Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#7
Expected Predictive Rating+15.2#17
Pace65.3#286
Improvement-4.1#327

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#18
First Shot+5.7#31
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#58
Layup/Dunks+2.2#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#70
Freethrows+0.9#110
Improvement-3.2#322

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#17
First Shot+8.3#11
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#175
Layups/Dunks+7.5#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#201
Freethrows+2.4#46
Improvement-0.9#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 3.7% 0.8%
#1 Seed 10.5% 21.9% 7.3%
Top 2 Seed 27.7% 47.7% 22.0%
Top 4 Seed 62.8% 81.4% 57.5%
Top 6 Seed 84.3% 94.6% 81.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.7% 99.7% 98.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.4% 99.6% 98.1%
Average Seed 4.1 3.0 4.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 21.1% 51.3% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.0% 0.6%
First Round98.5% 99.7% 98.2%
Second Round82.1% 89.6% 80.0%
Sweet Sixteen51.3% 59.7% 48.9%
Elite Eight27.7% 34.8% 25.6%
Final Four14.2% 19.0% 12.8%
Championship Game7.1% 10.1% 6.2%
National Champion3.3% 5.0% 2.8%

Next Game: Duke (Away) - 22.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 6
Quad 28 - 114 - 8
Quad 36 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 84   @ Miami (FL) W 87-74 73%     1 - 0 1 - 0 +22.4 +13.4 +8.6
  Nov 10, 2019 236   Youngstown St. W 78-55 97%     2 - 0 +15.9 +3.2 +13.6
  Nov 13, 2019 115   Indiana St. W 91-62 91%     3 - 0 +29.9 +20.4 +10.3
  Nov 17, 2019 295   NC Central W 87-58 98%     4 - 0 +18.4 +19.7 +1.7
  Nov 20, 2019 310   South Carolina Upstate W 76-50 99%     5 - 0 +14.0 +7.4 +10.0
  Nov 24, 2019 87   Akron W 82-76 88%     6 - 0 +9.3 +4.3 +4.5
  Nov 29, 2019 110   Western Kentucky W 71-54 87%     7 - 0 +20.9 +5.1 +17.5
  Dec 03, 2019 21   Michigan W 58-43 70%     8 - 0 +25.4 -6.7 +33.1
  Dec 06, 2019 70   Pittsburgh W 64-46 85%     9 - 0 2 - 0 +22.7 +6.9 +19.3
  Dec 10, 2019 22   Texas Tech L 57-70 60%     9 - 1 +0.3 -10.6 +11.9
  Dec 14, 2019 323   Eastern Kentucky W 99-67 99%     10 - 1 +19.1 +23.1 -3.4
  Dec 18, 2019 191   Miami (OH) W 70-46 96%     11 - 1 +19.4 -5.1 +25.4
  Dec 28, 2019 16   @ Kentucky L 70-78 OT 45%     11 - 2 +9.1 +6.2 +2.8
  Jan 04, 2020 14   Florida St. L 65-78 66%     11 - 3 2 - 1 -1.5 +4.2 -6.8
  Jan 07, 2020 84   Miami (FL) W 74-58 87%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +19.6 +1.7 +18.3
  Jan 11, 2020 55   @ Notre Dame W 67-64 64%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +15.1 +2.7 +12.5
  Jan 14, 2020 70   @ Pittsburgh W 73-68 OT 70%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +15.5 +4.2 +11.2
  Jan 18, 2020 2   @ Duke L 67-75 22%    
  Jan 22, 2020 80   Georgia Tech W 71-59 87%    
  Jan 25, 2020 69   Clemson W 68-57 85%    
  Jan 29, 2020 153   @ Boston College W 72-60 86%    
  Feb 01, 2020 43   @ North Carolina St. W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 05, 2020 109   Wake Forest W 77-62 92%    
  Feb 08, 2020 46   Virginia W 58-50 78%    
  Feb 12, 2020 80   @ Georgia Tech W 68-62 72%    
  Feb 15, 2020 69   @ Clemson W 65-60 69%    
  Feb 19, 2020 51   Syracuse W 72-63 80%    
  Feb 22, 2020 71   North Carolina W 76-65 85%    
  Feb 24, 2020 14   @ Florida St. L 66-67 44%    
  Mar 01, 2020 59   Virginia Tech W 69-59 83%    
  Mar 07, 2020 46   @ Virginia W 55-52 59%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.0 8.0 5.3 1.1 21.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.8 13.9 13.8 6.0 0.5 42.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.5 9.2 6.6 1.7 0.1 25.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.4 0.8 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.5 10.6 17.0 21.9 20.5 14.1 5.8 1.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1
18-2 91.5% 5.3    3.9 1.4 0.0
17-3 56.8% 8.0    3.9 3.8 0.3
16-4 24.6% 5.0    1.7 2.7 0.6 0.0
15-5 6.4% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0
14-6 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.1% 21.1 10.9 8.7 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.3 0.8 0.3 100.0%
18-2 5.8% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1.6 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-3 14.1% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 2.1 4.0 6.0 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 20.5% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.9 2.2 5.8 6.6 4.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 21.9% 100.0% 17.5% 82.4% 3.9 0.5 2.4 5.8 6.6 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 17.0% 99.6% 14.7% 84.9% 5.1 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.9 4.5 3.6 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
13-7 10.6% 98.5% 11.3% 87.3% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.5 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.4%
12-8 5.5% 94.8% 8.0% 86.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 94.4%
11-9 2.4% 84.4% 5.9% 78.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.4 83.4%
10-10 0.7% 68.6% 2.9% 65.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 67.7%
9-11 0.2% 35.0% 2.5% 32.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 33.3%
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.7% 18.6% 80.2% 4.1 10.5 17.1 17.9 17.3 12.4 9.0 6.4 3.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.0 1.3 98.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 83.5 16.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 71.0 29.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 66.7 33.3