Preseason Rankings
Oklahoma
Big 12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#53
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace86.7#3
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.1% 12.9% 2.9%
Top 4 Seed 12.0% 12.9% 2.9%
Top 6 Seed 23.1% 12.9% 2.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.5% 41.6% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.7% 38.7% 16.0%
Average Seed 6.0 6.0 7.1
.500 or above 46.4% 48.8% 21.3%
.500 or above in Conference 32.7% 33.9% 19.2%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 21.2% 20.0% 33.5%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 0.9%
First Round39.0% 41.0% 17.5%
Second Round23.6% 25.0% 9.4%
Sweet Sixteen10.8% 11.5% 3.6%
Elite Eight4.6% 4.9% 1.1%
Final Four1.9% 2.0% 0.2%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 91.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.6 - 6.51.6 - 6.5
Quad 1b2.3 - 3.73.9 - 10.3
Quad 25.0 - 3.98.9 - 14.2
Quad 34.8 - 1.613.7 - 15.7
Quad 41.4 - 0.115.1 - 15.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 311   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 97-79 91%    
  Nov 12, 2018 158   @ Texas San Antonio W 90-81 70%    
  Nov 18, 2018 97   Wofford W 82-78 76%    
  Nov 21, 2018 16   Florida L 77-82 34%    
  Nov 22, 2018 22   Wisconsin L 72-76 36%    
  Nov 23, 2018 107   Dayton W 82-77 69%    
  Nov 27, 2018 132   North Texas W 83-76 80%    
  Dec 04, 2018 49   Notre Dame L 78-79 48%    
  Dec 08, 2018 81   Wichita St. W 84-81 70%    
  Dec 15, 2018 58   USC W 82-81 60%    
  Dec 18, 2018 41   Creighton L 85-86 56%    
  Dec 21, 2018 62   @ Northwestern W 77-76 41%    
  Jan 02, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 78-89 12%    
  Jan 05, 2019 74   Oklahoma St. W 83-81 66%    
  Jan 08, 2019 29   @ Texas Tech L 76-79 32%    
  Jan 12, 2019 28   TCU L 83-86 51%    
  Jan 16, 2019 14   Kansas St. L 74-79 42%    
  Jan 19, 2019 26   @ Texas L 75-78 30%    
  Jan 23, 2019 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 83-81 47%    
  Jan 26, 2019 83   Vanderbilt W 81-78 70%    
  Jan 28, 2019 48   Baylor L 78-79 58%    
  Feb 02, 2019 11   @ West Virginia L 79-85 23%    
  Feb 04, 2019 30   Iowa St. L 83-85 52%    
  Feb 09, 2019 29   Texas Tech L 76-79 52%    
  Feb 11, 2019 48   @ Baylor L 78-79 38%    
  Feb 16, 2019 28   @ TCU L 83-86 32%    
  Feb 23, 2019 26   Texas L 75-78 50%    
  Feb 25, 2019 30   @ Iowa St. L 83-85 33%    
  Mar 02, 2019 11   West Virginia L 79-85 41%    
  Mar 05, 2019 1   Kansas L 78-89 27%    
  Mar 09, 2019 14   @ Kansas St. L 74-79 25%    
Projected Record 15.1 - 15.9 7.1 - 10.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.6 5.5 2.8 0.2 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.2 5.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.3 4.5 2.2 0.3 15.4 9th
10th 0.7 1.7 3.9 4.0 2.9 0.9 0.1 14.2 10th
Total 0.7 1.7 4.5 6.7 9.6 10.5 11.5 11.3 10.9 9.5 7.5 5.6 4.4 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 95.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 79.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 49.7% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 26.0% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 65.1% 34.9% 1.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.6% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.8% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 3.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.4% 99.9% 13.4% 86.5% 4.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 5.6% 97.7% 8.2% 89.5% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.5%
10-8 7.5% 91.5% 5.7% 85.8% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 91.0%
9-9 9.5% 77.2% 5.2% 72.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 76.0%
8-10 10.9% 52.5% 3.8% 48.7% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 50.6%
7-11 11.3% 24.1% 2.8% 21.3% 8.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 21.9%
6-12 11.5% 7.7% 2.2% 5.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 5.6%
5-13 10.5% 2.5% 1.9% 0.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.2 0.6%
4-14 9.6% 1.1% 1.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
3-15 6.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.7
2-16 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
1-17 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 39.5% 4.4% 35.1% 6.0 1.7 2.4 3.7 4.3 5.4 5.7 4.7 4.1 3.2 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 60.5 36.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 7.1 92.9
Lose Out 0.0%