Preseason Rankings
Creighton
Big East
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#41
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.2#49
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#55
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.3% 14.1% 2.5%
Top 4 Seed 13.7% 14.1% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 23.9% 14.1% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.0% 50.9% 23.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.6% 46.6% 20.4%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 8.1
.500 or above 68.3% 69.5% 33.6%
.500 or above in Conference 54.2% 55.1% 30.2%
Conference Champion 8.4% 8.7% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 9.7% 25.6%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 2.9%
First Round48.4% 49.4% 22.3%
Second Round29.4% 30.0% 12.1%
Sweet Sixteen13.1% 13.4% 3.8%
Elite Eight5.5% 5.7% 0.5%
Final Four2.3% 2.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 96.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.4 - 4.81.4 - 4.8
Quad 1b2.2 - 3.33.6 - 8.1
Quad 24.7 - 3.58.3 - 11.6
Quad 35.0 - 1.413.2 - 13.1
Quad 43.5 - 0.216.8 - 13.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 270   Western Illinois W 83-67 97%    
  Nov 11, 2018 153   East Tennessee St. W 78-68 87%    
  Nov 15, 2018 40   Ohio St. L 74-75 61%    
  Nov 19, 2018 95   Boise St. W 78-73 68%    
  Nov 20, 2018 85   Georgia St. W 77-73 66%    
  Nov 21, 2018 18   Clemson L 71-74 39%    
  Nov 28, 2018 73   Montana W 78-75 71%    
  Dec 01, 2018 5   Gonzaga L 75-83 33%    
  Dec 08, 2018 35   @ Nebraska L 75-76 37%    
  Dec 14, 2018 235   Green Bay W 87-73 93%    
  Dec 18, 2018 53   @ Oklahoma W 86-85 44%    
  Dec 27, 2018 279   UMKC W 85-69 95%    
  Dec 31, 2018 47   @ Providence W 75-74 42%    
  Jan 05, 2019 33   @ Butler L 76-77 38%    
  Jan 09, 2019 24   Marquette L 80-82 52%    
  Jan 13, 2019 8   Villanova L 75-81 39%    
  Jan 16, 2019 31   @ St. John's L 78-79 36%    
  Jan 21, 2019 69   @ Georgetown W 81-79 48%    
  Jan 25, 2019 33   Butler L 76-77 58%    
  Jan 30, 2019 31   St. John's L 78-79 56%    
  Feb 03, 2019 44   Xavier W 81-80 60%    
  Feb 06, 2019 8   @ Villanova L 75-81 21%    
  Feb 09, 2019 52   @ Seton Hall W 79-78 42%    
  Feb 13, 2019 44   @ Xavier W 81-80 41%    
  Feb 17, 2019 52   Seton Hall W 79-78 62%    
  Feb 20, 2019 89   @ DePaul W 79-74 56%    
  Feb 23, 2019 69   Georgetown W 81-79 67%    
  Mar 03, 2019 24   @ Marquette L 80-82 33%    
  Mar 06, 2019 47   Providence W 75-74 62%    
  Mar 09, 2019 89   DePaul W 79-74 74%    
Projected Record 16.8 - 13.2 8.8 - 9.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 8.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 3.2 3.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.4 3.2 1.0 0.1 11.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 5.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.5 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.8 6.7 8.8 9.6 10.7 11.3 11.2 9.7 7.5 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 94.0% 1.4    1.2 0.2
15-3 82.5% 2.1    1.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 52.0% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 27.5% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 8.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 5.2 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 56.8% 43.2% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.5% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 2.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.5% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 2.5 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 4.1% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 3.4 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.9% 99.4% 17.6% 81.9% 4.6 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
12-6 7.5% 97.1% 9.7% 87.4% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 96.8%
11-7 9.7% 90.2% 9.3% 80.9% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.0 89.2%
10-8 11.2% 76.7% 9.3% 67.4% 8.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 74.3%
9-9 11.3% 57.4% 7.1% 50.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 54.1%
8-10 10.7% 27.8% 4.9% 22.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 24.1%
7-11 9.6% 8.5% 2.7% 5.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 6.0%
6-12 8.8% 4.0% 2.7% 1.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.5 1.4%
5-13 6.7% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.5 0.0%
4-14 4.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.0%
3-15 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.8
2-16 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 50.0% 8.0% 42.0% 6.6 2.0 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.8 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.3 4.5 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 50.0 45.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0