Preseason Rankings
Marshall
Conference USA
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#99
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace84.8#5
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#82
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 21.2% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 5.0% 1.0%
Average Seed 24.2 11.7 13.2
.500 or above 83.2% 88.1% 67.1%
.500 or above in Conference 78.3% 76.9% 82.8%
Conference Champion 17.3% 19.7% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four2.1% 2.4% 0.9%
First Round18.0% 20.1% 11.0%
Second Round5.1% 6.0% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 1.90.2 - 1.9
Quad 1b0.4 - 1.40.6 - 3.3
Quad 22.0 - 3.02.6 - 6.4
Quad 36.3 - 3.68.9 - 9.9
Quad 410.7 - 1.419.6 - 11.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 273   @ Eastern Kentucky W 87-76 77%    
  Nov 11, 2018 156   Hofstra W 87-83 75%    
  Nov 14, 2018 331   Mount St. Mary's W 83-67 96%    
  Nov 19, 2018 347   N.C. A&T W 91-72 98%    
  Nov 23, 2018 32   @ Maryland L 76-83 20%    
  Nov 28, 2018 164   William & Mary W 90-85 75%    
  Dec 01, 2018 142   @ Ohio W 85-82 50%    
  Dec 05, 2018 182   @ Duquesne W 82-76 59%    
  Dec 08, 2018 126   Toledo W 85-83 66%    
  Dec 10, 2018 224   Morehead St. W 85-77 85%    
  Dec 15, 2018 184   @ Akron W 83-77 58%    
  Dec 22, 2018 64   @ Texas A&M L 79-83 29%    
  Dec 31, 2018 2   @ Virginia L 61-75 7%    
  Jan 03, 2019 102   @ Old Dominion W 74-73 42%    
  Jan 05, 2019 301   @ Charlotte W 91-79 79%    
  Jan 12, 2019 60   Western Kentucky L 82-86 46%    
  Jan 17, 2019 266   Florida Atlantic W 85-75 87%    
  Jan 19, 2019 226   Florida International W 85-77 82%    
  Jan 21, 2019 60   @ Western Kentucky L 82-86 27%    
  Jan 24, 2019 141   @ Louisiana Tech W 81-78 51%    
  Jan 26, 2019 163   @ Southern Miss W 81-76 55%    
  Jan 31, 2019 249   UTEP W 83-73 84%    
  Feb 02, 2019 158   Texas San Antonio W 88-84 72%    
  Feb 07, 2019 132   @ North Texas W 80-78 47%    
  Feb 09, 2019 323   @ Rice W 86-72 83%    
  Feb 14, 2019 187   UAB W 82-76 76%    
  Feb 16, 2019 157   Middle Tennessee W 78-74 72%    
  Feb 28, 2019 141   @ Louisiana Tech W 81-78 49%    
  Mar 03, 2019 132   @ North Texas W 80-78 47%    
  Mar 06, 2019 226   Florida International W 85-77 83%    
  Mar 09, 2019 266   Florida Atlantic W 85-75 86%    
Projected Record 19.6 - 11.4 11.7 - 6.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 4.8 6.1 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.6 5.8 1.9 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.2 4.8 1.7 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.6 1.9 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 4.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.1 0.2 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.9 8.4 10.6 12.5 13.3 13.3 11.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 27.2% 3.0    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
13-1 6.4% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-2 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.0%
10-4 0.0%
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 11.0% 26.7% 22.9% 3.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.1 4.9%
13-1 13.3% 17.7% 17.0% 0.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 10.9 0.8%
12-2 13.3% 11.7% 11.4% 0.3% 13.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 11.7 0.4%
11-3 12.5% 8.0% 7.9% 0.1% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 11.5 0.1%
10-4 10.6% 6.7% 6.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 9.9
9-5 8.4% 5.5% 5.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.9
8-6 5.9% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.7
7-7 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.3
6-8 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.1
5-9 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-10 0.6% 0.6
3-11 0.4% 0.4
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.1% 0.1
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.3% 8.8% 0.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.8 90.7 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.6 3.6 32.1 64.3