Preseason Rankings
Towson
Colonial Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#237
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#198
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#283
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#181
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 1.2% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 13.0 14.8
.500 or above 33.2% 64.6% 33.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.5% 50.3% 31.4%
Conference Champion 1.9% 8.7% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 20.0% 10.7% 20.0%
First Four0.5% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round1.7% 1.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.30.0 - 1.3
Quad 1b0.1 - 0.80.1 - 2.1
Quad 20.5 - 2.60.5 - 4.7
Quad 33.1 - 6.93.6 - 11.6
Quad 48.9 - 5.912.5 - 17.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 2   @ Virginia L 48-71 1%    
  Nov 16, 2018 234   Pepperdine L 71-72 50%    
  Nov 17, 2018 266   Florida Atlantic W 70-68 56%    
  Nov 18, 2018 199   North Dakota St. L 67-69 42%    
  Nov 25, 2018 300   Loyola Maryland W 70-67 71%    
  Nov 30, 2018 124   Vermont L 63-70 35%    
  Dec 05, 2018 208   @ George Washington L 66-67 35%    
  Dec 08, 2018 339   Morgan St. W 74-66 77%    
  Dec 11, 2018 214   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 68-69 37%    
  Dec 21, 2018 195   Tulane L 70-72 41%    
  Dec 22, 2018 166   La Salle L 69-73 37%    
  Dec 28, 2018 231   @ Elon L 69-70 39%    
  Dec 30, 2018 164   @ William & Mary L 73-77 28%    
  Jan 03, 2019 112   College of Charleston L 62-70 34%    
  Jan 05, 2019 197   UNC Wilmington L 74-76 53%    
  Jan 09, 2019 248   Cornell W 73-72 62%    
  Jan 12, 2019 176   @ James Madison L 67-71 29%    
  Jan 17, 2019 280   @ Drexel W 72-70 47%    
  Jan 19, 2019 239   @ Delaware W 68-67 39%    
  Jan 24, 2019 70   Northeastern L 64-76 23%    
  Jan 26, 2019 156   Hofstra L 71-76 44%    
  Jan 31, 2019 197   @ UNC Wilmington L 74-76 34%    
  Feb 02, 2019 112   @ College of Charleston L 62-70 18%    
  Feb 09, 2019 176   James Madison L 67-71 49%    
  Feb 14, 2019 239   Delaware W 68-67 60%    
  Feb 16, 2019 280   Drexel W 72-70 66%    
  Feb 21, 2019 156   @ Hofstra L 71-76 25%    
  Feb 23, 2019 70   @ Northeastern L 64-76 11%    
  Feb 28, 2019 164   William & Mary L 73-77 46%    
  Mar 02, 2019 231   Elon L 69-70 59%    
Projected Record 12.5 - 17.5 7.0 - 11.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.3 2.5 0.2 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 5.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.8 4.3 1.8 0.2 14.2 9th
10th 0.7 2.0 3.4 3.8 2.6 0.9 0.1 13.5 10th
Total 0.7 2.0 3.9 6.7 9.3 10.7 11.8 11.9 11.6 9.5 7.5 6.0 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 94.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 78.8% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 43.1% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 8.1 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 48.4% 46.8% 1.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0%
16-2 0.3% 37.8% 32.6% 5.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7.6%
15-3 0.6% 23.4% 23.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.4% 18.8% 18.7% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.1%
13-5 2.4% 6.4% 6.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.0%
12-6 3.8% 5.8% 5.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
11-7 6.0% 5.6% 5.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.6
10-8 7.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.3
9-9 9.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.3
8-10 11.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.5
7-11 11.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.8
6-12 11.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.8
5-13 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
4-14 9.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.2
3-15 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.7
2-16 3.9% 3.9
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%