Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Duke 100.0%   1   16 - 3 6 - 2 26 - 5 16 - 4 +20.5      +10.6 4 +9.9 5 76.7 30 +17.2 11 +13.7 3
7 Louisville 99.9%   2   17 - 3 8 - 1 25 - 6 16 - 4 +16.3      +8.1 13 +8.2 16 66.1 262 +17.6 9 +22.6 1
18 Florida St. 99.8%   4   17 - 2 7 - 1 25 - 6 15 - 5 +13.9      +5.7 41 +8.2 17 71.5 114 +20.1 4 +20.1 2
45 North Carolina St. 59.6%   11   14 - 6 5 - 4 20 - 11 11 - 9 +10.4      +7.3 21 +3.1 89 71.3 120 +10.2 44 +9.0 7
47 Virginia 55.0%   10   13 - 6 5 - 4 19 - 11 11 - 9 +10.2      -1.1 211 +11.4 1 53.9 353 +9.6 53 +9.7 6
48 Syracuse 44.2%   13 - 7 6 - 3 19 - 12 12 - 8 +10.1      +6.8 29 +3.3 85 66.3 258 +8.8 66 +11.8 4
53 Notre Dame 11.5%   11 - 8 2 - 6 18 - 13 9 - 11 +9.5      +6.6 31 +2.9 94 69.3 180 +6.0 89 +3.9 13
59 North Carolina 6.4%   9 - 10 2 - 6 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8.4      +4.3 61 +4.1 73 76.5 34 +5.3 98 +0.6 14
67 Virginia Tech 33.4%   14 - 6 5 - 4 19 - 12 10 - 10 +7.9      +3.4 80 +4.5 68 62.0 334 +11.2 38 +10.8 5
72 Georgia Tech 5.4%   9 - 11 4 - 6 14 - 16 9 - 11 +7.3      +0.4 168 +6.9 28 70.2 147 +6.4 83 +8.4 9
73 Pittsburgh 16.0%   13 - 7 4 - 5 18 - 13 9 - 11 +7.2      +2.6 107 +4.7 67 62.5 330 +8.7 67 +7.7 10
74 Clemson 11.0%   10 - 9 4 - 5 15 - 15 9 - 11 +7.2      +0.9 152 +6.2 35 65.8 271 +6.6 80 +9.0 8
98 Miami (FL) 3.8%   10 - 9 2 - 7 14 - 16 6 - 14 +5.1      +5.7 40 -0.6 181 68.1 216 +9.1 61 +5.9 12
100 Wake Forest 0.4%   9 - 10 2 - 7 12 - 18 5 - 15 +4.9      +3.9 71 +1.0 137 72.1 99 +4.4 108 +0.4 15
144 Boston College 0.0%   10 - 10 4 - 5 12 - 19 6 - 14 +1.4      -1.7 222 +3.1 91 71.5 113 +3.9 112 +7.6 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 1.6 54.3 33.2 10.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 1.7 52.3 31.4 13.8 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 2.6 19.9 24.4 42.5 8.4 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 6.0 0.2 1.2 5.9 20.3 19.9 17.0 12.7 9.2 5.9 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Virginia 6.2 0.2 1.2 5.8 18.7 19.7 16.1 12.8 9.7 6.8 4.6 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Syracuse 4.8 1.0 3.6 13.8 35.6 18.4 11.5 7.0 4.5 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.6 9.0 11.4 12.9 13.2 12.2 11.1 8.3 6.3 4.6 2.9 1.7
North Carolina 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.7 7.8 10.8 14.3 15.8 15.0 12.8 9.6
Virginia Tech 6.6 0.1 0.5 3.6 14.4 18.0 16.5 14.5 11.7 8.5 5.9 3.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
Georgia Tech 8.7 0.0 0.5 4.6 7.7 10.0 11.6 13.4 13.1 12.4 10.7 8.0 5.1 2.2 0.7
Pittsburgh 8.9 0.0 0.6 4.3 6.8 8.8 11.0 12.7 13.1 13.2 11.8 8.6 5.6 2.8 0.8
Clemson 8.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.9 8.2 10.3 11.6 12.3 12.3 12.1 10.2 7.5 4.6 2.6 1.0
Miami (FL) 11.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.7 6.6 9.0 12.0 14.5 16.4 16.3 14.0
Wake Forest 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.5 8.4 11.4 14.9 20.4 32.0
Boston College 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.1 8.1 11.9 16.3 20.3 21.1 10.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 7.0 15.6 26.1 30.1 17.9
Louisville 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 8.8 17.2 24.0 24.3 15.7 5.0
Florida St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 7.1 13.4 19.9 22.1 18.7 10.8 3.7 0.5
North Carolina St. 11 - 9 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.9 14.6 21.2 21.8 17.3 9.4 3.4 0.9 0.1
Virginia 11 - 9 0.1 0.7 3.1 8.4 16.0 21.3 20.8 16.2 9.0 3.5 0.8 0.1
Syracuse 12 - 8 0.0 0.6 2.5 7.0 13.9 20.2 22.5 18.0 10.2 4.1 0.9 0.1
Notre Dame 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 6.8 12.7 18.2 21.4 18.4 11.9 5.4 1.3 0.1
North Carolina 7 - 13 0.3 1.9 6.6 14.7 20.9 22.0 17.1 10.4 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.1
Virginia Tech 10 - 10 0.1 1.0 4.2 11.1 18.9 22.5 20.9 13.3 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.0
