Duke
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.6#2
Expected Predictive Rating+26.0#2
Pace80.7#21
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+11.2#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 14.3% 14.4% 9.7%
#1 Seed 44.8% 45.0% 29.2%
Top 2 Seed 70.4% 70.7% 53.1%
Top 4 Seed 90.2% 90.4% 72.7%
Top 6 Seed 96.1% 96.2% 86.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.4% 98.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.2% 98.7%
Average Seed 2.2 2.2 3.3
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 98.2% 95.7%
Conference Champion 52.3% 52.5% 36.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round99.3% 99.3% 98.9%
Second Round93.3% 93.3% 86.9%
Sweet Sixteen71.1% 71.3% 53.2%
Elite Eight48.9% 49.1% 30.2%
Final Four31.3% 31.5% 14.0%
Championship Game19.1% 19.2% 9.7%
National Champion11.5% 11.6% 6.5%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 110 - 5
Quad 27 - 116 - 6
Quad 36 - 022 - 6
Quad 44 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 4   Kansas W 68-66 56%     1 - 0 +21.0 -4.1 +24.9
  Nov 08, 2019 171   Colorado St. W 89-55 98%     2 - 0 +30.4 +5.8 +21.7
  Nov 12, 2019 295   Central Arkansas W 105-54 99%     3 - 0 +40.3 +11.3 +22.3
  Nov 15, 2019 161   Georgia St. W 91-67 99%    
  Nov 21, 2019 135   California W 85-66 96%    
  Nov 26, 2019 259   Stephen F. Austin W 92-63 99.6%   
  Nov 29, 2019 144   Winthrop W 87-65 98%    
  Dec 03, 2019 1   @ Michigan St. L 76-79 39%    
  Dec 06, 2019 65   @ Virginia Tech W 75-65 81%    
  Dec 19, 2019 110   Wofford W 87-67 96%    
  Dec 28, 2019 184   Brown W 90-65 99%    
  Dec 31, 2019 78   Boston College W 84-67 94%    
  Jan 04, 2020 55   @ Miami (FL) W 81-72 78%    
  Jan 08, 2020 61   @ Georgia Tech W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 11, 2020 100   Wake Forest W 89-70 95%    
  Jan 14, 2020 77   @ Clemson W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 18, 2020 3   Louisville W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 21, 2020 55   Miami (FL) W 84-69 90%    
  Jan 28, 2020 84   Pittsburgh W 82-65 94%    
  Feb 01, 2020 58   @ Syracuse W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 04, 2020 78   @ Boston College W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 08, 2020 6   @ North Carolina L 85-86 48%    
  Feb 10, 2020 16   Florida St. W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 15, 2020 34   Notre Dame W 78-66 84%    
  Feb 19, 2020 40   @ North Carolina St. W 86-79 71%    
  Feb 22, 2020 65   Virginia Tech W 78-62 91%    
  Feb 25, 2020 100   @ Wake Forest W 86-73 86%    
  Feb 29, 2020 7   @ Virginia L 61-62 48%    
  Mar 02, 2020 40   North Carolina St. W 89-76 86%    
  Mar 07, 2020 6   North Carolina W 88-83 67%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 3.5 8.0 13.6 13.9 8.9 3.7 52.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.4 6.6 6.9 2.8 0.4 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.6 3.2 0.6 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.4 1.4 0.2 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.9 4.4 6.7 10.1 13.5 15.6 16.5 14.3 8.9 3.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.7    3.7
19-1 100.0% 8.9    8.8 0.2
18-2 97.3% 13.9    12.1 1.7 0.0
17-3 82.4% 13.6    9.5 3.7 0.4 0.0
16-4 51.3% 8.0    3.7 3.8 0.6 0.0
15-5 25.7% 3.5    1.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 52.3% 52.3 38.8 11.0 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.7% 100.0% 62.1% 37.9% 1.1 3.5 0.3 100.0%
19-1 8.9% 100.0% 49.5% 50.5% 1.1 7.9 1.0 100.0%
18-2 14.3% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 1.2 11.7 2.5 0.1 100.0%
17-3 16.5% 100.0% 35.6% 64.4% 1.4 10.7 5.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.6% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.7 6.5 7.1 1.7 0.3 100.0%
15-5 13.5% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 2.2 3.4 5.6 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.1% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 2.8 1.0 3.0 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 6.7% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 3.6 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 4.4% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 4.6 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 2.9% 98.6% 7.7% 90.9% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4%
10-10 1.6% 97.5% 2.5% 94.9% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.4%
9-11 1.1% 91.2% 1.3% 89.9% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 91.1%
8-12 0.4% 69.4% 69.4% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 69.4%
7-13 0.2% 21.4% 21.4% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.4%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.4% 28.5% 70.9% 2.2 44.8 25.7 12.4 7.4 3.8 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.6 99.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.0 96.5 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 88.9 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 92.5 7.5