec 08, 2018	150	@ South Alabama	L	73-76	31%
Dec 17, 2018	243	Texas Southern	W	80-77	69%
Dec 21, 2018	237	Towson	W	72-70	59%
Dec 22, 2018	349	Alabama A&M	W	77-63	89%
Jan 02, 2019	36	@ Cincinnati	L	61-74	9%
Jan 04, 2019	56	SMU	L	64-75	26%
Jan 09, 2019	250	@ South Florida	W	71-68	51%
Jan 13, 2019	101	Memphis	L	70-76	39%
Jan 19, 2019	96	@ Connecticut	L	69-76	20%
Jan 23, 2019	55	Central Florida	L	62-73	25%
Jan 26, 2019	56	@ SMU	L	64-75	13%
Jan 31, 2019	290	@ East Carolina	W	76-71	58%
Feb 02, 2019	72	Temple	L	69-78	31%
Feb 09, 2019	81	@ Wichita St.	L	71-79	18%
Feb 14, 2019	98	Tulsa	L	70-77	40%
Feb 17, 2019	37	Houston	L	67-80	22%
Feb 20, 2019	101	@ Memphis	L	70-76	23%
Feb 23, 2019	290	East Carolina	W	76-71	75%
Feb 28, 2019	98	@ Tulsa	L	70-77	22%
Mar 03, 2019	72	@ Temple	L	69-78	16%
Mar 06, 2019	250	South Florida	W	71-68	70%
Mar 09, 2019	81	Wichita St.	L	71-79	35%
Projected Record						11.8 - 18.2	5.9 - 12.1

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.0	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0				1.1	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.5	0.8	0.3	0.1						1.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	0.8	1.5	0.6	0.0							2.9	4th
5th									0.2	1.1	2.3	1.0	0.1								4.6	5th
6th								0.2	1.3	2.7	1.7	0.2	0.0								6.1	6th
7th							0.2	1.4	3.6	2.4	0.2										7.8	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.4	4.8	3.3	0.6	0.0										11.3	8th
9th				0.0	0.6	3.7	6.2	4.3	0.9	0.0											15.6	9th
10th			0.0	1.7	5.8	7.8	4.0	0.9	0.0												20.2	10th
11th		0.2	2.7	6.1	5.5	2.5	0.3	0.0													17.4	11th
12th	0.9	3.5	3.4	2.1	0.7	0.1															10.6	12th

Total	0.9	3.7	6.1	9.9	12.6	14.3	13.0	11.6	9.2	6.9	5.1	3.2	1.8	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	99.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
15-3	66.7%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
14-4	39.4%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	10.2%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.5%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%											0.0
17-1	0.0%																							0.0
16-2	0.1%		97.5%	2.5%	95.1%	8.1							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		97.5%
15-3	0.2%		51.2%	9.4%	41.9%	9.4								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		46.2%
14-4	0.5%		43.8%	12.0%	31.8%	11.0									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.3		36.2%
13-5	0.9%		16.8%	3.4%	13.4%	11.5									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1					0.7		13.8%
12-6	1.8%		8.0%	3.4%	4.7%	12.2											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			1.7		4.8%
11-7	3.2%		5.1%	4.9%	0.1%	13.1											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		3.1		0.1%
10-8	5.1%		3.1%	3.1%	0.0%	14.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	4.9		0.0%
9-9	6.9%		1.6%	1.6%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.8
8-10	9.2%		1.3%	1.3%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	9.1
7-11	11.6%		1.4%	1.4%		15.4															0.0	0.0	0.1	11.4
6-12	13.0%		0.4%	0.4%		15.9														0.0		0.0	0.0	13.0
5-13	14.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.1	14.2
4-14	12.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.6
3-15	9.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.9
2-16	6.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.1
1-17	3.7%																							3.7
0-18	0.9%																							0.9

Total	100%		1.5%	1.0%	0.5%	13.0						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	98.5		0.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%