Georgia Tech 9 - 11 0.3 2.4 7.5 15.1 21.1 21.9 17.0 9.5 4.0 1.0 0.1
Pittsburgh 9 - 11 0.5 3.0 8.6 16.6 21.7 21.7 15.6 8.4 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
Clemson 9 - 11 0.5 2.6 7.7 14.5 19.7 20.3 16.8 10.5 5.1 1.8 0.4 0.0
Miami (FL) 6 - 14 0.6 3.6 9.9 17.2 21.4 20.3 14.6 8.1 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 5 - 15 2.4 8.7 17.6 23.7 20.8 15.1 7.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
Boston College 6 - 14 9.2 22.4 27.2 20.7 12.8 5.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 54.3% 32.9 18.6 2.6 0.1 0.0
Louisville 52.3% 32.0 17.7 2.6 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 19.9% 9.7 7.6 2.5 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0
North Carolina
Virginia Tech 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Clemson 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL)
Wake Forest
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 51.6% 48.4% 1   52.6 29.7 10.7 4.8 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 99.9% 21.9% 78.1% 2   20.8 26.0 20.5 16.2 8.4 4.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Florida St. 99.8% 12.4% 87.4% 4   8.3 16.0 21.2 20.3 14.9 9.8 5.2 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.7%
North Carolina St. 59.6% 2.9% 56.7% 11   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.9 5.7 9.5 12.1 12.9 12.5 1.6 40.4 58.4%
Virginia 55.0% 2.8% 52.2% 10   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 5.2 8.9 11.3 11.9 11.3 1.5 0.0 45.0 53.7%
Syracuse 44.2% 3.2% 41.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.6 7.4 8.8 10.2 10.2 1.3 55.8 42.4%
Notre Dame 11.5% 1.6% 9.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.3 5.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.5 10.1%
North Carolina 6.4% 0.6% 5.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.6 5.8%
Virginia Tech 33.4% 1.1% 32.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.3 5.6 7.9 12.5 1.9 66.6 32.7%
Georgia Tech 5.4% 0.7% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.7 4.7%
Pittsburgh 16.0% 0.6% 15.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.0 6.4 1.3 0.0 84.0 15.5%
Clemson 11.0% 0.6% 10.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.7 4.0 0.7 0.0 89.0 10.5%
Miami (FL) 3.8% 0.1% 3.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 96.2 3.7%
Wake Forest 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.3%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.5% 77.8% 56.9% 38.7% 25.2% 15.7%
Louisville 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 89.4% 58.5% 32.5% 16.5% 8.0% 3.7%
Florida St. 99.8% 0.1% 99.7% 79.4% 43.9% 19.9% 8.6% 3.5% 1.3%
North Carolina St. 59.6% 10.3% 54.4% 26.3% 8.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Virginia 55.0% 9.3% 50.3% 23.7% 7.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Syracuse 44.2% 8.1% 40.1% 18.8% 5.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Notre Dame 11.5% 4.8% 9.2% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
North Carolina 6.4% 2.2% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 33.4% 11.2% 27.0% 10.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 5.4% 2.1% 4.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 16.0% 6.0% 12.5% 4.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Clemson 11.0% 3.6% 9.0% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 3.8% 1.9% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.5 1.8 15.0 35.3 33.0 12.9 1.9 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 3.6 22.3 38.9 27.0 7.5 0.7 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 3.6 0.0 0.6 9.4 36.5 36.7 14.3 2.3 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 96.9% 2.1 3.1 22.1 43.3 26.6 4.6 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 81.2% 1.2 18.8 47.8 28.4 4.8 0.2 0.0
Final Four 57.0% 0.7 43.0 47.0 9.6 0.4 0.0
Final Game 35.8% 0.4 64.2 33.8 2.0
Champion 21.1% 0.2 78.9 21.1