Preseason Rankings
SMU
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#56
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.2#340
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 4.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.9% 4.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.9% 4.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.2% 38.8% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.6% 29.0% 4.2%
Average Seed 8.6 8.6 11.6
.500 or above 94.2% 94.5% 73.2%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 81.1% 58.2%
Conference Champion 16.7% 16.9% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 3.4%
First Four6.1% 6.2% 2.5%
First Round35.2% 35.7% 6.8%
Second Round18.2% 18.4% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 7.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight2.7% 2.7% 0.1%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.8 - 2.50.8 - 2.5
Quad 1b1.4 - 2.02.3 - 4.5
Quad 23.6 - 2.55.9 - 6.9
Quad 35.8 - 1.611.7 - 8.5
Quad 49.2 - 0.620.9 - 9.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2018 328   Northwestern St. W 76-56 98%    
  Nov 11, 2018 163   Southern Miss W 71-62 87%    
  Nov 14, 2018 307   Western Carolina W 76-59 97%    
  Nov 17, 2018 136   Lipscomb W 78-71 81%    
  Nov 20, 2018 117   Bradley W 67-62 69%    
  Nov 21, 2018 138   Wright St. W 69-62 72%    
  Nov 27, 2018 227   Lamar W 73-60 92%    
  Nov 29, 2018 304   McNeese St. W 78-61 97%    
  Dec 02, 2018 283   Oral Roberts W 74-59 94%    
  Dec 05, 2018 28   TCU L 69-72 51%    
  Dec 15, 2018 69   @ Georgetown W 71-70 44%    
  Dec 22, 2018 248   Cornell W 77-63 93%    
  Jan 02, 2019 290   East Carolina W 76-60 94%    
  Jan 04, 2019 195   @ Tulane W 75-64 74%    
  Jan 10, 2019 96   @ Connecticut W 69-65 53%    
  Jan 12, 2019 98   Tulsa W 70-66 73%    
  Jan 16, 2019 37   Houston L 67-69 54%    
  Jan 19, 2019 101   @ Memphis W 70-65 56%    
  Jan 26, 2019 195   Tulane W 75-64 87%    
  Jan 30, 2019 81   @ Wichita St. W 71-68 49%    
  Feb 02, 2019 36   @ Cincinnati L 61-63 33%    
  Feb 07, 2019 250   South Florida W 71-57 92%    
  Feb 10, 2019 55   Central Florida L 62-63 60%    
  Feb 13, 2019 72   @ Temple W 69-67 46%    
  Feb 21, 2019 96   Connecticut W 69-65 71%    
  Feb 24, 2019 55   @ Central Florida L 62-63 40%    
  Feb 27, 2019 36   Cincinnati L 61-63 54%    
  Mar 03, 2019 81   Wichita St. W 71-68 68%    
  Mar 07, 2019 37   @ Houston L 67-69 34%    
  Mar 10, 2019 250   @ South Florida W 71-57 82%    
Projected Record 20.9 - 9.1 11.2 - 6.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 3.8 4.8 4.2 1.9 0.6 16.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.6 4.9 1.9 0.2 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.8 4.2 0.9 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.8 3.6 0.7 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.7 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.3 3.3 0.9 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.1 7.7 9.5 11.4 12.1 12.8 11.5 9.6 6.9 4.5 1.9 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.1
16-2 94.5% 4.2    3.5 0.7 0.0
15-3 70.1% 4.8    2.7 1.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.7% 3.8    1.5 1.6 0.7 0.0
13-5 10.1% 1.2    0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 10.3 4.9 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 63.7% 36.3% 2.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 99.3% 46.0% 53.3% 3.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
16-2 4.5% 99.0% 38.2% 60.8% 5.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3%
15-3 6.9% 94.4% 27.0% 67.4% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 92.3%
14-4 9.6% 82.7% 24.0% 58.8% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.7 77.3%
13-5 11.5% 64.1% 17.5% 46.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.1 56.5%
12-6 12.8% 38.3% 12.0% 26.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.9 29.9%
11-7 12.1% 19.3% 8.5% 10.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.7 11.8%
10-8 11.4% 10.5% 7.6% 2.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.2 3.1%
9-9 9.5% 5.2% 4.4% 0.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.8%
8-10 7.7% 4.1% 3.9% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.2%
7-11 5.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0
6-12 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
5-13 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 38.2% 13.5% 24.7% 8.6 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.8 5.7 7.0 3.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 61.8 28.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 45.5 35.0 19.5