Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#46
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#55
Pace54.4#353
Improvement-3.1#296

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#195
First Shot-1.5#228
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#114
Layup/Dunks+3.1#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#270
Freethrows-2.1#316
Improvement+1.3#102

Defense
Total Defense+11.3#2
First Shot+8.7#9
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#17
Layups/Dunks+3.3#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#232
Freethrows+3.9#10
Improvement-4.4#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.9% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 8.2% 11.0% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.4% 65.9% 44.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.8% 64.4% 42.9%
Average Seed 8.7 8.5 9.2
.500 or above 97.4% 99.1% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 74.1% 83.6% 59.5%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four8.5% 8.0% 9.2%
First Round53.1% 62.0% 39.5%
Second Round26.7% 32.1% 18.5%
Sweet Sixteen8.9% 11.1% 5.4%
Elite Eight3.4% 4.3% 1.9%
Final Four1.1% 1.5% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Home) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 7
Quad 27 - 311 - 10
Quad 34 - 215 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 51   @ Syracuse W 48-34 43%     1 - 0 1 - 0 +26.5 -10.7 +39.9
  Nov 10, 2019 266   James Madison W 65-34 95%     2 - 0 +22.3 -12.0 +34.9
  Nov 16, 2019 246   Columbia W 60-42 94%     3 - 0 +10.5 -6.7 +19.9
  Nov 19, 2019 81   Vermont W 61-55 74%     4 - 0 +9.9 +2.2 +8.8
  Nov 23, 2019 198   Massachusetts W 58-46 89%     5 - 0 +9.4 -9.5 +20.5
  Nov 24, 2019 70   Arizona St. W 48-45 62%     6 - 0 +10.5 -8.4 +19.6
  Nov 27, 2019 338   Maine W 46-26 98%     7 - 0 +4.3 -22.1 +31.7
  Dec 04, 2019 19   @ Purdue L 40-69 28%     7 - 1 -12.3 -13.7 -4.8
  Dec 08, 2019 69   North Carolina W 56-47 71%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +13.8 -6.8 +21.8
  Dec 18, 2019 136   Stony Brook W 56-44 86%     9 - 1 +11.0 -3.2 +16.8
  Dec 22, 2019 91   South Carolina L 59-70 76%     9 - 2 -7.9 -4.7 -4.3
  Dec 29, 2019 218   Navy W 65-56 93%     10 - 2 +2.8 +6.4 -1.3
  Jan 04, 2020 60   Virginia Tech W 65-39 68%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +31.6 +2.9 +31.9
  Jan 07, 2020 150   @ Boston College L 53-60 74%     11 - 3 3 - 1 -3.2 -8.8 +4.9
  Jan 11, 2020 51   Syracuse L 55-63 OT 64%     11 - 4 3 - 2 -1.1 -16.0 +14.9
  Jan 15, 2020 15   @ Florida St. L 50-54 26%     11 - 5 3 - 3 +13.2 -6.7 +19.4
  Jan 18, 2020 84   @ Georgia Tech W 63-58 55%     12 - 5 4 - 3 +14.3 +4.8 +10.1
  Jan 20, 2020 43   North Carolina St. W 61-58 60%    
  Jan 26, 2020 112   @ Wake Forest W 60-56 63%    
  Jan 28, 2020 15   Florida St. L 55-56 47%    
  Feb 05, 2020 71   Clemson W 55-49 71%    
  Feb 08, 2020 6   @ Louisville L 50-59 20%    
  Feb 11, 2020 55   Notre Dame W 58-54 66%    
  Feb 15, 2020 69   @ North Carolina W 59-58 50%    
  Feb 19, 2020 150   Boston College W 60-48 88%    
  Feb 22, 2020 68   @ Pittsburgh W 53-52 50%    
  Feb 26, 2020 60   @ Virginia Tech L 53-54 47%    
  Feb 29, 2020 2   Duke L 55-62 27%    
  Mar 04, 2020 85   @ Miami (FL) W 59-58 54%    
  Mar 07, 2020 6   Louisville L 53-56 39%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.1 0.9 0.1 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.5 9.0 6.5 1.8 0.1 21.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 7.7 5.7 1.0 0.0 16.9 5th
6th 0.8 6.2 5.8 1.2 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 6.3 1.5 0.1 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.3 2.5 0.1 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.8 0.9 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 7.7 13.4 18.1 18.6 17.1 11.3 6.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 48.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
15-5 13.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.3% 99.8% 11.6% 88.3% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 6.0% 99.5% 8.7% 90.8% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 11.3% 96.6% 7.1% 89.6% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.2 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.4 96.4%
12-8 17.1% 88.3% 4.7% 83.6% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.4 4.4 3.7 1.5 0.1 2.0 87.7%
11-9 18.6% 69.3% 2.3% 67.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.6 4.4 3.9 0.3 5.7 68.6%
10-10 18.1% 42.1% 1.8% 40.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 10.5 41.0%
9-11 13.4% 12.4% 1.0% 11.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 11.7 11.6%
8-12 7.7% 2.3% 0.3% 2.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.5 2.1%
7-13 3.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.2%
6-14 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 57.4% 3.4% 53.9% 8.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 3.7 6.3 9.1 10.6 11.2 10.6 1.5 0.0 42.6 55.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 57.1 38.1 4.8