IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Miss
Conference USA
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.0	#163
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.0	#311
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.5	#123

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.5	#230

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.6%	10.2%	4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	3.8%	0.6%
Average Seed	18.0	11.8	13.1

.500 or above	46.5%	73.1%	42.6%
.500 or above in Conference	72.4%	81.2%	71.1%
Conference Champion	4.3%	8.0%	3.8%
Last Place in Conference	4.4%	1.7%	4.8%

First Four	0.8%	2.3%	0.6%
First Round	4.6%	8.7%	4.0%
Second Round	0.8%	2.1%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.8%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 12.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 1.2	0.0 - 1.2
Quad 1b	0.2 - 1.5	0.2 - 2.7
Quad 2	0.9 - 3.4	1.1 - 6.1
Quad 3	4.3 - 5.3	5.4 - 11.4
Quad 4	6.7 - 2.5	12.1 - 13.9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2018	56	@ SMU	L	62-71	13%
Nov 15, 2018	192	@ Troy	W	72-70	45%
Nov 20, 2018	213	North Florida	W	82-79	61%
Nov 21, 2018	307	Western Carolina	W	74-66	78%
Nov 28, 2018	150	South Alabama	L	71-72	58%
Dec 15, 2018	81	@ Wichita St.	L	69-75	21%
Dec 19, 2018	14	@ Kansas St.	L	60-75	6%
Dec 21, 2018	134	@ South Dakota	L	71-73	33%
Dec 29, 2018	141	@ Louisiana Tech	L	69-71	35%
Jan 03, 2019	323	@ Rice	W	74-64	72%
Jan 05, 2019	132	@ North Texas	L	68-71	32%
Jan 10, 2019	157	Middle Tennessee	L	67-68	58%
Jan 12, 2019	187	UAB	W	70-69	64%
Jan 17, 2019	301	@ Charlotte	W	78-70	65%
Jan 19, 2019	102	@ Old Dominion	L	63-67	28%
Jan 24, 2019	60	Western Kentucky	L	69-78	32%
Jan 26, 2019	99	Marshall	L	76-81	45%
Jan 31, 2019	226	@ Florida International	W	72-68	53%
Feb 02, 2019	266	@ Florida Atlantic	W	73-67	59%
Feb 09, 2019	141	Louisiana Tech	L	69-71	54%
Feb 14, 2019	158	Texas San Antonio	L	74-75	59%
Feb 16, 2019	249	UTEP	W	71-66	74%
Feb 23, 2019	187	UAB	W	70-69	63%
Mar 03, 2019	60	@ Western Kentucky	L	69-78	16%
Mar 06, 2019	102	@ Old Dominion	L	63-67	27%
Mar 09, 2019	158	Texas San Antonio	L	74-75	58%
Projected Record						12.1 - 13.9	9.0 - 9.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.1		1.4	1st
2nd												0.1	1.0	2.4	2.3		5.8	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	3.3	2.7	0.7		7.7	3rd
4th										0.0	0.9	3.1	3.2	0.8	0.0		8.0	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	3.4	3.9	1.3	0.1			9.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	3.1	4.2	1.8	0.1				9.5	6th
7th								0.2	1.9	4.5	2.1	0.2	0.0				8.9	7th
8th							0.1	1.5	4.2	2.8	0.3						9.0	8th
9th						0.1	1.1	3.9	3.2	0.7	0.0						9.0	9th
10th					0.0	0.8	3.4	3.4	0.6	0.0							8.3	10th
11th				0.0	0.5	2.5	2.9	1.0	0.1								7.0	11th
12th			0.1	0.6	2.0	2.2	0.9	0.1									5.8	12th
13th		0.1	0.5	1.5	1.6	0.7	0.1										4.3	13th
14th	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0										2.1	14th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.2	2.8	4.3	6.2	8.6	10.1	10.3	11.6	11.1	9.9	8.9	6.4	4.1			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
14-0	26.2%	1.1		0.2	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0
13-1	5.3%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-2	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
11-3	0.0%
10-4	0.0%
9-5	0.0%
8-6	0.0%
7-7	0.0%

Total	1.4%	1.4		0.3	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
14-0	4.1%		17.9%	14.1%	3.8%	12.1										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		3.4		4.4%
13-1	6.4%		10.4%	8.7%	1.8%	13.0												0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	5.7		1.9%
12-2	8.9%		8.0%	8.0%	0.0%	13.5											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	8.2		0.0%
11-3	9.9%		5.0%	5.0%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	9.4
10-4	11.1%		3.7%	3.7%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	10.7
9-5	11.6%		1.8%	1.8%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	11.4
8-6	10.3%		1.2%	1.2%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	10.2
7-7	10.1%		1.7%	1.7%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	9.9
6-8	8.6%		1.1%	1.1%		15.9																0.0	0.1	8.5
5-9	6.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
4-10	4.3%																							4.3
3-11	2.8%																							2.8
2-12	1.2%																							1.2
1-13	0.5%																							0.5
0-14	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		3.6%	3.4%	0.3%	13.7										0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.6	96.4		0.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%