Duke
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.5#2
Expected Predictive Rating+17.2#11
Pace76.7#31
Improvement-2.3#274

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#4
First Shot+8.4#5
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#41
Layup/Dunks+7.3#6
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#166
Freethrows+0.4#145
Improvement+0.2#157

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#5
First Shot+9.1#4
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#105
Layups/Dunks-4.5#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#7
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#4
Freethrows+3.5#16
Improvement-2.5#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 14.5% 15.2% 3.6%
#1 Seed 53.0% 54.7% 26.0%
Top 2 Seed 82.6% 84.0% 59.4%
Top 4 Seed 97.9% 98.3% 91.3%
Top 6 Seed 99.8% 99.9% 98.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.7 1.7 2.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 54.2% 56.0% 25.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.7% 97.7% 96.5%
Sweet Sixteen78.2% 78.5% 73.1%
Elite Eight57.3% 57.6% 52.4%
Final Four38.7% 39.0% 33.9%
Championship Game25.4% 25.6% 22.4%
National Champion16.4% 16.7% 12.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Home) - 94.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 3
Quad 28 - 117 - 4
Quad 39 - 126 - 5
Quad 42 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 1   Kansas W 68-66 48%     1 - 0 +23.0 -2.0 +24.8
  Nov 08, 2019 104   Colorado St. W 89-55 95%     2 - 0 +35.7 +8.8 +24.0
  Nov 12, 2019 305   Central Arkansas W 105-54 99%     3 - 0 +39.5 +11.0 +21.8
  Nov 15, 2019 107   Georgia St. W 74-63 95%     4 - 0 +12.5 -2.3 +14.2
  Nov 21, 2019 168   California W 87-52 96%     5 - 0 +34.7 +21.7 +15.2
  Nov 22, 2019 49   Georgetown W 81-73 84%     6 - 0 +18.0 +0.1 +16.9
  Nov 26, 2019 138   Stephen F. Austin L 83-85 OT 97%     6 - 1 -3.2 -2.9 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2019 127   Winthrop W 83-70 96%     7 - 1 +12.4 +4.2 +7.4
  Dec 03, 2019 4   @ Michigan St. W 87-75 48%     8 - 1 +33.1 +17.5 +14.7
  Dec 06, 2019 66   @ Virginia Tech W 77-63 82%     9 - 1 1 - 0 +24.8 +14.4 +11.1
  Dec 19, 2019 136   Wofford W 86-57 97%     10 - 1 +27.9 +26.0 +6.8
  Dec 28, 2019 202   Brown W 75-50 98%     11 - 1 +19.5 +2.3 +17.9
  Dec 31, 2019 145   Boston College W 88-49 97%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +37.5 +12.4 +23.1
  Jan 04, 2020 98   @ Miami (FL) W 95-62 88%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +41.0 +18.4 +21.0
  Jan 08, 2020 73   @ Georgia Tech W 73-64 83%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +19.2 +6.9 +12.1
  Jan 11, 2020 101   Wake Forest W 90-59 95%     15 - 1 5 - 0 +32.9 +19.0 +14.7
  Jan 14, 2020 74   @ Clemson L 72-79 84%     15 - 2 5 - 1 +3.0 +3.4 -0.1
  Jan 18, 2020 7   Louisville L 73-79 75%     15 - 3 5 - 2 +7.4 +0.0 +8.0
  Jan 21, 2020 98   Miami (FL) W 89-59 95%     16 - 3 6 - 2 +32.2 +12.5 +19.1
  Jan 28, 2020 72   Pittsburgh W 77-61 94%    
  Feb 01, 2020 47   @ Syracuse W 77-70 76%    
  Feb 04, 2020 145   @ Boston College W 80-64 93%    
  Feb 08, 2020 57   @ North Carolina W 81-73 79%    
  Feb 10, 2020 18   Florida St. W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 15, 2020 53   Notre Dame W 83-69 91%    
  Feb 19, 2020 51   @ North Carolina St. W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 22, 2020 66   Virginia Tech W 77-61 93%    
  Feb 25, 2020 101   @ Wake Forest W 83-70 88%    
  Feb 29, 2020 46   @ Virginia W 62-55 75%    
  Mar 02, 2020 51   North Carolina St. W 84-70 90%    
  Mar 07, 2020 57   North Carolina W 84-70 91%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.6 11.1 22.2 17.9 54.2 1st
2nd 0.3 2.5 9.0 12.8 7.6 1.0 33.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 4.0 1.7 0.2 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.6 6.6 15.6 25.6 30.0 18.9 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 94.8% 17.9    14.4 3.5 0.0
17-3 74.1% 22.2    13.1 8.5 0.7
16-4 43.3% 11.1    4.7 5.1 1.2 0.0
15-5 16.7% 2.6    0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0
14-6 4.9% 0.3    0.2 0.2
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 54.2% 54.2 32.8 18.7 2.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 18.9% 100.0% 62.5% 37.5% 1.2 16.1 2.8 0.1 100.0%
17-3 30.0% 100.0% 55.8% 44.2% 1.3 21.4 7.9 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-4 25.6% 100.0% 49.3% 50.7% 1.7 11.8 10.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.6% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 2.3 3.2 6.4 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.6% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 3.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.6% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 4.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-8 0.5% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 4.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.1% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 51.6% 48.4% 1.7 53.0 29.6 10.7 4.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.8% 100.0% 1.1 90.2 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.5% 100.0% 1.2 76.9 22.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2% 100.0% 1.3 75.4 24.0 0.6