Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#9
Expected Predictive Rating+19.2#5
Pace54.5#353
Improvement-1.4#317

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#65
First Shot+1.7#122
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#56
Layup/Dunks+5.6#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#184
Freethrows-4.2#334
Improvement+2.2#11

Defense
Total Defense+12.6#1
First Shot+15.8#1
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#326
Layups/Dunks+8.7#6
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#290
Freethrows+8.7#1
Improvement-3.7#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.9% 5.1% 1.9%
#1 Seed 19.5% 20.1% 8.6%
Top 2 Seed 37.9% 39.0% 19.3%
Top 4 Seed 65.6% 66.9% 43.3%
Top 6 Seed 81.4% 82.4% 62.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.7% 96.2% 88.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.0% 95.4% 87.3%
Average Seed 3.8 3.7 5.0
.500 or above 99.2% 99.4% 95.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 90.2% 80.3%
Conference Champion 14.5% 14.9% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four1.2% 1.1% 2.6%
First Round95.2% 95.7% 87.2%
Second Round79.9% 80.8% 64.8%
Sweet Sixteen51.1% 52.0% 35.1%
Elite Eight28.7% 29.5% 16.2%
Final Four15.6% 15.9% 9.1%
Championship Game8.0% 8.2% 4.1%
National Champion3.8% 3.9% 2.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Neutral) - 94.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 6
Quad 27 - 114 - 7
Quad 35 - 019 - 8
Quad 44 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 62   @ Syracuse W 48-34 69%     1 - 0 +25.9 -7.8 +36.4
  Nov 10, 2019 219   James Madison W 65-34 97%     2 - 0 +24.8 -10.4 +35.8
  Nov 16, 2019 177   Columbia W 60-42 96%     3 - 0 +14.1 -3.9 +20.8
  Nov 19, 2019 70   Vermont W 61-55 87%     4 - 0 +10.7 +4.8 +7.0
  Nov 23, 2019 155   Massachusetts W 67-50 95%    
  Nov 27, 2019 306   Maine W 70-41 99.7%   
  Dec 04, 2019 16   @ Purdue L 56-57 50%    
  Dec 07, 2019 8   North Carolina W 66-63 61%    
  Dec 18, 2019 174   Stony Brook W 67-46 97%    
  Dec 22, 2019 80   South Carolina W 66-52 89%    
  Dec 29, 2019 252   Navy W 66-41 99%    
  Jan 04, 2020 57   Virginia Tech W 61-50 84%    
  Jan 07, 2020 102   @ Boston College W 64-54 81%    
  Jan 11, 2020 62   Syracuse W 61-50 84%    
  Jan 15, 2020 20   @ Florida St. W 59-58 52%    
  Jan 18, 2020 69   @ Georgia Tech W 60-54 70%    
  Jan 20, 2020 39   North Carolina St. W 68-59 78%    
  Jan 26, 2020 106   @ Wake Forest W 65-55 82%    
  Jan 28, 2020 20   Florida St. W 61-55 71%    
  Feb 05, 2020 74   Clemson W 63-50 87%    
  Feb 08, 2020 4   @ Louisville L 56-61 32%    
  Feb 11, 2020 52   Notre Dame W 61-51 82%    
  Feb 15, 2020 8   @ North Carolina L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 19, 2020 102   Boston College W 67-51 91%    
  Feb 22, 2020 95   @ Pittsburgh W 59-50 78%    
  Feb 26, 2020 57   @ Virginia Tech W 58-53 66%    
  Feb 29, 2020 2   Duke L 61-62 49%    
  Mar 04, 2020 51   @ Miami (FL) W 63-59 65%    
  Mar 07, 2020 4   Louisville W 59-58 52%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.2 4.3 2.4 0.7 14.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.8 5.1 1.4 0.2 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.3 6.8 3.6 0.7 0.0 18.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.8 5.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.9 4.5 1.4 0.2 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.5 1.3 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.7 1.1 0.1 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.6 7.2 10.2 12.5 13.8 14.0 12.9 10.0 5.8 2.6 0.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 93.2% 2.4    2.1 0.3 0.0
17-3 74.8% 4.3    2.9 1.3 0.1
16-4 42.2% 4.2    2.0 1.7 0.5 0.0
15-5 16.7% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 8.2 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
18-2 2.6% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 1.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.8% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 1.3 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.0% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.5 5.4 3.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.9% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 2.0 4.3 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.0% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 2.7 2.0 4.6 4.5 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.8% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 3.5 0.5 2.3 4.4 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.5% 99.9% 7.7% 92.2% 4.6 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.6 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 10.2% 99.3% 5.4% 93.9% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.3 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.3%
10-10 7.2% 97.2% 3.2% 94.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 97.1%
9-11 4.6% 88.3% 1.6% 86.8% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.5 88.1%
8-12 2.9% 60.9% 0.7% 60.2% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 60.6%
7-13 1.6% 28.7% 0.2% 28.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 28.6%
6-14 0.8% 14.9% 0.4% 14.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 14.6%
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.7% 15.1% 80.7% 3.8 19.5 18.4 15.1 12.6 9.0 6.8 4.7 3.5 2.6 1.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 95.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 78.0 22.0