Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#4
Expected Predictive Rating+18.4#10
Pace68.0#228
Improvement-0.2#206

Offense
Total Offense+11.7#1
First Shot+10.8#3
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#132
Layup/Dunks+5.9#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#97
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#47
Freethrows-1.9#276
Improvement+0.8#49

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#16
First Shot+9.6#3
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#270
Layups/Dunks+7.3#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#219
Freethrows+2.8#43
Improvement-1.0#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 10.3% 10.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 32.2% 32.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 55.0% 55.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 81.8% 81.8% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 91.8% 91.8% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.6% 98.6% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.2% 98.2% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.8 2.8 4.0
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 97.3% 100.0%
Conference Champion 27.3% 27.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round98.5% 98.5% 100.0%
Second Round89.7% 89.8% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen64.9% 65.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight41.3% 41.4% 0.0%
Final Four25.2% 25.2% 0.0%
Championship Game14.5% 14.5% 0.0%
National Champion8.0% 8.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 5
Quad 27 - 116 - 6
Quad 35 - 021 - 7
Quad 46 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 51   @ Miami (FL) W 87-74 75%     1 - 0 +25.6 +16.6 +8.7
  Nov 10, 2019 243   Youngstown St. W 78-55 99%     2 - 0 +15.7 +2.3 +14.4
  Nov 13, 2019 160   Indiana St. W 91-62 97%     3 - 0 +25.8 +17.6 +9.0
  Nov 17, 2019 321   NC Central W 87-58 99%     4 - 0 +15.5 +20.3 -1.8
  Nov 20, 2019 341   South Carolina Upstate W 90-54 99.9%   
  Nov 24, 2019 137   Akron W 82-61 97%    
  Nov 29, 2019 78   Western Kentucky W 80-67 88%    
  Dec 03, 2019 30   Michigan W 73-63 84%    
  Dec 06, 2019 96   Pittsburgh W 77-60 94%    
  Dec 10, 2019 11   Texas Tech W 73-70 60%    
  Dec 14, 2019 264   Eastern Kentucky W 95-67 99%    
  Dec 18, 2019 159   Miami (OH) W 84-61 99%    
  Dec 28, 2019 6   @ Kentucky L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 04, 2020 23   Florida St. W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 07, 2020 51   Miami (FL) W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 11, 2020 43   @ Notre Dame W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 14, 2020 96   @ Pittsburgh W 74-63 85%    
  Jan 18, 2020 2   @ Duke L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 22, 2020 66   Georgia Tech W 76-62 89%    
  Jan 25, 2020 73   Clemson W 77-62 90%    
  Jan 29, 2020 99   @ Boston College W 79-67 85%    
  Feb 01, 2020 38   @ North Carolina St. W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 05, 2020 106   Wake Forest W 83-64 94%    
  Feb 08, 2020 8   Virginia W 62-57 67%    
  Feb 12, 2020 66   @ Georgia Tech W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 15, 2020 73   @ Clemson W 74-65 79%    
  Feb 19, 2020 59   Syracuse W 74-60 87%    
  Feb 22, 2020 7   North Carolina W 83-78 66%    
  Feb 24, 2020 23   @ Florida St. W 74-70 63%    
  Mar 01, 2020 61   Virginia Tech W 73-59 88%    
  Mar 07, 2020 8   @ Virginia L 59-60 47%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.5 5.7 8.4 7.6 2.3 27.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.4 8.7 8.7 3.8 0.6 27.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.4 7.0 4.7 0.8 0.1 18.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 3.5 4.1 2.3 0.3 10.8 4th
5th 0.5 1.9 2.8 1.4 0.2 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.8 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.5 7th
8th 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 3.5 5.3 8.7 10.9 14.6 16.3 15.2 12.4 8.2 2.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.3    2.2 0.1
18-2 92.3% 7.6    6.1 1.5
17-3 68.2% 8.4    6.1 2.1 0.2
16-4 37.5% 5.7    2.6 2.3 0.8 0.0
15-5 15.5% 2.5    0.7 1.2 0.7
14-6 5.0% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.3% 27.3 17.8 7.6 1.9 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.3% 100.0% 62.3% 37.7% 1.1 2.1 0.2 100.0%
18-2 8.2% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 1.2 6.8 1.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 12.4% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 1.3 8.9 3.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
16-4 15.2% 100.0% 28.7% 71.3% 1.6 7.8 5.6 1.6 0.2 100.0%
15-5 16.3% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 2.2 4.6 6.0 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-6 14.6% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 2.8 1.7 5.1 4.4 2.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 100.0%
13-7 10.9% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.8 0.3 1.2 3.7 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 8.7% 98.4% 10.7% 87.7% 4.5 0.2 2.0 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 98.2%
11-9 5.3% 99.9% 5.1% 94.8% 5.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9%
10-10 3.5% 97.9% 7.0% 90.9% 7.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.7%
9-11 1.4% 80.4% 0.7% 79.7% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 80.3%
8-12 0.7% 33.6% 33.6% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 33.6%
7-13 0.4% 48.8% 48.8% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 48.8%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.6% 23.8% 74.8% 2.8 32.2 22.9 16.3 10.5 6.3 3.7 3.2 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.4 98.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.0 98.2 1.8