Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Duke 99.5%   1   4 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 5 16 - 4 +20.2      +8.8 7 +11.4 2 80.3 22 +25.1 2 0.0 1
4 Louisville 98.5%   1   3 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 15 - 4 +19.6      +11.3 2 +8.3 9 68.1 225 +19.4 11 0.0 1
7 Virginia 96.1%   2   2 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 6 13 - 6 +17.9      +4.7 63 +13.2 1 54.5 353 +20.9 8 0.0 1
8 North Carolina 95.0%   2   3 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 6 +17.9      +9.9 5 +8.0 16 85.4 7 +16.3 22 0.0 1
23 Florida St. 72.2%   6   2 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 9 +12.9      +5.4 45 +7.5 21 71.4 136 +12.6 42 0.0 1
40 North Carolina St. 49.5%   9   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 10 +11.0      +7.7 17 +3.3 80 77.4 42 +2.7 139 0.0 1
41 Notre Dame 49.2%   10   3 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 9 +11.0      +4.8 58 +6.2 42 65.4 292 +8.8 69 0.0 1
54 Miami (FL) 32.9%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 11 +9.0      +6.5 28 +2.4 101 67.7 238 +11.7 46 0.0 1
57 Syracuse 32.1%   1 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 11 +8.6      +1.3 136 +7.3 23 65.4 293 +6.6 93 0.0 1
62 Georgia Tech 35.1%   2 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 11 +8.1      +2.1 108 +6.0 45 67.3 251 +23.2 3 0.0 1
66 Virginia Tech 28.0%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 11 +7.9      +2.6 97 +5.3 54 62.1 336 +16.6 20 0.0 1
79 Clemson 14.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 12 +6.7      +0.3 166 +6.4 38 70.1 171 +2.0 149 0.0 1
80 Boston College 21.8%   3 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 6 - 13 +6.6      +1.5 129 +5.2 56 72.7 103 +14.5 29 0.0 1
99 Pittsburgh 6.8%   2 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 13 +4.9      +1.8 123 +3.2 82 63.5 322 +1.9 151 0.0 1
102 Wake Forest 7.2%   2 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 17 5 - 14 +4.6      +3.0 91 +1.6 122 74.9 72 +4.2 121 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 2.1 51.2 21.6 12.1 6.7 3.7 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville 2.8 28.6 26.4 18.0 11.1 6.6 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 3.7 18.0 19.9 17.6 14.1 10.1 6.8 4.8 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1
North Carolina 3.8 15.5 18.3 18.9 15.6 11.1 7.5 4.8 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1
Florida St. 6.4 3.3 6.3 9.3 11.8 12.8 12.1 10.5 8.8 7.3 5.8 4.4 3.3 2.2 1.4 0.7
North Carolina St. 7.6 1.6 3.5 5.8 8.4 10.1 11.1 10.9 10.2 9.1 8.0 6.7 5.5 4.1 3.1 1.8
Notre Dame 6.9 2.0 4.6 7.8 10.8 12.3 12.1 11.1 9.7 8.0 6.6 5.1 4.0 2.9 1.9 1.1
Miami (FL) 8.9 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.1 7.0 8.8 9.7 9.9 10.2 9.9 9.1 8.2 7.3 5.6 3.9
Syracuse 8.6 0.9 2.0 4.1 6.3 8.0 9.0 9.7 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.2 7.5 6.5 5.4 3.9
Georgia Tech 9.1 0.7 1.7 3.1 4.9 6.7 8.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.5 8.9 8.5 7.6 6.6 5.4
Virginia Tech 9.5 0.4 1.1 2.4 3.8 5.6 7.1 8.5 9.3 10.0 10.2 9.9 9.4 9.0 7.6 5.8
Clemson 10.4 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.8 5.2 6.7 8.0 9.1 9.8 10.5 11.0 11.1 10.4 9.5
Boston College 10.7 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.3 4.7 6.0 7.5 8.5 9.8 10.8 11.4 12.1 11.8 10.4
Pittsburgh 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.1 5.4 7.0 8.7 10.7 12.4 14.0 15.5 15.8
Wake Forest 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.8 5.1 6.5 8.2 10.0 11.9 13.6 16.1 18.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.8 7.3 10.6 13.5 16.0 16.5 13.7 8.8 3.3
Louisville 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 5.2 8.0 11.3 14.4 16.4 15.9 12.5 7.6 2.5
Virginia 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.2 6.3 8.7 10.9 13.0 13.9 13.3 11.2 7.8 4.1 1.2
North Carolina 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.5 9.5 12.3 13.9 14.7 13.5 10.4 6.5 2.8 0.7
Florida St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.6 6.9 9.2 11.0 12.8 12.8 12.0 9.8 7.2 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
