IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Dakota St.
Summit League
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.1	#199
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.2	#248
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.5	#213

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.6	#189

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.4%	11.7%	6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.4	13.8	14.6

.500 or above	43.2%	67.2%	38.1%
.500 or above in Conference	56.5%	70.9%	53.4%
Conference Champion	8.0%	12.5%	7.0%
Last Place in Conference	8.8%	4.1%	9.9%

First Four	1.1%	0.9%	1.1%
First Round	6.8%	11.1%	5.9%
Second Round	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 17.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.9	0.1 - 1.9
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.2	0.2 - 3.1
Quad 2	0.5 - 2.3	0.7 - 5.4
Quad 3	2.7 - 5.0	3.4 - 10.5
Quad 4	9.3 - 4.8	12.7 - 15.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	93	@ New Mexico St.	L	65-72	18%
Nov 11, 2018	177	UC Santa Barbara	L	69-70	56%
Nov 16, 2018	170	Miami (OH)	L	66-68	44%
Nov 17, 2018	330	Incarnate Word	W	76-67	80%
Nov 18, 2018	237	Towson	W	69-67	58%
Nov 24, 2018	153	@ East Tennessee St.	L	65-68	31%
Nov 26, 2018	5	@ Gonzaga	L	63-83	2%
Dec 01, 2018	202	Drake	W	71-70	51%
Dec 03, 2018	30	@ Iowa St.	L	65-79	8%
Dec 08, 2018	174	Eastern Washington	L	68-70	55%
Dec 15, 2018	190	Missouri St.	L	67-68	57%
Dec 17, 2018	73	@ Montana	L	66-75	15%
Dec 29, 2018	134	South Dakota	L	69-74	45%
Dec 30, 2018	169	Purdue Fort Wayne	L	75-77	54%
Jan 02, 2019	253	@ Nebraska Omaha	W	75-72	50%
Jan 10, 2019	270	Western Illinois	W	71-67	72%
Jan 16, 2019	200	@ Denver	W	69-68	40%
Jan 19, 2019	271	North Dakota	W	75-71	71%
Jan 24, 2019	79	@ South Dakota St.	L	71-79	17%
Jan 26, 2019	283	@ Oral Roberts	W	71-67	54%
Feb 02, 2019	270	@ Western Illinois	W	71-67	52%
Feb 06, 2019	271	@ North Dakota	W	75-71	53%
Feb 09, 2019	200	Denver	W	69-68	60%
Feb 14, 2019	283	Oral Roberts	W	71-67	73%
Feb 16, 2019	79	South Dakota St.	L	71-79	32%
Feb 23, 2019	253	Nebraska Omaha	W	75-72	69%
Feb 28, 2019	134	@ South Dakota	L	69-74	27%
Mar 02, 2019	169	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	75-77	35%
Projected Record						12.7 - 15.3	8.0 - 8.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Summit League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	0.9	1.9	2.5	1.7	0.7	0.1		8.0	1st
2nd									0.0	0.7	2.5	4.5	3.6	1.1	0.2				12.6	2nd
3rd								0.0	1.0	4.0	5.8	2.8	0.6	0.0					14.3	3rd
4th							0.0	1.3	4.8	6.2	2.1	0.4							14.8	4th
5th						0.1	1.6	5.4	5.3	1.5	0.1								14.0	5th
6th					0.1	1.4	5.0	4.5	1.1	0.1									12.1	6th
7th				0.2	1.7	4.5	3.7	0.8	0.0										10.9	7th
8th		0.0	0.3	1.8	3.2	2.4	0.4	0.0											8.2	8th
9th	0.1	0.6	1.4	1.7	1.1	0.2	0.0												5.1	9th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.8	3.7	6.1	8.5	10.7	12.1	12.3	12.5	10.7	8.5	6.1	3.7	1.9	0.7	0.1			Total

Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
15-1	100.0%	0.7		0.6	0.0
14-2	90.4%	1.7		1.3	0.4
13-3	67.8%	2.5		1.5	0.9	0.1
12-4	31.4%	1.9		0.7	0.9	0.3	0.0
11-5	10.9%	0.9		0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
10-6	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.2%	0.0						0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	8.0%	8.0		4.3	2.7	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.1%		63.8%	62.1%	1.6%	12.6						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		4.3%
15-1	0.7%		49.6%	47.2%	2.4%	12.8									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3		4.5%
14-2	1.9%		42.2%	39.9%	2.3%	12.9									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0		1.1		3.8%
13-3	3.7%		26.6%	26.6%	0.0%	13.6											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	2.7		0.0%
12-4	6.1%		19.6%	19.6%	0.0%	14.1													0.1	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.1	4.9		0.0%
11-5	8.5%		15.8%	15.8%		14.5												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.2	7.2
10-6	10.7%		8.7%	8.7%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	9.8
9-7	12.5%		6.1%	6.1%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	11.7
8-8	12.3%		4.1%	4.1%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	11.8
7-9	12.1%		2.6%	2.6%		15.8																0.1	0.3	11.8
6-10	10.7%		1.1%	1.1%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.6
5-11	8.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.5
4-12	6.1%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	6.1
3-13	3.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.7
2-14	1.8%																							1.8
1-15	0.6%																							0.6
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.4%	7.3%	0.1%	14.4						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	1.6	2.0	1.8	92.6		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%