North Carolina St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.2 7.4 9.9 11.6 12.5 12.4 11.2 9.0 6.7 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.5 7.9 10.3 12.1 13.0 12.6 11.1 8.5 6.0 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Miami (FL) 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.3 5.8 8.4 10.8 12.1 13.0 12.1 10.4 8.4 6.0 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.2 7.6 9.7 11.4 12.2 11.7 10.7 8.9 6.8 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.3 6.4 8.7 10.7 12.1 12.0 11.4 10.1 7.7 5.8 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.8 7.5 10.1 11.8 12.9 12.6 11.1 9.1 6.6 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Clemson 7 - 13 0.5 1.8 4.3 7.0 10.0 12.1 13.2 12.8 11.4 9.4 6.8 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 6 - 14 0.5 2.1 4.7 8.2 11.0 12.9 13.3 12.8 11.1 8.6 6.2 4.1 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 6 - 14 0.8 3.3 7.3 10.8 14.0 14.7 14.0 11.8 8.9 6.1 4.0 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 5 - 15 1.2 4.2 8.0 12.0 13.8 14.1 13.2 11.2 8.3 5.9 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 51.2% 38.1 10.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Louisville 28.6% 18.2 8.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia 18.0% 10.7 5.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 15.5% 8.9 4.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 3.3% 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 0.9% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Clemson 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 99.5% 28.1% 71.4% 1   41.9 26.0 13.9 7.8 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.3%
Louisville 98.5% 24.3% 74.2% 1   32.1 23.7 15.3 10.3 6.4 4.2 2.5 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 98.0%
Virginia 96.1% 17.1% 78.9% 2   23.8 20.2 15.0 11.4 8.1 6.0 3.9 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.9 95.3%
North Carolina 95.0% 16.5% 78.5% 2   21.4 19.5 15.7 12.2 8.5 5.9 4.0 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.0 94.0%
Florida St. 72.2% 4.3% 67.9% 6   2.5 4.5 7.3 8.0 8.9 9.1 8.5 7.8 6.4 4.9 3.7 0.6 0.0 27.8 71.0%
North Carolina St. 49.5% 2.3% 47.2% 9   0.7 1.4 2.7 3.6 4.9 5.5 6.5 7.1 6.1 5.5 4.7 0.9 0.0 50.5 48.3%
Notre Dame 49.2% 2.2% 47.0% 10   0.5 1.1 2.2 3.2 4.4 5.2 5.9 6.5 5.9 6.1 6.6 1.7 0.0 50.8 48.1%
Miami (FL) 32.9% 1.1% 31.8% 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.5 1.1 0.0 67.1 32.1%
Syracuse 32.1% 1.2% 30.9% 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.0 1.1 0.0 67.9 31.3%
Georgia Tech 35.1% 0.9% 34.2% 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.4 3.4 4.5 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.0 3.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 64.9 34.5%
Virginia Tech 28.0% 0.8% 27.2% 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.6 3.7 4.1 5.2 1.5 0.0 72.0 27.5%
Clemson 14.4% 0.4% 14.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.1 2.5 3.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 85.6 14.0%
Boston College 21.8% 0.4% 21.4% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.4 4.1 1.1 0.0 78.3 21.5%
Pittsburgh 6.8% 0.1% 6.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 93.2 6.7%
Wake Forest 7.2% 0.2% 7.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 92.8 7.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Duke 99.5% 0.2% 99.4% 93.0% 69.9% 46.7% 28.9% 17.2% 9.8%
Louisville 98.5% 0.4% 98.3% 89.5% 65.2% 42.5% 25.8% 15.0% 8.5%
Virginia 96.1% 0.9% 95.7% 82.7% 55.8% 33.3% 18.7% 10.1% 5.4%
North Carolina 95.0% 1.1% 94.6% 81.8% 54.9% 32.6% 18.2% 9.7% 5.0%
Florida St. 72.2% 3.1% 70.7% 47.6% 22.6% 10.0% 4.3% 1.9% 0.7%
North Carolina St. 49.5% 4.0% 47.6% 28.8% 11.4% 4.8% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
Notre Dame 49.2% 6.4% 46.1% 27.1% 10.8% 4.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Miami (FL) 32.9% 4.3% 30.8% 17.1% 6.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Syracuse 32.1% 4.6% 29.8% 16.2% 5.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 35.1% 3.5% 33.3% 18.2% 6.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Virginia Tech 28.0% 5.2% 25.4% 12.8% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Clemson 14.4% 2.8% 13.0% 6.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Boston College 21.8% 4.0% 19.6% 9.3% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 6.8% 1.5% 6.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 7.2% 1.1% 6.5% 3.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.4 0.0 0.4 4.0 17.3 33.0 29.6 12.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.2 0.0 0.6 6.0 21.3 34.4 25.9 9.6 1.9 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.4 0.0 0.4 4.5 17.7 32.5 28.9 12.7 2.8 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.5% 3.2 0.5 5.1 20.5 35.3 27.4 9.6 1.5 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 92.7% 1.8 7.3 29.6 39.0 19.9 4.0 0.3 0.0
Final Four 73.8% 1.0 26.2 47.7 22.8 3.2 0.1
Final Game 50.0% 0.6 50.0 43.6 6.5
Champion 30.4% 0.3 69.6 30.4